Calder, Kent E

Summary
Energy is the catalyst behind Japan’s involvement in the Caspian region. Japan currently imports 99 percent of its daily oil consumption, and its neighbors in Northeast Asia are becoming increasingly dependent on imported energy as well. Japan’s unease at the rising Asian demand for, and dependence on, oil and gas from the Persian Gulf is compounded by the economic reality that its principal geostrategic ally, the United States, is moving in precisely the opposite direction. This intriguing mix of economic and geopolitical forces is combining Japan’s longstanding energy angst with a rising desire for political influence beyond its immediate region, transforming its emerging relationships in Central Asia.
 
Although Japan was late in initiating overtures to the Caspian states, it is now the largest bilateral donor to each of the major prospective energy producers of the Caspian region. Moreover, powerful interests in Japan clearly have an economic stake in the realization of Caspian energy development quite apart from the nation’s energy needs, and a massive project such as a trans–Asian pipeline network could hardly be achieved without the active commitment of Japanese financial and industrial power. Looking to the future, expanding Japanese–Central Asian interaction over the next decade is likely to substantially outstrip levels of the past and will be profoundly affected by Japan’s relations with Iran. Should trans–Iranian access routes to Central Asia grow politically acceptable in the United States, and should global energy prices remain buoyant, Japanese involvement in the Caspian region could well surge by a quantum magnitude.