Publication Year: 2019
Abstract: The commercial-strategic linkages and state support for PRC port and shipping ventures resemble a twenty-first-century version of the Dutch East India Company. These notionally commercial enterprises operate globally with the full financial and military backing of their home state, and the vessels that connect the ports are “ships of state,” functioning as instruments of Chinese national strategy while they sail as commercial carriers.
Publication Year: 2020
China’s Global Navy—Today’s Challenge for the United States and the U.S. Navy
Abstract: The balance of power in the Indo-Pacific is shifting as China spends its national treasure to build a modern, blue-water navy and exerts its influence around the region, and the world, through economic investment and military power projection. Beijing’s pursuit of the China Dream is pushing America and its allies toward a decade of concern, when the already tenuous situation may experience further destabilization.
Publication Year: 2018
Abstract: China’s extensive island-building projects in the Spratly Islands, the aggressive harassment tactics of its maritime law-enforcement and paramilitary fleets, and its rejection of binding arbitration rulings on both those activities threaten the rules-based international order and pose political, economic, and potentially military threats to U.S. interests in the region.
Abstract: Low-level instability is to be expected with maritime boundary disputes or when power competition occurs at sea; however, sustained escalatory cycles are unlikely because of the characteristics of the maritime strategic environment. Full text available here.
Publication Year: 2019
India’s Persian desire – analysing India’s maritime trade strategy vis-à-vis the Port of Chabahar
Abstract: Since the turn of the century, India has seen itself as the dominant maritime power in South Asia and has aspired to project this power across the Indian Ocean Region. The principle of a “net security provider” has, thus far, been most applicable in South Asia and around its littorals, but it is West Asia that will really test India’s diplomatic and maritime capabilities over the course of the coming years. West Asia has a complex structure of diplomatic and strategic intricacies, that India has to manoeuvre through, in order to achieve its interests. Adding to this, India has had to adopt a careful balancing act juggling its West Asian interests with those that it has elsewhere. The roles of trade, strategy, and ideology have never been as intertwined as they are in the contemporary age, and this region and the challenges it poses is the most complex weave India that is likely to face as it pushes forward into a new age of international relations. This paper addresses the bilateral realities of India and Iran in the context of India’s maritime strategy, and the geostrategies of other regional players such as China and Pakistan. Full text available here.
Abstract: This article examines the major shipbuilding programmes of the PLA Navy (PLAN) with the purpose of assessing the capabilities of the shipyards engaged in their construction. It analyses the reasons underpinning the Chinese Navy’s ability to convert capital into assets in an efficient, time-bound, and cost-effective manner. It also examines the PLAN’s organisation, structure, scale and best practices, with the aim of identifying those tenets that could be adopted by Indian shipyards to boost efficiency. The piece concludes by making recommendations on these issues. Full text available here.
Abstract: In global politics, the relations between India and China have long been branded by the countries’ customary rivalry. Bitterness and resentment between the two came to the fore with the exile of Dalai Lama to India in 1959. Subsequent to this episode, the Sino-Indian war of 1962 further exacerbated their already strained ties. The continued border dispute, much importantly added fuel to fire. Altercations in their relations, thus are yet not extinguished. In the twenty-first century, when these Asian giants are putting forward their soft power together with military muscle through economic persuasion, the waters of the Indian Ocean are sponsoring economic and geo-strategic conflicts between the two. “India’s participation in the new alliance formed in the maritime domain whereas could cause increasing insecurities to Beijing, Beijing’s unregulated assertiveness through monetary aids along with modernized naval tactics is also viewed to have escalated India’s security concerns”. The global powers when examine such bilateral equation with probabilities of drawing complexities, cooperation between the two, in the form of an unprecedented “maritime dialogue”, demonstrate their unabated commitment to ensure maritime security while pursuing their geo-strategic ambitions in the region. Developments of this kind can help promote regional peace as well. Full text available here.
Abstract: India–Japan security cooperation is a critical component in the evolving security mechanism of the Indo-Pacific region. Both states are secondary states in the international system that opposes one country’s emergence as a regional hegemon. China’s rise and her ambition to dominate the Indo-Pacific would affect the security interests of India and Japan. The U.S., the current preponderant power in the region, seems unable to contain China by itself. So it is looking for strategic partnerships with regional countries who are militarily capable of challenging China, and persuading them to balance China. In this regard, the two powerful states in China’s own backyard – Japan in the western Pacific and India in the Indian Ocean – have come together to counter the Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific. In this effort, they have gradually built up naval cooperation sans a formal military alliance. They follow soft balancing strategies over hard balancing ones because neither wants to antagonise China. Similarly both countries seek to expand their presence through mutual cooperation beyond South-east Asia. This article explains the nature and context of soft power balancing strategies and the manner in which the India–Japan maritime security cooperation has evolved over the last two decades. Full text available here.
Abstract: Sovereignty in the maritime domain is governed by the international laws and conventions, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Maritime sovereignty is deeply contested and the view on it is diverse. While the idea of continental sovereignty got cemented over time, the concept of maritime territorial sovereignty remained fragile until the conclusion of UNCLOS negotiations in 1982. Although China was a part of the negotiating process and has ratified the Convention, its actions in the South China Sea (SCS) have frequently contravened with the UNCLOS. This paper argues, by employing the principles of sovereignty theory, that even though China has discarded the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s (PCA) ruling in the case of The Republic of the Philippines vs The People’s Republic of China, the ruling has set up a clear precedent, which shall be a cornerstone for future references on sovereignty issues in the maritime domain. Full text available here.
Abstract: India’s maritime philosophy has been clearly outlined in both literature, and practice. From a defensive realist perspective, India’s approach to the high seas has brought home various advantages and elevated the country to the status of a major naval power in its region. Despite this prowess, in view of the globalised times and dynamically changing geopolitical scenarios unfolding to its East, India’s interpretation, methods of evaluation, and implementation of its policies, all need to evolve. This paper sheds light on the growing strategic importance-of the South East Asian Regional Complex, as also on the developmental vacuum in this Regional Complex, with specific focus upon Indonesia. The authors aim to address two fundamental questions —“How should India’s relations with Indonesia evolve?”, and, “In what manner should it evolve?”. Indonesia’s role in India’s maritime objectives is a central one and the evolving variables in India’s defensive realist approach places this South East Asian country right at the core of New Delhi’s interests. Full text available here.
Abstract: India and the US have crossed the proverbial Rubicon in their bilateral ties, with maritime cooperation being the mainstay. The US-India navy-to-navy cooperation has emerged as the “best performing area of bilateral relationship”. The maritime domain including the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific area has emerged as the domain for the identification of commonly perceptible threats and goals in the larger Asian maritime expanse. A series of developments, agreements and understandings has gradually been cementing the rubric of US-India maritime cooperation. This paper proposes to justify the hypothesis that maritime cooperation between the US and India is one of the primary mainstays of their bilateral cooperation, and that the proposition will only get stronger going forward. By analysing various steps in maritime cooperation between the two countries, the paper seeks to highlight the rationales for such cooperation; growing Chinese presence in the region, non-traditional threats, HA/DR cooperation, domain awareness, reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, regional stability, and balance of power. Full text available here.
Abstract: Maritime trade is a key contributor to economy in many countries particularly those that are bordering on oceans. Sri Lanka is geographically located in proximity to the main East-West sea route creating multiple logistics advantages to the adjunct countries. This paper considers the maritime trade dependence between Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka that focuses on potential implications and a futuristic view. The paper primarily provides an appraisal of maritime trade about Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. Thereafter, it identifies the historical connections between these countries and discusses the related developments and implications in the maritime industry. It consists of a review and comparison of shipping performance of the countries and an appraisal of Logistics Performance. In addition, it provides an indication of the global perception about other key factors pertaining to logistics and transport. Port project developments, One Belt One Road Initiative, maritime security, risk of Cyber-attacks, a rule based maritime order, trade and investment, transport, energy, and tourism are other factors that are highlighted in this paper. Full text available here.
Abstract: India, China and Japan, the economic big three in Asia, is heavily dependent on maritime trade in terms of importation of energy and other natural resources in addition to import/export of manufactured products. Major economic, political and security impact has been resulted from such a dependence, as the sea-lines of communication for maritime trade across the Indian Ocean and West Pacific is vulnerable to heavy conventional/unconventional threat. Policy measures have been taken in order to mitigate the vulnerabilities. Accelerated development of maritime powers, bilateralism/multilateralism, enhanced engagement with regional players and diversification policies are among such effort. The unconventional challenges are on the decline, partly thanks to effective counter-measures, while the conventional challenges is on the rise, also partly due to the mis-match of policies from major stakeholders. The Rise of Indo-Pacific Concept and the Emerging Maritime Regionalism can be a double-edge sword. Clarification of strategic intention and effective policy dialogue is needed for a more harmonious maritime engagement among the three. Strategic vision and smart policies are needed to ensure a cooperation for the benefit of all stakeholder inclusive of the three countries in particular. Full text available here.
Abstract: At a time when there are instances of lack of participation in binding dispute resolution mechanisms under the UNCLOS, the Bay of Bengal Arbitrations provide a ray of hope and adherence to the rule of law. The three Bay of Bengal States: Bangladesh, India and Myanmar settled their long standing disputed claims over the maritime zones in the Bay of Bengal in a peaceful manner. These cases represent that States relatively stronger on the political level as compared to others are willing to compromise their positions and adhere to the outcome of dispute resolution proceedings under the UNCLOS. These cases involved sensitive issues such as the determination of the land boundary terminus, based upon the reports and other proceedings relating to the partition of India. There were other controversial claims over certain islands, which too were presented for adjudication and the decision was thereafter complied with all the parties to the dispute. These cases thus constitute a prime example of the importance of adherence to a rule based system for maritime claims. Full text available here.
Abstract: This paper reviews the existing multilateral structures in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) – notably the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) – in the context of various geopolitical facets, ranging from geoeconomics to regional security and good order. It examines and recommends options to bolster economic multilateralism in the IOR though a comprehensive two-fold approach. The first one seeks to enhance intraregional trade, maritime–economic connectivity, and technology sharing, delving into issues relating to a region-wide free trade agreement (FTA), the amalgamation of economic corridors within IORA, and the “Make in India” initiative. The second is founded upon the indispensability of a secure and conducive maritime environment for economic development, and addresses maritime safety and security (MSS), as also “good order” in the IOR. It suggests measures to bolster the IORA’s nascent MSS architecture with a web of bilateral, trilateral and subregional mechanisms, emphasising the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) as the key functional enabler of IORA’s MSS agenda. It also examines the imminent challenges relating to freedom of navigation (FoN), and undertakes an appraisal of Sri Lanka’s draft Code of Conduct (CoC) for the Indian Ocean. The arguments presented hinge upon the suggestion that the collective approach of the IOR countries should ideally be in consonance with India’s prime-ministerial enunciation of the concept of SAGAR – security and growth for all in the region. If each Indian Ocean country’s economy is a “boat”, the Indian “boat” cannot rise unless all “boats” rise with a rising economic tide. Full text available here.
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