Joshi, Yogesh, and Frank O’Donnell

Abstract
New Delhi’s plans for nuclear-armed submarines could undermine efforts to restrict fissile materials, and set off a naval arms race.
India has become a more or less accepted member of the global nuclear order, but the state’s emerging undersea deterrent continues to be a source of concern. Its efforts to create nuclear-armed submarines began in the 1980s, and technical progress was slow during the project’s first three decades. India has recently made some bold strides, however, and in 2009 unveiled its first nuclear submarine, INS Arihant. The boat is now undergoing sea trials, and is scheduled to be introduced into the Indian Navy by early 2015. Several similar vessels are under construction: New Delhi plans to field a fleet of between four and six nuclear-armed submarines by the end of the decade.
The project presents three challenges to the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The first of these relates to naval propulsion systems based on highly enriched uranium (HEU), a substance that is comparatively easy to use in weapons manufacturing. Indeed, the nuclear weapons India tested in May 1998 used HEU ostensibly produced for its naval programme. This danger is compounded by a weak verification regime: both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the proposed Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty allow states to pursue uranium enrichment for naval nuclear reactors without safeguards.
Secondly, as India prepares to equip its nuclear submarines with ballistic and cruise missiles, doubts are being voiced over the effectiveness of its warhead designs. The alleged failure of the 1998 tests, which partly con-cerned miniaturisation, makes it unclear whether India has created nuclear warheads small enough to fit into the missile tubes of a nuclear submarine. New Delhi will face immense pressure from within its strategic community to conduct further tests to allay such doubts.
Lastly, the disruption caused by the introduction of the Arihant is likely to affect India’s strategic rivalries with China and Pakistan, which could feel compelled to ensure that Islamabad maintains parity with the new nuclear force. In light of such dangers, New Delhi must act cautiously if the Arihant is to support both Indian and global security.
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