Swaine, Michael D., and Ashley J. Tellis

Summary
This study identifies and analyzes the major factors determining China’s grand strategy past, present, and future to better understand the motivations behind Chinese strategic behavior and to assess how such behavior might evolve in the future, over both the near and long term. The ultimate purpose of such analysis is to more clearly understand whether, and in what manner, China’s grand strategy might pose fundamental challenges to U.S. strategic interests.The study was conducted as part of a larger, multi-year project on Chinese Defense Modernization and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force. Other RAND reports from this project include:Mark Burles, Chinese Policy Toward Russia and the Central Asian Republics, MR-1045-AF, 1999. Zalmay M. Khalilzad, Abram N. Shulsky, Daniel L. Byman, Roger Cliff, David T. Orletsky, David Shlapak, and Ashley J. Tellis, The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications, MR-1082-AF, 1999.Mark Burles and Abram N. Shulsky, Patterns in China’s Use ofForce: Evidence from History and Doctrinal Writings, MR-1160-AF, 2000.This project is conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program ofProject AIR FORCE and was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Stafffor Air and Space Operations, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO),and the Director, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force (AF/XOI). Comments are welcome and may be directed to the authors or to the project leader, Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad.