Introduction
US security interest in the Republic of Korea has two dimensions. One is regional, and the other is global. Since the Korean War (1950-53) the US has remained committed to stabilizing the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia. The US security engagement in South Korea supports US economic and other interests in Japan and strengthens US ability to affect the complex relationship among the four major whose interests converge on the peninsula.
South Korean security interest in the US engagement has long been determined by its security needs based on the prevailing military balance on the Korean peninsula. After the collapse the Soviet Union and South Korean diplomatic success in normalization with China, South Korea has been in a favorable position to confront the North Korean threat, although North Korea still seems an unpredictable powder keg. But the continuing US presence is still viewed by South Koreans as a stabilizing factor.
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Country or Region: United States
Harris, Stuart
Introduction
In the immediate post-Cold War period, scholars and policy makers looking at strategic issues in the region tended to concentrate on Japan’s prospective military capacities and intentions. China’s strategic importance was judged to have diminished with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yet, only a few years later, discussion about security issues in the region now centres on China.
Much of the literature continues to see regional security issues within the traditional strategic focus, the bilateral security relationships between the US and countries in the region. Although there are other important bilateral US arrangements with Australia, Korea and the Philippines, and broader regional security relationships such as the Five Power Defence Arrangement (FPDA), the bilateral relationship between the US and Japan remains pivotal, with substantial implications for the regional security order.
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Grinter, Lawrence
Introduction
This essay surveys the patterns of East Asian and South Asian nuclear WMD proliferation and examines how US policy, unilaterally and in concert with other countries and organizations, has sought to influence the phenomena. Recommendations for more flexible and realistic US policies toward Asian proliferation, as part of our larger proliferation efforts, conclude the paper. We define proliferation as the intent to acquire, or the possession WMD. The original five declared nuclear weapons states—the United States, the USSR/Russia, Great Britain, France, and China—are not considered proliferators, although some activites by these countries have promoted proliferation among Third World states, for example Israel, Pakistan, and Iran.
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Gong, Gerrit W., and Chi J. Leng
Introduction
For the 40 years from 1949 to 1989, Sino-Soviet-US relations strongly influenced the political, economic, and security structure of East Asia.
Today, though Beijing, Tokyo, and Washington would each decry any intent of “great power chauvinism,” “hegemonism,” “condominium,” or “spheres of influence within a balance of power,” Sino-Japanese-US relations now increasingly set the broad contours of East Asia’s political, economic, and security relations. Within this emerging flexible framework, the Republic of Korea, the ASEAN countries, and others also shape regional direction and dynamics. This is especially true as the shifting global competitive realities of the post-Cold War information age affect an ongoing period of structural adjustment which confronts each country in the world, regardless of its size, geopolitical position, or stage of political, economic, or social development.
Through an examination of US-Japanese-Chinese relations, this paper explores some of these factors of global and regional structural adjustment, with particular reference to possible implications for Korea. It does so in three parts: I. Conceptual Contours of the Post-Cold War World Affecting US-Japanese-Chinese Relations II. Washington, Beijing, Tokyo: Trilateral Relations Amidst Domestic Changes III. New Issues and Outlooks
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Faust, John R
Introduction
In the 20th century, Europe and Asia have been major arenas for two world wars and nearly fifty years of Cold War. Along with North America, they have been the centers of the industrial, and more recently, the post-industrial revolutions, as well as the exporters of imperialism and neoimperialism. While the former conquered the world militarily, the latter controlled it after World War II through economic rather than military domination, sometimes described as neomercantilism. Cynics in the US have been heard to say that “Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, lost World War II, and now they own most of Hawaii.”
The above analysis falls under the rubric of the realist paradigm (RP). In its extreme form, within states, relationships are authoritarian, even totalitarian, and nondemocratic, benefiting ruling elites at the expense of the masses, through dominant subordinate relationships. Internationally, both in motivation and practice, the RP is based on threats, force, superior-inferior psychology, and the exploitation of others rather than relationships based on mutual self-interest and respect.
On the other hand, North America, Europe and Asia are increasingly moving towards the liberal paradigm (LP), which seeks peace, respect, political-democratic solutions (rather than the threat or use of coercion), economic development and well being for the masses as well as the elites, a marketplace of ideas as well as economic freedom, and the building of communities, both within and between nations.
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Bracken, Paul
Introduction
The continued growth of regional navies in Northeast Asia following the end of the Cold War is an important development. In statements made in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War it was argued that the United States should remain militarily present in order to stabilize relations in the region. What was not considered, however, was that the military in the region would themselves change, expanding in size and scope. Had the maritime forces in the region remained static over the past decade, the United States would have found a stabilizing role a relatively easy one to carry out.
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Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, and Naoyuki Yoshino
Abstract
This article examines the impact of US monetary policy as the world dominant monetary policy on the global crude oil prices and investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on two real macro variables (gross domestic product [GDP] and inflation rate) of three global major crude oil consumers: the People’s Republic of China (an emerging economy), and Japan and the United States (developed economies). To assess the relationship between monetary variables, crude oil prices and macro variables, the authors adopt an N-variable structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The results suggest that the monetary policy had a significant positive impact on oil prices during 2001–13 through two different channels (quantitative easing and exchange rate fluctuations). Also, the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers’ GDP growth is much milder than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. However, the impact on the China’s inflation rate is found to be less severe compared to the two developed countries.
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Sweet, William
Summary
The essential primer for understanding climate diplomacy, describing both the major players and the path to progress, from the 1992 Rio Summit to the 2015 Paris Climate Conference Climate Diplomacy from Rio to Paris is the first accessible overview of climate diplomacy in its first quarter century. The author, who has reported on energy and climate for two decades, provides readers with a nuanced account of the major players and their interests—from the United States, the European Union, and China to environmental organizations, the United Nations, and the Vatican—and analyzes the outcomes of the major climate conferences at Rio, Kyoto, Copenhagen, and Paris.
Longfan, Jiang, and Wang Haifan
Abstract
After the second launch of the “Kwangmyongsong-3” satellite and the third nuclear test, North Korea’s peripheral diplomacy was put in a tight spot. The Sino-DPRK relationship has stepped into a rough patch; the DPRK-US relationship remains in a stalemate condition; and the DPRK-Russia relationship has warmed up but is still unable to rapidly change the internal and external difficulties facing North Korea. Under these circumstances, North Korea has to make a concession on the “Abduction Issue”, which successfully prompted Japan to lift its unilateral sanctions. North Korea’s concession on the “Abduction Issue” this time was an attempt to break through its peripheral diplomatic dilemma. However, the brief easing of the DPRK-Japan relationship due to the progress from the “Abduction Issue” does not mean that the relationship between these two countries will have a substantive change. Subject to the Japan-US alliance, the US-Japan-ROK trilateral coordination mechanism and Japan’s position on North Korea’s nuclear and missile issues, Japan’s policy towards DPRK is difficult to be substantively changed and adjusted.
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Lee, Wang Hwi
Abstract
This paper explores the strategic implications of the KORUS FTA. Despite their strained relationship, the US chose Korea as its second FTA partner in East Asia. To understand the US’s motivation, the FTA should not be viewed as a mere bilateral trade agreement, but as a part of a multilateral network of trade agreements. Its geographical position between China and Japan increases the geo-economic importance of Korea. The US is sending a signal to China through the trade agreement that the US will not surrender its economic hegemony in the region. In this regard, the FTA has generated a series of countervailing proposals from China, Japan and the EU in response to the expected discrimination that their products will encounter in the US and Korean markets through substantial trade diversion and the possibility of diplomatic isolation that they, as the US’s other main trading partners, could experience.
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Lee, Manhee
Abstract
This paper explores whether Japan’s economic security directions have been shaped independently or dependently in its relations with the U.S. since the cold war by posing the Yoshida Doctrine as an analytical framework. At the end of the cold war, Japan, who faced an alliance dilemma because of the U.S.’s declining power, chose to depart from the Yoshida Doctrine and pursue its own independent path. This decision, however, increased Japan’s sensitivity, vulnerability, and dependence on China. The Senkaku Islands dispute forced Japan to realize the countless costs in opportunities embedded in a growing asymmetrical interdependence on China. This paper calls it “Japan’s China Dilemma.” Japan began to understand the value of the TPP agreement as a guarantee of its economic security and an instrument to rebuild its relations with the U.S. Abe’s determination, announced on March 12, 2013, indicated that Japan intended to adopt a dependent road, that is, the return to the Yoshida Doctrine as a way to achieve its economic security. However, this change in policy directions could cause a vicious cycle of action-reaction in Japan-Sino relations, as seen in China’s bid to redesign the ADIZ and Japan’s reinterpretation of its right to collective self-defense. This spiral will pressure Japan to be more dependent on the U.S.-led TPP, which serves to consolidate the bilateral network as TYPE I.
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Jackson, Van
Summary
Charting the turbulent history of US-North Korean affairs from the 1960s through to 2010, Rival Reputations explores how past incidents and crises can be relied upon to help determine threat credibility and the willingness of an adversary to resort to violence. Using reputation as the framework, this book answers some of the most vexing questions regarding both US and North Korean foreign policy. These include how they have managed to evade war, why North Korea – a much weaker power – has not been deterred by superior American military power from repeated violent provocations against the United States and South Korea, and why US officials in every administration have rarely taken North Korean threats seriously. Van Jackson urges us to jettison the conventional view of North Korean threats and violence as part of a ‘cycle’ of provocation and instead to recognize them as part of a pattern of rivalry inherent in North Korea’s foreign relations.
Xintian, Yu
Abstract
Northeast Asia is a particularly complex area in the world, especially in terms of security. China advocates a new concept of security based on equality, mutual benefits, consultation and cooperation. China is making great efforts to reduce regional hot issues and lower regional tensions under the conditions that a regional security framework has not been completely established. In recent years, China has actively participated in regional security cooperation and promoted the construction of a security institution. The Six-Party Talks are of great significance not only for resolving the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula, but also for forming a relatively formal framework of security organization. Among the various East Asian security cooperative relationships, that of China–Japan–Korea is critical with regard to East Asian stability. At the same time, however, China should face and deal with some problems concerning the promotion of Northeast Asian security cooperation such as how to regard the presence of US–Japan and US–Korean military alliance, let Korea play the dominating role in Northeast Asian security cooperation and eliminate the Cold War mentality.
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Waldron, Arthur
Abstract
China’s rise and clear ambition to change Asia poses both tactical and strategic questions, long neglected in Japan. Tactically, territorial challenges can be countered effectively by use of Anti-Access Area Denial [A2/AD] tactics, as Japan is now doing. The strategic issues: how to deal with a hostile nuclear super-power neighbor, counter nuclear blackmail, and so forth, are far more difficult. This author believes that US “extended deterrence” no longer exists. Washington in fact would never use nuclear weapons to defend Japan, whatever promises have been made. The only answer, and one that decreases rather than increases the possibility of conflict, is for Japan to acquire within a decade a minimal nuclear deterrent, too small for war-making but adequate to prevent attack, such as those maintained by Britain and France, who know America best. Without such a deterrent Japan will be defenseless against inevitable Chinese nuclear threats and blackmail.
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Tan, Andrew T H
Abstract
After the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, US measures to improve counter-terrorism and maritime security in the Malay Archipelago, home to the world’s largest population of Muslims, have led to a heightened US role and presence in the region. However, this has sparked fears in China over the ability of the US in interdicting vital waterways in a region which China increasingly relies on for its economic development. China has therefore also worked hard to improve relations with states in the Malay Archipelago. The states in the region have responded to the increased Sino-US strategic rivalry by adopting a classic hedging strategy, whereby they hope to reap the benefits of US security assistance and assurances while at the same time engaging with a resurgent China. However, this is a difficult challenge and there are dangers that the deepening US-China strategic rivalry could yet embroil the region in new conflicts.
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