Abstract
Despite the unceasing efforts of the international community to halt North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, North Korea’s nuclear development and missile technology have aggressively progressed over time. Why did the efforts fail and what would be the new direction to fix the problem, if necessary? To answer these central questions, this paper attempts to analyze the problems of sanctions on North Korea and assess North Korea’s nuclear development and capability. This paper suggests that a recalibration of policy measures, including a dual–track strategy that, on the one hand leads to internal change in the North, while on the other, results in strong external pressure, continues to be significant for the ultimate resolution of North Korea’s nuclear quandaries. If left alone, the nuclear situation in North Korea may likely shift from the previously limited problem of denuclearization on the Korean peninsula to the broader global concern of nonproliferation.
Country or Region: North Korea
Chang, Parris
Abstract
North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear arms, and the U.S. effort to stop it, date back to the 1990s. In mid-1994, the United States was ready to use force—to launch a surgical strike with cruise missiles on the North Korean reprocessing facility at Yongbyon, which produces plutonium–the material for the nuclear bomb. At the last minute, North Korea’s leader Kim Il Sung invited former U.S. president Jimmy Carter to Pyongyang to salvage the crisis. Thereafter, the United States and North Korean officials met in Geneva and worked out a deal, the Agreed Framework, in December 1994, thereby Pyongyang agreed to suspend its plutonium program, while the United States, the ROK and Japan would build two light-water reactors for North Korea to generate electric power. The Americans find North Korean officials skillful in deception and duplicity, which is rather difficult to deal with. In spite of their public commitments, the North Koreans are determined to possess nuclear arms and find ways to continue their quest. They also excel in brinkmanship—they provoke and make trouble, and then extol concessions/rewards for cooperation. President Donald Trump, much like his predecessors, erroneously believes that China is willing and has the economic leverage and political influence to rein in Pyongyang’s leadership. Hence, Trump has tried to “outsource” North Korea’s nuclear threat to Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the wake of their summit meeting in April. Trump has offered a better trade deal to China, but Xi has been reluctant–to White House officials, Trump’s “bet” is not paying off. As the threat perception of China and the United States is different, and the interest and agenda of the two nations in the Asia–Pacific are also vastly different, Xi cannot be expected to do Trump’s bidding on North Korea. Xi’s primary concern is to prevent U.S. military attacks on North Korea that would result in the collapse of Kim Jong Un’s regime, and a pro-U.S. government in North Korea. Nor does Xi want to implement heavy sanctions on Pyongyang which could destabilize Kim’s regime and drive hundreds of thousands of refugees into China.
Park, Chan Kwoun
Abstract
A successful North Korea–U.S. summit is expected to make a breakthrough in the denuclearization of the North. Nevertheless, considering the lessons learned from past denuclearization negotiations, and Pyongyang’s nuclear capacity and will for nuclear development, a solely optimistic outlook is not advisable. In order to pursue successful denuclearization negotiations, a precise understanding of new negotiation conditions, particularly each party’s negotiation strategy and leverage, and application of them is very important. Also, a substantive negotiation strategy and roadmap for the denuclearization should be prepared to be able to pressure and reach an agreement with North Korea. Taking account of the negotiation leverage of North Korea and the United States, a one-sided negotiation with North Korea surrendering to the United States is not likely. This paper aims to provide a practical negotiation strategy and a roadmap for the denuclearization of North Korea reflecting the current security situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula.
Wilson, Roland B., and Soyoung Kwon
Abstract
This paper analyzes how U.S. foreign policy, based on symmetry or asymmetry, drives international relations, and can lead to positive or negative state-to-state relations. The paper uses the case of U.S. foreign policy towards North Korea to discuss the importance of position and power when dealing with societies and nations. The paper discloses that U.S. foreign policy approach towards North Korea has not significantly evolved over the past 60 years regardless of administration and that the current paradigm of dealing with complex state-to-state issues only works to sustain negative relations. The paper further finds that the continued negative relations and deep-rooted and protracted conflict between the United States and North Korea is intimately connected to the way in which the United States handles state-to-state relationships. On the basis of these observations, the paper recommends alternative multi-dimensional foreign policy approaches based on conflict analysis and resolution methods and tools needed to successfully transform the relationship and build sustainable peace with North Korea and in the East Asia Region.
Fan, Jishe
Abstract
The North Korea nuclear challenge, urgent on the US foreign policy agenda since Donald Trump took office, has prompted unilateral,bilateral and multilateral moves to address rising tension on the peninsula. The underlying logic of US policy, which in November placed the DPRK back on the list of state sponsors of terrorism, promotes negotiation by imposing Maximum Pressure and by enlisting China’s support. Possibly, North Korea will return to negotiations with its nuclear and missile development suspended temporarily. Other possibilities are a stalemate with North Korea joining the ranks of countries with credible nuclear deterrent, or an emerging crisis that escalates to military or other conflict. The lingering uncertainty is central to northeast Asia security.
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Li, Jun
Abstract
Despite strong opposition from China and Russia, the US and South Korea proceeded with THAAD deployment, further escalating tension on the Korean Peninsula. As the issue developed, little attention was paid to how North Korea looked at THAAD, while more people and media reports were inclined to believe that “North Korea factor” or “North Korea’s increasing nuclear-missile threat” was the trigger or root cause of American and South Korean insistence on deploying THAAD. Hence, in order to help raise awareness about the actuality and course of this issue, the author of this paper intends to review and analyze North Korea’s attitude and stance on the THAAD issue, by looking at North Korean comments on the US deployment of THAAD in South Korea.
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Sun, Ru
Abstract
The THAAD issue stirs up the strategic security situation in Northeast Asia and the world, damaging mutual trust between China and South Korea as well as that between China and the United States,testing China’s ability to safeguard strategic security interests and handle relations with neighboring countries and among major powers.China’s reaction attracts wide attention,including misunderstanding and criticism. There is a view that the alliance between the United States and South Korea is dominated by the United States and followed by South Korea,marked by deployment of THAAD. China’s countermeasures should be targeted at the United States.China should not set the South Korea as the main target. There is also a view that China overreacted,and that China should confine responses to military matters and ought not to expand them to areas of economy and trade as well as cultural exchange. Other opinions hold that the deployment of THAAD is related to the North Korea issue and that China should oppose North Korean nuclear buildup instead of THAAD.
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Chang, Kiyoung, and Choongkoo Lee
Abstract
This article investigates South Korean views on how to deal with the two major security issues regarding North Korea: its nuclear threat and regime instability. In this Special Section, the article analyzes the ongoing debate in South Korea over the government’s policy toward North Korea in regard to these two issues. It argues that uncertainties about these two major issues are shaping the regional order in East Asia. In particular, the different levels of cooperation between South Korea and the United States may affect the regional security order in East Asia. In analyzing policy options available to South Korea, the riskiest option would be to employ early preemptive attacks and accelerate the collapse of North Korea given the security dilemma-driven action‒reaction in East Asia. Given that the role of China has become the most crucial factor in dealing with North Korea, the most promising strategy would be to reinforce guarantees of extended nuclear deterrence and prompt a soft-landing unification.
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Lai, Christina
Abstract
Over the last two decades, China has experienced one of the most dramatic and sustained periods of economic growth in world history. China’s use of economic statecraft provides an important venue in which to examine the role of unacknowledged ‘coercive diplomacy’ within the context of China’s ‘peaceful rise discourse.’ In contrast to Western countries, which have overtly used sanctions and other forms of economic coercion, China has publicly denied any such policies while at the same time quietly pursuing them. China’s denial of using coercive economic statecraft has muted the reactions of neighboring publics and government, but it cannot entirely forestall them. Without seriously undermining China’s ‘peaceful-rising’ image, a more explicit statement from Beijing regarding its coercive economic measure could provide deterrence and assurance to China’s neighbors in resolving the disputes. This article first surveys existing literature on economic statecraft focusing on the coercive aspects of such strategies. Second, it presents an in-depth case study on how China uses economic leverages over its neighbors in East Asia: North Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. Finally, it highlights the limits of China’s economic statecraft within the constraints of China’s ‘peaceful rise’ discourse. It concludes with implications for Asian politics and beyond.
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Kong, Tat Yan
Abstract
In response to the challenge of unstable North Korea (weak economy, weapons of mass destruction [WMD] development), China has followed an engagement-oriented strategy based on diplomatic persuasion, economic interaction and moderate economic sanctions. Intensified engagement (2009–2012) facilitated North Korean convergence with China in respect of economic reform but divergence has persisted over WMD development. Despite the widening of divergence since 2013, China has refrained from applying crippling sanctions. This article seeks to explain these diverging results and their implications for China’s strategy towards North Korea. Reviewing recent literature and data, it will argue that Chinese economic input reinforced the trend of economic reform that formed the basis of political consolidation under the new hereditary regime. On the other hand, the prospect of stable dependence on China ran counter to that regime’s pursuit of WMDs as the basis of security and diplomatic diversification. These mixed results reveal the limits of China’s strategy: its economic input involuntarily reinforces North Korea’s WMD potential but it is not prepared to accept the risks of enforcing WMD restraint by crippling sanctions either. With limited room for manoeuvre, the attainment of China’s strategic objectives ultimately depends upon policy change from the US or South Korea.
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McCarthy, Mary M
Summary
From a nuclear North Korea and territorial disputes in the East China Sea, to global climate change and Asia-Pacific free trade agreements, Japan is at the center of some of the most challenging issues that the world faces today. Taking an interdisciplinary approach, comprising contributions from the fields of politics, sociology, history, and gender studies, this handbook creates a comprehensive and innovative overview of the field, investigating the widening variety of interests, sometimes competing, that constitute Japanese foreign policy.
Organized topically, it is divided into sections, including:
• Japan’s evolving foreign policy landscape
• Global environmental and sustainable development
• International and national security
• International political economy
• International norms and civil society.
Providing an evaluation of the key actors, institutions, and networks influencing Japanese foreign policy, the Routledge Handbook of Japanese Foreign Policy is an essential resource for students and scholars of Japanese and Asian Politics, International Relations, and Foreign Policy.
Ku, Yangmo, Inyeop Lee, and Jongseok Woo
Summary
Politics in North and South Korea provides students with a comprehensive understanding of the political dynamics of the two Koreas. Giving equal weight to North and South Korea, the authors trace the history of political and economic development and international relations of the Korean peninsula, showing how South Korea became democratized and how Juche ideology has affected the establishment and operation of a totalitarian system in North Korea.
Written in a straightforward, jargon free manner, this textbook utilizes both historical-institutional approaches and quantitative evidence to analyse the political dimensions of a wide variety of issues including:
- Legacies of early-twentieth-century Japanese colonial rule
- South Korean democratization and democratic consolidation
- South Korean diplomacy and North Korean nuclear crises
- The economic development of both North and South Korea
- The three-generation power succession in North Korea
- North Korean human rights issues
- Inter-Korean relations and reunification
This textbook will be essential reading for students of Korean Politics and is also suitable for undergraduate and postgraduate courses on East Asian Politics, Asian Studies, and International Relations.
Hwang, Wonjae
Summary
South Korea has experienced new challenges both internally and externally with respect to its foreign policies. Internally, democratization has changed political terrain for domestic and international politics. Democratization and the information revolution have reinvigorated civic life and citizens have become active in expressing very divergent and often polarized views on foreign policies. Democratization also promotes South Korean nationalism. Rising nationalist sentiments make it difficult for the U.S. to effectively handle regional security-related issues such as the North Korean nuclear program, balancing against China, and dealing with the potential Sino-Japanese conflict.
Externally, globalization has brought significant changes to South Korea’s foreign policies. Economic dimension and issues rather than security-related issues become salient and important. For example, although security concerns are still dominant in Korean society, economic interests necessitate South Korea improve its relations with China and redefine its political position between the U.S. and China. Globalization has also promoted Korea’s national interests to reach out to other countries. The Korean government has tried to develop new economic partnerships with developing countries for the purpose of securing energy and natural resources and expanding its soft power.
Economic globalization and democratization have brought about changes in South Korea that raise many interesting questions with respect to foreign policy. Has South Korea’s rise as an economic power and a democracy changed its relationship with neighboring powers? Does economic integration between South Korea and China reshape their relationship? How about its impact on U.S.-Korea relations? Are geopolitical and security-related concerns still the dominant factor in explaining South Korea’s foreign policies? Does economic integration between Korea and Japan help to reduce tensions or emotional animosities that derive from historical disputes? Has South Korea, as a growing economic power, sought to forge relations with other middle or small powers beyond the confines of its region? Overall, this book theoretically and empirically explores how democratization and economic globalization have changed domestic politics in South Korea and reshaped its foreign policies.
Esfahani, Marzieh Kouhi, and Ariabarzan Mohammadi, eds
Summary
Asia has the world’s highest concentration of nuclear weapons and the most significant recent developments related to nuclear proliferation, as well as the world’s most critical conflicts and considerable political instability. The containment and prevention of nuclear proliferation, especially in Asia, continues to be a grave concern for the international community. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the state of nuclear arsenals, nuclear ambitions and nuclear threats across different parts of Asia. It covers the Middle East (including Israel), China, India-Pakistan and their confrontation, as well as North Korea. It discusses the conventional warfare risks, risks from non-state armed groups, and examines the attempts to limit and control nuclear weapons, both international initiatives and American diplomacy and interventions. The book concludes by assessing the possibility of nuclear revival, the potential outcomes of international approaches to nuclear disarmament, and the efficacy of coercive diplomacy in containing nuclear proliferation.
Dittmer, Lowell
Summary
This balanced and deeply informed book provides a comprehensive account of China’s Asia policy since the Cold War. Lowell Dittmer traces the PRC’s policy toward its Asian neighbors in the context of the country’s move from a developing nation to a great power, capable of playing a role in world politics commensurate with its remarkable economic rise. The author considers China’s bilateral relations with Russia, Central Asia, South and Southeast Asia, and Australia. Each of these relationships is also viewed in terms of China’s rivalry with the United States, which has viewed China’s rise with admiration tinged with a certain foreboding. Thus, Dittmer employs a triangular analysis to understand Beijing’s attempt to expand in Asia while at the same time deterring Washington’s interference. Reframing the international relations of Asia in a thought-provoking and informed manner, this important book presents a panoramic view of the dynamics at work on all sides of China.
