Abstract
The energy security conundrum – how to equitably provide available, affordable, reliable, efficient, and environmentally benign energy services – is a technology and policy challenge, perhaps unlike any other. The recent article on an energy security in the Asia Pacific by Vlado Vivoda is an excellent starting point for how to best capture the unique energy security challenges facing the region. This article builds on Vivoda’s work, but also points out some shortcomings with his analysis.
Country or Region: Thailand
Vivoda, Vlado
Abstract
This paper establishes an ‘energy security assessment instrument’ based on a new and expanded conceptualisation of energy security. The instrument is a systematic interrogative tool for evaluating energy security of individual states or regions. It consists of eleven broad energy security dimensions associated with the current global energy system. These energy security dimensions take into account numerous quantitative and qualitative attributes of each country’s energy security and policy, and include both traditional energy security concerns and many new factors, such as environmental, socio-cultural and technological. Another dimension, largely absent from previous analyses, is the existence of, and the issues addressed in, energy security policy in each country. This instrument serves as an assessment system with which to evaluate energy security in the Asia-Pacific region. The existing studies on energy security in the Asia-Pacific region suffer from serious limitations. No study to date examines regional energy security policies by adopting a more comprehensive energy security definition as a starting point. Most studies also focus on a single country or issue. Even if they examine energy security in major regional economies, they lack critical comparative analysis. The instrument is valuable as it may be utilised to draw a comprehensive map of regional energy security situation, which can also include comparative analysis of energy security characteristics across the Asia-Pacific region. Ultimately, it may be utilised to set up a framework for improved regional energy cooperation with the aim of providing regional leaders with a blueprint for improving regional energy security and policy.
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Tanatvanit, Somporn, Bundit Limmeechokchai, and Supachart Chungpaibulpatana
Abstract
A brief review of energy use patterns in three economic sectors; namely, residential, industrial and transport sectors is provided in this paper. The transport sector is the largest energy-consuming sector in Thailand, followed by the industrial and residential sectors, respectively. In order to reduce both imported energy and environmental emissions, energy conservation programs would be implemented. This paper forecasts the growth in energy demand and corresponding emissions to the year 2020 for those three sectors by using a model based on the end-use approach. The energy savings from the energy conservation strategies, such as energy efficiency improvement and energy demand management, are assessed and also the implications on electricity generation expansion planning are examined. The integrated resource planning (IRP) model is used to find the least-cost electricity generation expansion plans. Energy conservation options, including energy efficiency improvement programs, are introduced in the residential and industrial sectors. Public transportation and engine technology improvements are introduced in the transport sector. The effects of energy conservation options are analyzed using a scenario-based approach. The results of analysis reveal that the improvement of public transportation can reduce future energy requirements and CO2 emissions in 2020 by 635 thousand ton of oil equivalent (toe) and 2024 thousand ton of CO2 equivalent, respectively. If all options are simultaneously implemented, the potential of energy savings and CO2 mitigation in 2020 are estimated to be 1240 thousand toe and 3622 thousand ton of CO2 equivalent, respectively.
Kunchornrat, Janthana and Aumnad Phdungsilp
Abstract
Low-carbon future has in recent years recurred as a strategic element in energy and climate planning. The transition towards a low-carbon society requires fundamental changes in both the energy systems and in the ways that society adapts to large transformations. These changes cannot happen by themselves, but require purposeful mechanisms and measures steered by government and other actors in society. Actions are required at all levels of government from international to local. Thailand needs to transform its energy system to effectively address concerns about a range of environmental problems. This paper provides an analysis of Thailand’s carbon governance structure as applied to the energy systems. The study applies a multi-level governance framework to understand the policy environment. It presents the elements of existing energy and climate governance and an examination of modeling exercises of the existing literature. It is concluded that multi-level governance enables integration of divergent perspectives and helps steer the course of responsible development. The paper also provides some recommendations on issues related to the governance challenges.
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Leesombatpiboon, P and Joutz, FL
Abstract
This paper examines the short-run and long-run determinants of final oil consumption in seven major economic sectors in Thailand. Two different approaches are compared. The first approach uses dynamic panel data estimation techniques taking into account oil consumption of the whole economy in an aggregate manner. The second approach employs the ADL equilibrium correction framework to model oil demand in each economic sector separately. The dynamic panel data approach estimates appear consistent with economic theory. The coefficients have the correct signs and the magnitudes of long-run responses are larger than the short-run responses. The single sector model approach yields similar but richer results. Relaxing the identical slope assumption reveals interesting sector specific characteristics.
Leesombatpiboon, Poonpat
Summary
Oil crises occur in two forms: high oil price shocks and or oil supply disruptions. High oil prices may not coincide with oil shortages but oil shortages will rapidly lead to higher oil prices. As oil crises usually create both economic and concerns on oil supply security are extensively discussed among oil-importing nations. Thailand has experienced a remarkable record of economic growth during the past three decades. The level of oil consumption has risen considerably to propel economic growth by more than five-fold since 1976, which leads to a growing dependence on oil imports from the Middle East where the geopolitical situation has been unsettled. The fear of oil disruptions has escalated. Consequently, the Thai government has considered establishing a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to provide the government with an effective policy option for managing an oil crisis. However, the question remains as to how much of today s resources should be sacrificed in order to ensure a smooth path in the future.
Mulugetta, Yacob, Nathinee Mantajit, and Tim Jackson
Abstract
Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002–2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand’s dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country’s power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine ‘viability’, the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector.
Shrestha, Ram M., Sunil Malla, Migara H. Liyanage
Abstract
Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand.
Watcharejyothin, Mayurachat and Ram M. Shrestha
Abstract
This paper analyzed the effects of hydropower development in Laos and power trade between Laos and Thailand on economy wide, energy resource mix, power generation capacity mix, energy system cost, environment, as well as, energy security. A MARKAL-based model for an integrated energy system of Laos and Thailand was developed to assess the effects of energy resource development and trade to meet the national energy demands of the two countries. Two national MARKAL-based energy system models of Laos and Thailand were formulated for the study. The results show that 80% exploitation of water resource in Laos would induce power trade between the countries. The integrated energy system cost is found to decrease marginally but it would mitigate the CO2 emission by 2% when compared with the base case. Thailand is expected to gain benefit from the increased level of power imported from Laos in terms of the lower energy system cost, better environmental quality and, greater diversification of energy sources. As compared to the base case, Laos would become the net energy exporter, earn significant export revenue, and improve the increase in revenue of energy export per increase in total energy system cost from the maximum exploitation of hydropower resource.
David von Hippel, Peter Hayes, Jungmin Kang, Tadahiro Katsuta
Abstract
Economic growth in East Asia has rapidly increased regional energy, and especially, electricity needs. Many of the countries of East Asia have sought or are seeking to diversify their energy sources and bolster their energy supply and/or environmental security by developing nuclear power. Rapid development of nuclear power in East Asia brings with it concerns regarding nuclear weapons proliferation associated with uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel management. This article summarizes the development and analysis of four different scenarios of nuclear fuel cycle management in East Asia, including a scenario where each major nuclear power user develops uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel individually, scenarios featuring cooperation in the full fuel cycle, and a scenario where reprocessing is avoided in favor of dry cask storage of spent fuel. The material inputs and outputs and costs of key fuel cycle elements under each scenario are summarized.
Cabalu, Helen
Abstract
Natural gas has become an increasingly valuable resource and a global commodity. The demand for it has significantly increased. Japan, Korea and Taiwan heavily rely on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for their gas supplies from Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Australia and the Middle East. On the other hand, countries like Thailand and Singapore import gas via trans-border pipelines. Gas supply interruptions, volatile gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks, and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances have renewed interest on gas security in Asia. This paper examines the relative vulnerability to natural gas supply disruptions of seven gas-importing countries in Asia for year 2008. Based on four indicators of security of gas supply, a composite gas supply security index is estimated as an overall indication of gas vulnerability for our sample countries. The results demonstrate that there are differences in the values of the overall indicator of gas vulnerability among countries and the assessment is useful in developing an effective strategy of natural gas supply security in countries in the Asian region.
Martchamadol, Jutamanee and S. Kumar
Abstract
This study presents an assessment of the energy security of Thailand using nineteen indicators. The assessment period is for a 45 year period (1986-2030), and used published data for 1986-2009, and applying three energy scenarios for the period 2010-2030. The three scenarios considered were high economic growth and least cost option (HEG&LC), low carbon society (LCS), and current policy (CP). The results show that LCS scenario shows higher energy security or lower vulnerability to energy risk on a long term. However, to achieve this, the additional target of energy saving by 2030 should be changed from 25% reduction of energy intensity of final energy consumption to 60% energy intensity reduction of primary energy compared to 2009 level. One benefit would be an increase in the non-carbon incentive fuel portfolio by 33% of total primary energy supply in 2030. A reduction in crude oil and natural gas domestic production will be offset by an increase in their imports. CO emission reduction of 123 MtCO and improvements in domestic energy reserves will also result.
Leesombatpiboon, Poonpat
Abstract
This dissertation studies Thailand’s energy security from three related perspectives, the role of oil on the Thai macroeconomy, the sectoral demand for oil in Thailand, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) policy for the Thai economy.The first part of my dissertation estimates an error correction model of aggregate production function for Thailand. Thai economic growth is modeled as a function of labor, capital, and oil consumption. Unlike previous studies that focus on testing the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, I focus on measuring the elasticity of economic growth with respect to oil consumption and oil prices. I find a cointegration relationship between GDP, capital, labor, and oil consumption. The results suggest that there exists a constant-return-to-scale characteristic in Thailand’s aggregate production function with the contribution of labor, oil, and capital to output around 68, 19, and 13 percent respectively. The long-run and short-run contribution of oil consumption to the economy appears to be fairly close, suggesting that oil has a critical role in the Thai economy. In the short run, oil shortages have a much more severe impact on Thai economy than the effects of an oil price shock. For example, a 10 percent shortfall in oil consumption might cause economic growth to shrink by 2 percent within the same year while a sharp10 percent rise in oil prices can lead output growth to a fall by about 0.5 percent. The response of output to increases and decreases in oil prices is found to be asymmetric in the short run.The second part of my dissertation examines the short-run and long-run determinants of final oil consumption in seven major economic sectors in Thailand. Two different approaches are compared. The first approach uses dynamic panel data estimation techniques taking into account oil consumption of the whole economy in an aggregate manner. The second approach employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) error correction framework to model oil demand in each economic sector separately. The results show that the dynamic panel data approach appears to give estimates consistent with the economic theory. The signs on the coefficients are correct and the magnitude of long-run responses is larger than that of the short-run responses. The single sector model approach yields similar but richer results. Since constant slopes are not imposed across sectors the characteristics and dynamics and responses can differ across sectors.The third part of my dissertation develops a simple Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the economic consequences of the SPR for a “small oil-importing economy.” This economy is subject to the risk of oil shocks. Government policy-makers attempt to mitigate the macroeconomic impacts of the shocks by establishing a SPR. The assigned values of the parameters in the model aim to reflect the basic characteristics of the Thai economy. The simulation results show that the impulse responses of key economic variables for different degrees of oil shocks follow the same pattern. When the degree of the shock increases, the magnitude of the stock drawdown increases, which helps lower the negative impact on economic welfare. I examine the welfare effects from alternative sizes of the SPR and the opportunity cost for the economy that result when it has to sacrifice additional resources to maintain and operate the SPR. This lowers the level of resources available for production and consumption in the long run. There exists a trade- off relationship between the sacrificed welfare in the long run and the less volatile welfare in the short run.
Tongsopit, Sopitsuda and Chris Greacen
Abstract
Thailand was one of the first Asian countries with a comprehensive feed-in tariff, or adder, program. The program has been in place for six years and gone through successive phases of adjustment, in particular in response to higher-than predicted response by industry in the form of applications submitted for interconnection. As of December 2011, Thailand has about 8,000 megawatts of renewable energy projects in the pipeline seeking adder and about 1,000 megawatts already connected and selling power to the grid. This paper provides an overview of Thailand’s grid-connected renewable energy support with a focus on the adder measure, which has been the major mechanism that drives the growth in Thailand’s renewable energy capacity. The paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the adder program and recent policy and regulatory changes that have reduced the program’s effectiveness.
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Sovacool, B.K., I. Mukherjee, I.M. Drupady, and A.L. D’Agostino
Abstract
This study provides an index for evaluating national energy security policies and performance among the United States, European Union, Australia, New Zealand, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the ten countries comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Drawn from research interviews, a survey instrument, and a focused workshop, the article first argues that energy security ought to be comprised of five dimensions related to availability, affordability, technology development, sustain-ability, and regulation. The article then breaks these dimensions down into 20 components and correlates them with 20 metrics that constitute a comprehensive energy security index. We find that the top three performers of our index for all data points and times are Japan, Brunei, and the United States and the worst performers Vietnam, India, and Myanmar. Malaysia, Australia, and Brunei saw their energy security improve the most from 1990 to 2010 whereas Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar saw it decline the most. The article concludes by calling for more research on various aspects of our index and its results.
