Jones, Peter

Abstract
Iran’s power in the Middle East has always been as a spoiler. The Arab Spring could have been an opportunity to build, but Tehran has instead lost influence.
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Cairo on 5 February 2013 was, potentially, an historic event. Iran and Egypt have had decidedly difficult relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, mirroring the suspicion with which the Iranian regime has been treated across the region. The advent of an Islamic government in Egypt provided an opportunity to improve the situation. But the visit was a bust. Indeed, relations have, if anything, worsened since the outbreak of fighting in Syria, which has pitted Iran against much of the Arab world once again.
In many ways, the visit is an emblem for the impact of the Arab Spring on Iran’s standing across the Middle East. Initially, Iran greeted the uprisings with increasing optimism. Though as much of a surprise in Tehran as anywhere else, they appeared to fulfil long-held dreams of the Islamic Republic; anti-Iranian regimes were toppled across the region, Islamic political parties promised to do well in many important countries and US influence in the Middle East seemed to diminish. But then a strange thing happened: the region did not move in Tehran’s favour. In fact, the trend seems to be going in the opposite direction. Over the course of the Arab Spring to date, we have witnessed emotions in Iran change from initial optimism, to growing concern, to outright worry. It now appears that Iran is a net loser from the Arab Spring, and this trend is likely to intensify. There are three reasons for this.
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