Moon, Joo Hyun

Abstract: Despite the Hanoi Summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, there has been no positive sign that the North Korea nuclear problem is being resolved. To advance the denuclearization negotiations, a new approach to denuclearization must be considered, which needs to meet two objectives simultaneously: to relieve North Korea’s concerns about its regime change and to practically eliminate its nuclear capability to fabricate additional nuclear weapons and refurbish existing nuclear weapons. The new approach should consider infrastructures that would be indispensable in implementing North Korea’s denuclearization processes and stopping any attempt to proliferate North Korea’s nuclear materials and technologies amid denuclearization. Accordingly, this paper proposes a new roadmap whose key concept is to first disable and, then, gradually but completely dismantle the lynchpin nuclear facilities within 10 years. Here, lynchpin facilities are defined as key facilities that are directly related to the production of nuclear materials or other materials used when fabricating and refurbishing the key components of nuclear weapons or which would have a fatal impact on maintaining North Korea’s nuclear weapon program. Additionally, this roadmap addresses corresponding measures for denuclearization activities. This roadmap consists of three sub-periods: the lynchpin disablement period, verification and dismantling period, and manifest threat removal period. This paper also identifies and incorporates into the roadmap the supporting infrastructure and possible corresponding measures to accompany the denuclearization steps. Full text available here.