Introduction
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has undertaken a policy of Pyongjin (“parallel track”) in seeking to simultaneously develop its nuclear weapons capacity and its economy. However, due to deteriorating relations between Beijing and Pyongyang, North Korean leadership is reluctant to emulate the Chinese economic model and is averse to accepting aid under South Korea’s policy of Trustpolitik. Recent developments suggest that North Korea is looking for new economic models derived from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries, particularly Vietnam and Singapore. In so doing, it is apparent that North Korea is testing the waters for re-integration into the international community.
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Country or Region: Vietnam
Chow, Peter C.Y
Abstract
As President Tsai Ing-wen assumes power, she faces a citizenry hoping that she can revitalize Taiwan’s economy, including: promoting high growth, low unemployment, equitable distribution of income, affordable housing for working people, food safety and quality of life in a democratic country. They also expect that she will not be deterred from engaging in the international arena. However, President Tsai faces several challenges amid slowing growth in much of the world, and Taiwan’s partial exclusion from the international economic order will affect prospects for her success in meeting expectations for further economic progress.
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Jenkinson, Simon
Abstract
Vietnam has come to represent any situation of unexpected military failure or frustration, having an unexpectedly negative or counterproductive effect on the failing or frustrated actor: shades of nemesis and schadenfreude are frequently associated with its invocation by opponents of said actor; it is also invoked by partisans of the actor as a reason not to act. Vietnam—representing the dangers of ill-considered action—has become the reverse of Munich—so frequently invoked to illustrate the dangers of tardy action: together the two are opposite sides of a coin tossed in the air, dropped and snatched at every time a war is in prospect.
The true political lesson of the Vietnam War is far subtler, to do with the dangers of unilateral action, of the signing of blank cheques, of a domestic political debate overrunning the boundaries of electioneering and robbing politicians of their discretion. The military lesson was more straightforward, but, as far as the United States is concerned, the problems have been avoided rather than addressed.
This article will look at the three phases of the war—background, conflict and occupation—in turn, focusing on the political and military similarities to, and differences from, Vietnam where appropriate.
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Cantore, Nicola, Massimiliano Calì, and Dirk Willem te Velde
Abstract
Does a trade-off exist between energy efficiency and economic growth? This question underlies some of the tensions between economic and environmental policies, especially in developing countries that often need to expand their industrial base to grow. This paper contributes to the debate by analyzing the relationship between energy efficiency and economic performance at the micro- (total factor productivity) and macro-level (countries’ economic growth). It uses data on a large sample of manufacturing firms across 29 developing countries to find that lower levels of energy intensity are associated with higher total factor productivity for the majority of these countries. The results are robust to a variety of checks. Suggestive cross-country evidence points towards the same relation measured at the macro-level as well.
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Thayer, C. A
Abstract
Since the normalization of relations in 1991, bilateral relations between Vietnam and China have developed into one of normal or mature asymmetry. This is a relationship in which China seeks acknowledgement of its primacy and Vietnam seeks recognition of its autonomy. Maritime disputes in the South China Sea have emerged as the major irritant in bilateral relations because of salience of conflicting claims to sovereignty. This article presents an analysis of Vietnam’s strategy to maintain its autonomy in relations with China with respect to maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Vietnam pursues a strategy of ‘cooperation and struggle’ with China over maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Vietnam’s leaders have attempted to prevent maritime boundary disputes from spilling over and impacting negatively on Vietnam’s comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership with China. At the same time, Vietnam has attempted to manage its maritime disputes with China through government-to-government negotiations and in times of crisis through party-to-party channels. During the oil rig crisis of May–July 2014, Vietnam defended its autonomy by standing up to Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.
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Odeyemi, Christo
Abstract
This Critical Comment seeks to situate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) within the context of South China Sea (SCS) dispute. Bearing in mind that maritime actions of the main disputants – China, Vietnam, and the Philippines – increasingly “securitise” these long-standing disputes and vice versa, the study examines the concept of a maritime “regime complex.” Whereas efforts have being made to examine UNCLOS and indeed the dispute within the framework of a maritime “regime complex,” the key finding shows that the increased “securitisation” of the disputes makes it difficult to envisage effective engagement of UNCLOS as a resolution mechanism. It will also reveal that China’s firmly established expansionist agenda in the SCS region is indicative of Beijing’s susceptibility to compromise a diplomatic solution to these long-standing disputes. These discoveries are structured around the knowledge that the spatial relation of the SCS critically espouses not only its geo-strategic significance in terms of natural resources endowment, but also the enduring maritime disputes within the region.
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Ciorciari, John D., and Jessica Chen Weiss
Abstract
While the existing literature emphasizes that elites often have incentives to pander to nationalist sentiment, much less attention has been paid to elite efforts to subdue popular nationalism, either to avoid domestic instability or international escalation. This article examines how different governments respond to nationalist protests and the resulting effects on the risk that interstate disputes will escalate to armed conflict. We argue that government responses to nationalist protests tend to vary in patterned ways across regime types. Nationalist protests present particular dangers in weakly institutionalized democracies, where demonstrations often pose serious threats of instability but are difficult or costly for the government to subdue, tempting or forcing leaders to escalate to appease domestic critics. We illustrate the theory with four cases representing a range of regime types: Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and the Philippines.
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Martin, Susan B
Abstract
The role of norms and military utility in the use of weapons is disputed by constructivist and realist scholars. Through an examination of US decision-making regarding anti-plant and irritant agents in the Vietnam War, I advance this debate in three key ways. First, I develop structural realism’s expectations regarding the role of military utility. Second, I demonstrate that social and material factors are at play in our understandings of both ‘norms’ and ‘military utility’, and that both played a role in US decisions. Third, I find that the dominant role – as structural realism expects – was played by military utility.
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Thayer, Carlyle A
Abstract
This article reviews Chinese assertive behaviour towards the Philippines and Vietnam over South China Sea issues in 2011. The article compares and contrasts Chinese diplomatic behaviour in the period before and after the adoption by ASEAN member states and China of Guidelines for the Implementation the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in July. In the first period China aggressively asserted its claims to sovereignty by interfering with commercial fishing and oil exploration activities of vessels operating in the Exclusive Economic Zones of Vietnam and the Philippines. Both states resisted Chinese actions. The Philippines allocated increased funding for defence modernization, lobbied ASEAN states and shored up its alliance with the United States. Vietnam too protested Chinese action and undertook symbolic steps to defend national sovereignty. In the second period all states moved to contain South China Sea tensions from affecting their larger bilateral relations. It remains to be seen, however, if proposed confidence building measures will ameliorate Chinese assertiveness.
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Mochizuki, Mike M., and Deepa M. Ollapally, eds
Summary
This important book analyzes nuclear weapon and energy policies in Asia, a region at risk for high-stakes military competition, conflict, and terrorism. The contributors explore the trajectory of debates over nuclear energy, security, and nonproliferation in key countries—China, India, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and other states in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Arguing against conventional wisdom, the contributors make a convincing case that domestic variables are far more powerful than external factors in shaping nuclear decision making. The book explores what drives debates and how decisions are framed, the interplay between domestic dynamics and geopolitical calculations in the discourse, where the center of gravity of debates lies in each country, and what this means for regional cooperation or competition and U.S. nuclear energy and nonproliferation policy in Asia.
Nguyen, Ha Thanh Nhan, and Peter Enderwick
Abstract
Increasing regional economic integration amongst ASEAN member countries, and the creation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will bring both opportunities and challenges for local firms. This research investigates the perception and understanding of five Vietnamese food processing companies towards the AEC as well as their planned responses towards deeper integration. Case study interviews revealed that respondents had a limited understanding of the AEC, which moderated their strategic responses. Opportunities identified include access to new markets, the possibility of exploiting regionwide resources, and access to regional value chains. Increased competitive pressure, particularly from foreign investors, was the key anticipated challenge. Business responses focused on increasing intra-regional exports, cooperating with potential partner organizations, improving products and processes, and revising marketing strategies. Respondents also believed that the Vietnamese government could do more to support their businesses in the face of deepening economic integration.
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Wishnick, Elizabeth
Abstract
Long accustomed to a seat on the sidelines of East Asian affairs, Russia now finds itself sought after as an energy and military partner, particularly by Vietnam, but increasingly by a wider range of states in Southeast Asia. Russia’s growing relations with Southeast Asian states, especially in energy and defense, and the development of an alternative northern shipping route to the Malacca Straits are changing perceptions of Russia’s potential role in the region, as Southeast Asian states seek to balance a rising China.
Indeed, it is not the Sino-Russian strategic partnership that will make Russia more of a player in East Asia, as Russian policymakers originally thought nearly two decades ago, but rather Russia’s role in counterbalancing Chinese power in the region, via defense and energy ties with Southeast Asian states. Although Russia finds support in China for its global positions, on a regional level Russian leaders have sought to enhance their country’s independence of action through an increasingly varied Southeast Asian diplomacy, including traditional allies like Vietnam, but also unexpected partners such as the Philippines.
This memo addresses Russian relations with China and Southeast Asian states in the context of disputes over boundaries and energy resources in the South China Sea. It examines how Russia balances its regional energy interests with its desire to play a role in Asia-Pacific regional institutions, its strategic partnership with China, and relations with Southeast Asian states. It also assesses China’s reaction to Russian offshore energy relations with Vietnam and outlines the growing role of Southeast Asia in Russia’s increasing effort to counterbalance China and open an alternative shipping route to the Malacca Straits in the north.
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Tuan, Hoang Anh
Abstract
Vietnam launched its first projects in the field of nuclear power at the end of 1990s. Today the annual total power generation in the country has reached 20GW. The governmental programs imply that the nuclear power plants (NPPs) will already provide 15 percent of the nation’s demand for nuclear power by 2015. In order to meet this ambitious goal Vietnam has been intensively developing international cooperation with the nuclear powers that possess vast experience in this field. The list of major Vietnamese partners in the field of nuclear power includes Russia, the United States, France, South Korea, and Japan. Cooperation with Russia is a special priority for Vietnam. In October 2010, an intergovernmental agreement between Russia and Vietnam was signed which implied construction of the NPP Ningh Thuan 1 which includes two electric power units with 1.2MW pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The first power unit is planned to be brought into operation by 2020.
Security Index discussed the development of the Vietnamese nuclear energy industry, its priorities in terms of international cooperation, aims for the future, and plans for further cooperation with Russia with Director General of the Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency Dr. Hoang Anh Tuan.
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Storey, Ian
Abstract
Announced in 2010, Russia’s “Turn to the East” is aimed at reducing the country’s economic dependence on the West and to take advantage of Asia’s growing economies. The policy has been given added impetus due to falling oil prices and Western sanctions which have plunged the Russian economy into crisis.
Since President Vladimir Putin took office in 2000, Russia’s Asia-policy has been China-centric. But Moscow’s fear of being reduced to the status of junior dependent partner, and China’s economic slowdown, have forced the Kremlin to seek new opportunities in Asia, especially in Southeast Asia.
Economically, however, Russia is a minor player in Southeast Asia, and aside from natural resources, energy technology and arm sales, there seems little scope for expansion in Russia-ASEAN trade.
Due to a larger defence budget and the acquisition of new equipment, today Russia’s military presence in Asia is higher than at any time since the end of the Cold War. However, the most prominent aspect of Russia’s defence engagement with Southeast Asia remains arms sales to regional states, especially Vietnam.
Russia’s engagement with ASEAN is superficial. Moscow has not been a proactive participant in ASEAN-led security forums such as the East Asia Summit because of its limited influence and its more substantive interests in other inter-state forums.
Moscow has adopted a low-key approach to the South China Sea dispute as it is not a major stakeholder and because it does not want to offend its two most important partners in Asia, China and Vietnam, which are rival claimants.
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Thuy, Tran Truong, and Le Thuy Trang, eds
Summary
With contributions from some of the most well-known scholars and knowledgeable insiders in the field of South China Sea studies, this book offers an array of views from international relations and legal perspectives that will help enrich the ongoing global discussion on conflict management and resolution in the South China Sea.
