Mitrova, Tatiana

Abstract
The Global and Russian Energy Outlook up to 2040, prepared by the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, analyses the long-term changes in the main energy markets and thereby identifies the threats to the Russian economy and energy sector.
Research has shown that shifts in the global energy sector, especially in hydrocarbon markets (primarily the development of technologies for shale oil and gas extraction), will result in a slowdown of Russia’s economy by one percentage point each year on average due to a decrease in energy exports comparison with the official projections. Owing to the lack of development of an institutional framework, an outdated tax system, low competition and low investment efficiency, Russia will be the most sensitive to fluctuations in global hydrocarbon markets among all major energy market players within the forecast period.
In recent years, the global energy sector has undergone significant changes: the global crisis has been accompanied by high price volatility for hydrocarbons; there has been a noticeable slowdown in demand and increased competition in the traditional Russian regional energy markets; and most importantly, new technologies have redrawn the international hydrocarbons trade in a direction unfavourable for Russia. To study the ongoing changes, the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS) has developed its own methodology for the long-term forecasting of global energy markets and in cooperation with the Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation has prepared the “Global and Russian Energy Outlook up to 2040” (hereinafter referred to as Outlook 2013) [1].
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