Lee, John S

Abstract
The relative period of peace in East Asia since the Second World War has largely been underwritten by not just growing prosperity, but the prospect that peace and stability will automatically generate opportunities for countries to grow rich and contented – as has occurred in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. In reality, the arrival of this so-called ‘Asian Century’ is no sure thing. There are significant headwinds or obstacles which may prove difficult for many regional developing countries to overcome. These range from the declining effectiveness of an export-dependent growth model, developments in manufacturing technologies that will dilute the region’s existing advantages, and the problems and cost of aging demographics which will be challenging for many countries to manage. This means that in an environment where the lack of economic gains fails to temper deepening strategic competition and rivalry, the first few decades of this century may well be more traumatic and troubling than the last few decades of the previous century.
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