Klinger, Bruce

Abstract
Two decades of negotiations by the United States and South Korea have failed to achieve North Korean denuclearization. Many pundits have long blamed the lack of progress on the U.S. and South Korean policies. But Pyongyang’s firm rejection of President Barack Obama’s proffered open hand of dialogue led to a dramatic reappraisal. Most analysts now assess that North Korea is not only unlikely to ever abandon its nuclear weapons arsenal, but that Pyongyang never intended to do so. The regime was able to obscure its true intentions through a sophisticated, comprehensive negotiating strategy that enabled it to develop its nuclear weapons capability while still retaining sufficient strategic ambiguity to derail international efforts to prevent it. New North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has not shown himself to be any more likely to give up Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal than his predecessors. The collapse of the February 2012 Leap Day Agreement snuffed out any American interest in engaging Pyongyang, at least for some time. But, Obama’s “strategic patience” will be tested by fears that a refusal for any contact with North Korea could cause Pyongyang to commit another provocation. While South Korea and the United States may again test the waters for resuming negotiations, hopes for a diplomatic resolution have dimmed. Therefore, Seoul and Washington must maintain sufficient military resources to defend against the full spectrum of North Korean threats.
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