Keynoush, Banafsheh

Abstract
Power struggles and political fragmentation have been endemic to the Islamic Republic of Iran since its founding in 1979. But although internal division may weaken the state, it is unlikely to break it. The multiple pillars of power in the Iranian republic protect it from sudden collapse. Loyalties can easily shift from one pillar to the next, allowing for the emergence of new political identities. Elections in particular – there have been 28 since the 1979 revolution – are a significant catalyst for such changes.
The presidential election scheduled for June 2013, which will mark the end of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s second and final four-year term, is unlikely to be very different. Already, the Iranian state has started a modest reinvention of itself as it seeks to transform its image. New coalitions between forces previously loyal to Ahmadinejad and his opponents aim to ensure that the next race is responsive to important political challenges, including the eventual succession to the aging Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the impact of the Arab Spring and the tightening of international sanctions in response to Iran’s nuclear programme. The nature of these coalitions is shaped by the functions and constraints of the key institutions within Iran’s fundamentally diffused political system, and is key to grasping what the political landscape might look like after Ahmadinejad’s departure from office.
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