Abstract
How likely is a North Korean invasion of South Korea? And what would be its chances of success? Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution begins with a claim that there is “a strong body of evidence and a wide array of analytical methods [that] argue…that the Defense Department’s official image of war does not apply to the Korean peninsula.” Specifically, O’Hanlon questions the findings of the Pentagon’s 1993 Bottom-Up Review and its 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review, which suggest that North Korea could possibly achieve an initial breakthrough—including the capture of Seoul and perhaps much of the peninsula—before finally being defeated by U.S. and South Korean forces. O’Hanlon counters this assessment with an emphatic statement that “joint U.S.–[South Korean] forces are, with very high confidence, capable of stopping a [North Korean] attack cold.”
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Country or Region: South Korea
Kim, Samuel S.
Summary
North Korea’s foreign relations are a blend of contradiction and complexity. They start from the incongruity between Pyongyang’s highly touted policy of juche, or self-reliance, and North Korea’s extended and heavy reliance on foreign aid and assistance over the 6 decades of its existence. This aid—both military and economic—in the first 4 decades came from China, the Soviet Union, and communist bloc states; in the past 2 decades, this aid has come from countries including China, South Korea, and the United States.
In this monograph, Dr. Samuel Kim examines North Korea’s foreign relations with China, Russia, Japan, the United States, and South Korea during the post-Cold War era. He argues that central to understanding North Korea’s international behavior in the 21st century is the extent to which the policies of the United States have shaped that behavior. Although some readers may not agree with all of Dr. Kim’s interpretations and assessments, they nevertheless will find his analysis simulating and extremely informative.
This publication is the fifth in a series titled “Demystifying North Korea,” the products of a project directed by Dr. Andrew Scobell. The first monograph, North Korea’s Strategic Intentions, written Dr. Scobell, was published in July 2005. The second monograph, Kim Jong Il and North Korea: The Leader and the System, also written by Dr. Scobell, appeared in March 2006. The third monograph, North Korean Civil-Military Trends: Military-First Politics to a Point, written by Mr. Ken Gause, appeared in October 2006. The fourth monograph, North Korea’s Military Conventional and Unconventional Military Capabilities and Intentions (forthcoming March 2007), was written by Captain John Sanford (USN) and Dr. Scobell. Future monographs will examine North Korea’s economy and assess future scenarios. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to make this monograph publicly available.
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Kim, Samuel S
Summary
This book explores Korea’s place in terms of multiple levels and domains of interaction pertaining to foreign-policy behaviors and relations with the four regional/global powers (China, Russia, Japan, and the United States). The synergy of global transformations has now brought to an end Korea’s proverbial identity and role as the helpless shrimp among whales, and both North Korea and South Korea have taken on new roles in the process of redefining and projecting their national identities. Synthetic national identity theory offers a useful perspective on change and continuity in Korea’s turbulent relationships with the great powers over the years. Following a review of Korean diplomatic history and competing theoretical approaches, along with a synthetic national-identity theory as an alternative approach, one chapter each is devoted to how Korea relates to the four powers in turn, and the book concludes with a consideration of inter-Korean relations and potential reunification.
Pempel, T. J
Summary
An overarching ambiguity characterizes East Asia today. The region has at least a century-long history of internal divisiveness, war, and conflict, and it remains the site of several nettlesome territorial disputes. However, a mixture of complex and often competing agents and processes has been knitting together various segments of East Asia. In Remapping East Asia, T. J. Pempel suggests that the region is ripe for cooperation rather than rivalry and that recent “region-building” developments in East Asia have had a substantial cumulative effect on the broader canvas of international politics. This collection is about the people, processes, and institutions behind that region-building. In it, experts on the area take a broad approach to the dynamics and implications of regionalism. Instead of limiting their focus to security matters, they extend their discussions to topics as diverse as the mercurial nature of Japan’s leadership role in the region, Southeast Asian business networks, the war on terrorism in Asia, and the political economy of environmental regionalism. Throughout, they show how nation-states, corporations, and problem-specific coalitions have furthered regional cohesion not only by establishing formal institutions, but also by operating informally, semiformally, or even secretly.
Pempel, T. J., and Chung Min Lee ed
Summary
Defining and conceptualizing Northeast Asia’s security complex poses unique quandaries. The security architecture in Northeast Asia to date has been predominately U.S.-dominated bilateral alliances, weak institutional structures and the current Six Party Talks dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue. There has been a distinct lack of desire among regional countries as well as the U.S. to follow in the footsteps of Europe with its robust set of multilateral institutions. However, since the late 1990s, there has been burgeoning interest among regional states towards forming new multilateral institutions as well as reforming and revitalizing existing mechanisms. Much of this effort has been in the economic and political arenas, with the creation of bodies such as the East Asian Summit, but there have also been important initiatives in the security sphere.
This book offers detailed examinations about how this potentially tense region of the world is redefining certain longstanding national interests, and shows how this shift is the result of changing power relations, the desire to protect hard-won economic gains, as well as growing trust in new processes designed to foster regional cooperation over regional conflict.
Presenting new and timely research on topics that are vital to the security future of one of the world’s most important geographical regions, this book will be of great value to students and scholars of Asian politics, regionalism, international politics and security studies.
Kim, Samuel S ed
Summary
Is Northeast Asia primed for peace or ripe for great-power rivalry? In this turbulent region, all the world-order challenges of arms control and disarmament, global North-South tensions, human rights and humanitarian intervention, environmental protection and eco-development, and democratization and humane governance are concentrated. More than any other part of the world, the divided Korean peninsula is the strategic crossroad where the four major regional/global powers—the United States, Russia, China, and Japan—uneasily interact. This authoritative work explores the complex and evolving interplay of national, regional, and global forces influencing Northeast Asia’s security, economy, and identity. Written by a team of leading scholars, the book presents a variety of theoretical perspectives and case studies to offer a comprehensive analysis of the pressures that shape the policy choices of China, Russia, Japan, the United States, North and South Korea, and Taiwan. The authors’ historically and culturally informed narratives help track and explain the changes and continuities of relationships within the region and with the United States and Russia. Concise and current, this book will be essential reading for all those concerned with the role of a changing Northeast Asia in world politics.
Xu, Yi-Chong ed
Summary
Why is nuclear energy in Asia accepted as part of the solution to power shortages and environmental pollution, whilst still regarded with suspicion in Europe and North America? The majority of new nuclear power stations are being built in Asia, 36 were completed or underway in 2010. Nuclear power is seen as one among many technologies that might assist in dealing with the twin challenges of energy shortage and climate change. The contributors to this book explain why and how five countries in the Asia region (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China and India) have initiated and developed their nuclear energy programs. They demonstrate what challenges these countries face today, what the domestic and international implications of their rapid expansion of nuclear energy capacities are, and what the prospects for future development may be. The case study of Australia as a major uranium supplier is also explored.
Suh, Jae-Jung
Summary
This book looks at U.S.-Korea relations and argues that the durability of military alliances depends upon a combination of power distribution, material assets, and identities. The author asserts that military alliances, beyond being mere tools of power balancing, are also engaged in material, representational, and institutional practices that constitute the identity of allies and adversaries.
Suh, J. J., Peter J. Katzenstein, and Allen Carlson ed
Summary
Is East Asia heading toward war? Throughout the 1990s, conventional wisdom among U.S. scholars of international relations held that institutionalized cooperation in Europe fosters peace, while its absence from East Asia portends conflict. Developments in Europe and Asia in the 1990s contradict the conventional wisdom without discrediting it. Explanations that derive from only one paradigm or research program have shortcomings beyond their inability to recognize important empirical anomalies. International relations research is better served by combining explanatory approaches from different research traditions.
This book makes a case for a new theoretical approach (called “analytical eclecticism” by the authors) to the study of Asian security. It informs the analysis in subsequent chapters of central topics in East Asian security, with specific reference to China, Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia. The authors conclude that the prospects for peace in East Asia look less dire than conventional—in many cases Eurocentric—theories of international relations suggest. At the same time, they point to a number of potentially destabilizing political developments.
Schoenbaum, Thomas J
Summary
This book takes an in-depth look at Japan’s long-festering territorial and maritime disputes with its three neighbors – China, South Korea and the Russian Federation. Japan has established friendly relations with all three former adversaries since the end of World War II, but these sovereignty issues remain. All three disagreements have recently flared into potentially violent incidents that could erupt again at any time. The book explores each situation and proposes concrete compromise solutions to each of the outstanding disputes.
The key recommendation the book sets forth is that the disputes in question be resolved through the conclusion of separate negotiated agreements between Japan and each of its neighbors, whereby separate Zones of Cooperation and Environmental Protection are established in northeast Asia. These three agreements would be international treaties with the purpose of establishing ongoing permanent cooperation in the three disputed areas. The book concludes with a discussion of the need for broader multilateral institutions of cooperation.
International relations specialists, government officials, international lawyers and scholars of Asian politics will find great value in the knowledgeable discussions of these complex issues.
Kim, Byung K., Gi-Wook Shin, and David Straub ed
Summary
Why should Americans worry about South Korean security? The answer is clear: North Korea, and beyond. Most international attention to the North Korea problem has focused on U.S. policy, but South Korea’s longterm role may in fact be more important. South Korea’s security is vital to peace and stability, not only in Northeast Asia but also the wider world.
Written by eminent scholars, practitioners, and policymakers with extensive on-the-ground experience, Beyond North Korea assesses the varied contexts —regional and global, traditional and nontraditional —that underpin South Korea’s varied security challenges. What are South Korea’s military requirements? How do relations with its neighbors enhance or undermine its position? What economic, environmental, and demographic factors come into play? This book reveals that South Korea’s national security rests as much on sound domestic policy choices as on successful interstate relations.
Berger, Thomas
Abstract
The Asian Pacific region is highly unstable, but not for the reasons usually assumed. Contrary to the assertions of Realists, who argue multipolarity makes Asia ‘ripe for rivalry’, overwhelming US strategic preponderance should make the balance of power quite stable. Likewise, while much is made by more liberal International Relations theorists of the relative absence of strong international institutions and democracy in Asia, recent trends seem to point in a more positive direction. The real source of instability lies in the beliefs and values held by regional actors. Contested sovereignty on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan straits makes military conflict seem a real possibility. Latent isolationism in the US and Japan may lead to a mishandling of a crisis were one to emerge. This Constructivist line of analysis suggests that more attention should be paid to these intangible potential sources of conflict and miscalculation.
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Alagappa, Muthiah
Summary
More than a decade has passed since the end of the Cold War, but Asia still faces serious security challenges. These include the current security environment in the Korean peninsula, across the Taiwan Strait, and over Kashmir, the danger of nuclear and missile proliferation, and the concern with the rising power of China and with American dominance. Indeed, some experts see Asia as a dangerous and unstable place. Alagappa disagrees, maintaining that Asia is a far more stable, predictable, and prosperous region than it was in the postindependence period. This volume also takes account of the changed security environment in Asia since September 11, 2001.
Unlike many areas-studies approaches, Alagappa’s work makes a strong case for taking regional politics and security dynamics seriously from both theoretical and empirical approaches. The first part of this volume develops an analytical framework for the study of order; the salience of the different pathways to order is examined in the second part; the third investigates the management of specific security issues; and the final part discusses the nature of security order in Asia.
Shin, Gi-Wook. Park, Soon-Won. and Yang, Daqing
Summary
The Northeast Asian region has witnessed phenomenal economic growth and the spread of democratization in recent decades, yet wounds from past wrongs – committed in times of colonialism, war, and dictatorship – still remain. Of all the countries in the northeast region coping with historical injustice, the Republic of Korea has the rare distinction of confronting internal and external historical injustices simultaneously, both as a victim and as a perpetrator. Korea’s experience highlights the major forces shaping the reckoning and reconciliation process, such as democratization, globalization, regional integration, and nationalism, in addition to providing valuable insight into the themes of historical injustice and reconciliation within the region.
Although there is no universal formula for reconciliation, the contributors examine the reaction of society from the perspective of citizens’ groups, NGOs, and victim-activist groups toward such issues as enforced labor, ,comfort women, and internal injustices committed during the wars to foster a better understanding of the past and thus aid in future reconciliation between other Northeast Asian countries.
Mitchell, Derek
Abstract
A unified Korean Peninsula will challenge U.S. strategy and policy toward the Asia-Pacific region. In this context, CSIS is conducted a 12-month study aimed at designing a framework for U.S. policy objectives toward a unified Korea to anticipate challenges to U.S. interests and consider ways to manage them in a changing security environment.
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