Pillsbury, Michael

Abstract
During the Cold War, an influential group of American defence planners sought to understand Soviet defence decisions by grasping the Soviet mind, including exploring how the Soviet generals thought about war and their opponents. This was achieved only through intensive intelligence collection and intellectual analysis, including extensive use of open sources. It was a process which, as George Kennan put it in his analysis of Soviet thinking, ‘would require living with contradictions’.
A similar effort to understand the Chinese mind has not been undertaken by modern strategists. The advocates of various China policies have been largely unable to access the materials that would provide them insight into how the Chinese might react, not just because of linguistic barriers and restricted circulation, but because, to forecast Chinese defence decision-making over the long term, psycho-cultural factors may be as important as rational or cognitive considerations. Understanding Chinese military fears and concerns can provide insights into their military planning while enabling American policymakers to assess the most successful strategic choices. Yet understanding Chinese psycho-cultural factors promises to be more difficult than studying the Soviets. Nathan Leites, for one, has suggested that China might be more difficult to understand than the Russian language and culture.
Many observers have noted China’s lack of transparency about the future size, scope and long-range goals of its military-modernisation plans. Looking back, there have been forecasts that either overestimated or underestimated Chinese military progress. Many policy opportunities depend in part on understanding the choices China has already made, as well as future decisions that other nations may be able to influence. Drawing on limited available open-source evidence and a review of Chinese internal writings, 16 psychological factors – military fears or vulnerabilities – can be identified that illustrate why China has designed the forces it has and that reveal those factors likely to influence Chinese military policy in the future.
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