Ralph, Natalie, and Linda Hancock

Abstract: This paper seeks to identify potential energy security risks and opportunities of new renewable energy (RE) export projects such as transnational solar generated electricity. An energy security framework/index is sought, to facilitate analysis; and which shows promise for application to other electricity/RE export projects. A review of energy security literature identifies Sovacool and Mukherjee’s (2011) [1] comprehensive index as most suitable to apply to a case study project (in its early feasibility stage). The project proposes to export solar-generated electricity from the Pilbara, Western Australia to Java, Indonesia. Additions to the chosen index are proposed, strengthening its scope regarding human security, geopolitical/foreign policy, and materials risks. Analysis identifies key potential risks and opportunities, and gaps in the project’s currently scarce analysis. The project’s primary risks may arise in the regulation and governance dimension. These include Australia’s stalled energy politics; required new business and regulatory frameworks; and the under-developed Australia-Indonesia trade relationship, partly due to historical cultural differences. Questions arise regarding price stability, affordability, access and equity for Indonesians; reliability and resilience risks; and environmental impacts. While potentially positive outcomes may arise for local (Indigenous) Australian communities, more analysis is needed on whether Australian investment in exports should prioritize (or equalize) large-scale electricity grid infrastructure and/or distributed energy systems, when considering impacts on Indonesian communities. Ultimately, the expanded index can inform development of new transnational renewable energy and electricity projects, and improve forward-thinking on risk management. Full text available here.