Summary
Changing national identities have transformed the China-Taiwan and Korean conflicts. Democratization in Taiwan and South Korea, and liberalization in China, have forced leaders to compete for popular legitimacy by appealing to national identities. Along with the collapse of the Soviet Union, these contested national identities have been the main factors driving change in the conflicts–pushing China and Taiwan inexorably apart and toward a showdown, while helping to prop up what appeared to be a mortally wounded North Korea. This explains why one U.S. ally, Taiwan, becomes more hawkish, while the other, South Korea, becomes more dovish. U.S. foreign policy is struggling to adjust.
Country or Region: Taiwan
Moltz, James Clay
Abstract
Northeast Asia is a nuclear tinderbox that could easily be set off, given rising regional tensions, widespread nuclear power capabilities, and the absence of strong regional security institutions. Given this context, states need to identify and seek to prevent “trigger events”—circumstances that could stimulate proliferation cascades. While it is important to continue the current emphasis on strengthening supply-side constraints (such as the Proliferation Security Initiative), new efforts to address the demand side are sorely needed. These efforts should include shoring up currently weakened global nonproliferation norms, facilitating direct talks among states on issues of military concern, and renewing efforts to address underlying sources of regional conflict (historical problems, territorial disputes, and the still unresolved Korean War). While difficult, these new approaches offer the best chance of keeping two and a half nuclear states in Northeast Asia from becoming six.
Cho, Il Hyun
Abstract
During his tenure, President George W. Bush touted the East Asian democratic experience as a positive model for democratization in the Middle East. Contrary to the premise of democracy leading to regional stability, however, East Asian democracies in the past decade have often become a source of regional instability. Based on a comparative analysis of political developments in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, this paper explores the foreign policy behavior of East Asian democracies and assesses the overall impact on regional security dynamics. Specifically, I argue that incomplete democratic consolidation, combined with the political salience of national identity, sparked a process of acute intergroup competition among domestic political actors. As a result, the foreign policy orientation of the three East Asian democracies became belligerent, thereby unnecessarily increasing regional tensions.
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O’Hanlon, Michael
Abstract
Growing tensions between Taipei and Beijing have led many to call for a more formal U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan. Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution contends that even without direct U.S. military involvement, China cannot conquer Taiwan, a situation that is likely to hold for at least the next decade. Accordingly, O’Hanlon counsels U.S. policymakers against formally committing the United States to the defense of Taiwan, arguing that officials in Taipei could misread such a step as U.S. encouragement of Taiwan’s drive for independence—the result of which could be a major confrontation between the United States and China.
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Ross, Robert S
Abstract
Robert Ross of Boston College considers the prospects for a U.S.-China war over Taiwan. Ross praises the first Bush administration and the Clinton administration for maintaining the U.S. commitment to protect Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion while furthering U.S. engagement with the mainland. In contrast, he criticizes the current Bush administration’s policy of constructing “a U.S.-Taiwan defense relationship focused on wartime cooperation.” The administration’s decision to increase U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and to consider selling missile defense technologies to Taiwan unnecessarily challenges Chinese security interests in the Taiwan Strait and increases the likelihood of conflict. Instead, Ross asserts that as long as Taiwan does not declare independence from China, the United States can be confident that it can continue to deter the Chinese use of force against Taiwan for decades to come.
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Glosny, Michael A
Abstract
Recent remarks by Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian advocating increased sovereignty for Taiwan underscore concern that further efforts to declare formal independence from China could ultimately lead to a Chinese decision to use force. Michael Glosny of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology presents several scenarios to assess the likelihood of a successful Chinese submarine blockade against Taiwan. Glosny argues that although a submarine blockade would likely impose significant costs on Taiwan, “the threat of a successful blockade is overstated.”
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Pempel, T. J
Summary
An overarching ambiguity characterizes East Asia today. The region has at least a century-long history of internal divisiveness, war, and conflict, and it remains the site of several nettlesome territorial disputes. However, a mixture of complex and often competing agents and processes has been knitting together various segments of East Asia. In Remapping East Asia, T. J. Pempel suggests that the region is ripe for cooperation rather than rivalry and that recent “region-building” developments in East Asia have had a substantial cumulative effect on the broader canvas of international politics. This collection is about the people, processes, and institutions behind that region-building. In it, experts on the area take a broad approach to the dynamics and implications of regionalism. Instead of limiting their focus to security matters, they extend their discussions to topics as diverse as the mercurial nature of Japan’s leadership role in the region, Southeast Asian business networks, the war on terrorism in Asia, and the political economy of environmental regionalism. Throughout, they show how nation-states, corporations, and problem-specific coalitions have furthered regional cohesion not only by establishing formal institutions, but also by operating informally, semiformally, or even secretly.
Kim, Samuel S ed
Summary
Is Northeast Asia primed for peace or ripe for great-power rivalry? In this turbulent region, all the world-order challenges of arms control and disarmament, global North-South tensions, human rights and humanitarian intervention, environmental protection and eco-development, and democratization and humane governance are concentrated. More than any other part of the world, the divided Korean peninsula is the strategic crossroad where the four major regional/global powers—the United States, Russia, China, and Japan—uneasily interact. This authoritative work explores the complex and evolving interplay of national, regional, and global forces influencing Northeast Asia’s security, economy, and identity. Written by a team of leading scholars, the book presents a variety of theoretical perspectives and case studies to offer a comprehensive analysis of the pressures that shape the policy choices of China, Russia, Japan, the United States, North and South Korea, and Taiwan. The authors’ historically and culturally informed narratives help track and explain the changes and continuities of relationships within the region and with the United States and Russia. Concise and current, this book will be essential reading for all those concerned with the role of a changing Northeast Asia in world politics.
Xu, Yi-Chong ed
Summary
Why is nuclear energy in Asia accepted as part of the solution to power shortages and environmental pollution, whilst still regarded with suspicion in Europe and North America? The majority of new nuclear power stations are being built in Asia, 36 were completed or underway in 2010. Nuclear power is seen as one among many technologies that might assist in dealing with the twin challenges of energy shortage and climate change. The contributors to this book explain why and how five countries in the Asia region (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China and India) have initiated and developed their nuclear energy programs. They demonstrate what challenges these countries face today, what the domestic and international implications of their rapid expansion of nuclear energy capacities are, and what the prospects for future development may be. The case study of Australia as a major uranium supplier is also explored.
Elmmers, Ralf
Summary
Geopolitics is a crucial element in understanding international relations in East Asia, with major and medium powers competing for influence. This book examines geopolitics in East Asia, focusing in particular on its major, contentious maritime territorial disputes. It looks in particular detail at the overlapping claims between Japan, China and Taiwan over the Senkaku/Diao yu Islands in the East China Sea as well as the Paracel Islands claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam and the Spratly Islands involving Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam in the South China Sea. The book offers a comparative study of the East and South China Seas by arguing that their respective circumstances are influenced by similar geopolitical considerations; factors such as territory, natural resources and power competition all impact on disputes and broader regional relations. It is precisely the interplay of these geopolitical forces that can lead to the rapid escalation of a maritime territorial dispute or reversely to a diffusion of tensions. The book considers how such disputes might be managed and resolved peacefully, despite the geopolitical conditions that can make co-operation on these issues difficult to achieve. Ralf Emmers examines the prospect for conflict management and resolution by identifying catalysts which may contribute to improving the climate of relations.
Kastner, Scott
Summary
Why is it that political conflict between countries sometimes undermines commerce between those states, and yet at other times it seems to have little or no effect on cross-border economic flows? The question is an important one, yet, while numerous studies have considered how and to what extent international political conflict affects trade, few consider how and when economic linkages can develop despite hostile political relations. This book addresses that gap, and demonstrates that the impact of international political conflict on commerce will be muted when national leaders are accountable to internationalist economic interests—because such leaders will try to prevent political disputes with other countries from spilling over into economic arenas. The author develops this argument primarily through a detailed case study of a critically important contemporary case: the relationship between Mainland China and Taiwan. He then tests it via two shorter case studies.
Mochizuki, Mike, Akikaku Hashimoto, and Kurayoshi Takara ed
Berger, Thomas
Abstract
The Asian Pacific region is highly unstable, but not for the reasons usually assumed. Contrary to the assertions of Realists, who argue multipolarity makes Asia ‘ripe for rivalry’, overwhelming US strategic preponderance should make the balance of power quite stable. Likewise, while much is made by more liberal International Relations theorists of the relative absence of strong international institutions and democracy in Asia, recent trends seem to point in a more positive direction. The real source of instability lies in the beliefs and values held by regional actors. Contested sovereignty on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan straits makes military conflict seem a real possibility. Latent isolationism in the US and Japan may lead to a mishandling of a crisis were one to emerge. This Constructivist line of analysis suggests that more attention should be paid to these intangible potential sources of conflict and miscalculation.
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Alagappa, Muthiah
Summary
More than a decade has passed since the end of the Cold War, but Asia still faces serious security challenges. These include the current security environment in the Korean peninsula, across the Taiwan Strait, and over Kashmir, the danger of nuclear and missile proliferation, and the concern with the rising power of China and with American dominance. Indeed, some experts see Asia as a dangerous and unstable place. Alagappa disagrees, maintaining that Asia is a far more stable, predictable, and prosperous region than it was in the postindependence period. This volume also takes account of the changed security environment in Asia since September 11, 2001.
Unlike many areas-studies approaches, Alagappa’s work makes a strong case for taking regional politics and security dynamics seriously from both theoretical and empirical approaches. The first part of this volume develops an analytical framework for the study of order; the salience of the different pathways to order is examined in the second part; the third investigates the management of specific security issues; and the final part discusses the nature of security order in Asia.
Furukawa, Katsuhisa, Michael J. Green, James J. Wirtz, Yuri Fedorov, Avner Cohen, Peter R. Lavoy, Kang Choi, Tan See Seng, and Rod Lyon
Summary
The Long Shadow is the first comprehensive, systematic examination of the roles and implications of nuclear weapons in the dramatically different post–Cold War security environment. Leading experts investigate the roles and salience of nuclear weapons in the national security strategies of twelve countries and the ASEAN states, and their implications for security and stability in a broadly defined Asian security region that includes the Middle East. The study also investigates the prospects for nuclear terrorism in Asia.
A chief conclusion of the study is that nuclear weapons influence national security strategies in fundamental ways and that deterrence continues to be the dominant role and strategy for the employment of nuclear weapons. Offensive and defensive strategies may increase in salience but will not surpass the deterrence function. Another major conclusion is that although there could be destabilizing situations, on balance, nuclear weapons have reinforced security and stability in the Asian security region by assuaging national security concerns, strengthening deterrence and the status quo, and preventing the outbreak and escalation of major hostilities.
As nuclear weapons will persist and cast a long shadow on security in Asia and the world, it is important to reexamine and redefine “old” ideas, concepts, and strategies as well as develop “new” ones relevant to the contemporary era. In line with this, the global nuclear order should be constructed anew based on present realities.
