Summary
As Iran’s nuclear program continues to evolve, U.S. decisionmakers will confront a series of critical policy choices involving complex considerations and policy trade-offs. These policy choices could include dissuading Iran from developing nuclear weapons and deterring Iran from using its nuclear weapons, if it were to acquire them. To be successful, the United States will need to find ways to influence Iran’s calculations of costs and benefits as Iran pursues its national security interests (survival of the regime, protection of the homeland, and expansion of its regional influence). The United States will also need to reassure its partners in the region of the credibility of the U.S. deterrent posture so as to reduce the Gulf Cooperation Council states’ potential interest in developing their own nuclear weapons and dissuade Israel from pursuing unilateral military actions or openly declaring its nuclear posture. The U.S. Air Force, supporting combatant commanders, will play a prominent role in implementing the policy choices, and so it needs to prepare by understanding the goals and timelines of potential military tasks and by designing exercises and war games to support different policy choices.
Country or Region: Iran
Cronin, Patrick M
Summary
North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, while Iran is poised to acquire them in the next decade. How the United States and other nations seek to roll back these burgeoning nuclear powers is among the most urgent issues of the day. At stake is regional security in the Persian Gulf and Northeast Asia, America’s standing abroad, and prospects for nuclear non-proliferation. This book offers complementary international perspectives on these threats and the peaceful responses to grapple with the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs. Leading authorities provide balanced analyses—together with new chronologies and maps—that make the volume an invaluable reference for all those interested in understanding options available in dealing with Iran and North Korea.
The contributors to this volume offer complementary international perspectives on the critical security issues that stem from the challenges posed by Iran and North Korea. No other work combines the analysis of the two countries and explores the threat posed by each to regional stability and world order. The book examines how and why attempts to curb the nuclear programs and broader political ambitions of each nation have failed. It also examines how each nation, in its own way, has managed to defy the world’s preponderant power, the United States, as well as other major powers and the United Nations. And it offers analysis on where the fractured and oscillating relations with these two nettlesome actors are heading and the long-term implications of their current trajectories for nuclear proliferation, deterrence, alliance management, regional security, and world order.
Chubin, Shahram
Summary
Iran is aggressively seeking nuclear technology that could be used for making weapons –and its quest has set off alarms throughout the world. This widespread concern stems in part from Iran’s uncertain intentions and recent history. Will it remain a revolutionary power determined to subvert its Sunni Arab neighbors, destroy Israel, and spread theocratic government to other lands? Or would an Iran with nuclear weapons merely defend its territory from foreign aggression and live in peace with its neighbors? Are the country’s leaders and society willing to negotiate limits on nuclear capability and normalize relations with the West, or will they resist accommodation? Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions provides a rare, balanced look into the motivations, perceptions, and domestic politics swirling around Iran. Shahram Chubin, an Iranian-born security expert, details the recent history of Iran’s nuclear program and diplomacy. He argues that the central problem is not nuclear technology, but rather Iran’s behavior as a revolutionary state, with ambitions that collide with the interests of its neighbors and the West. Topics include: The view from Tehran Iran’s nuclear energy rationale, domestic politics, and decision making. Sources of concern, including the nature of Iran’s regime, its nuclear infrastructure, missile development, and terrorism Iran’s negotiating strategy The international response Iran and regional security, including the U.S. as a threat and rival, Iran’s regional ambitions, and Israel Policy options.
Barzegar, Kayhan
Abstract
This article argues that, paradoxically, the nuclear issue is the only thing with enough potency to foster a broader detente & reconciliation between Iran & the US. It is asserted that Iranian nuclear development continues to enjoy a political consensus at the elite level that centers on bargaining with the West from a position of strength. Further, the Iranian political elite & public see the nuclear issue as an avenue to achieving a long sought after regional status amid domestic challenges & regional security concerns. Thus, the nuclear program, i.e., the quest for an independent nuclear fuel cycle, is strategic & equated with deterrence, not weaponization, which, it is argued, could result in Iran being labeled a pariah. Why weaponization is untenable to the Iranian leadership is examined, along with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s likely diplomatic course in his second term. Three scenarios for how the nuclear issue might pan out are presented, & it is contended that each side must heed the urgency to pursue talks.
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Abrams, Elliott, and Robert D. Blackwill
Summary
Iran: The Nuclear Challenge maps the objectives, tools, and strategies for dealing with one of the most vexing issues facing the United States and global community today.
The book brings together leading experts — CFR’s Elliott Abrams, Robert D. Blackwill, Robert M. Danin, Richard A. Falkenrath, Matthew Kroenig, Meghan L. O’Sullivan, and Ray Takeyh — on the issues and contingencies surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, including sanctions, negotiations, U.S. and Israeli military options, regime change, and how to deal with a latent or actual Iranian nuclear weapons capability.
This volume presents one of the clearest pictures of Iran’s nuclear program to date, along with the various policy options available to the United States and others and their potential consequences.
Nia, Mahdi Mohammad
Summary
The strategic position of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the crossroads of the Middle East, the Persian Gulf and Central Asia has made the country an important actor in world politics. Hence, understanding Iranian foreign policy is so important to craft an appropriate policy towards the state. This approach helps us to answer the question that why Iranian foreign policy toward the Western countries in general and the United States in particular, even when under systemic pressures, has remained relatively unchanged. The author believes that Holistic Constructivism is considered the most applicable theory for explaining Iranian foreign policy. Holistic constructivism links the two levels of analysis: domestic and systemic normative environment and considers them as two determining factors affecting states’ foreign policy. On this basis, this research identifies the relevant “domestic” and “systemic” social discourse affecting Iranian foreign policy since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Farhi, Farideh
Abstract
It is perhaps no exaggeration to suggest that the crafting and re-crafting of national identity through actions of authorities and/or political mobilization and struggle has been a national preoccupation in modern Iranian history. This is not to imply that Iranians and their political leaders, going through the global process of modernity, have been any more or less creative than others in the world in re-inventing their “national” selves. However, a case can be made that in the past century Iranians have been afforded, or have produced, more opportunities to re-create themselves in a bombastic and dualistic fashion, energetically vacillating between extremes of contentious Islamism and secularism, pre-Islamic and Islamic imagination, and avid anti-imperialism and absorption in global trends.
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Sarwar, Sahrish and Mahwish Sarwar
Summary
This book provides a clear, detailed and current introduction to the importance of energy security as a topic that has been discussed for a long time. Energy plays an important role in the industrial and economic sector of a state to meet its ever increasing demands. South Asian region is facing a number of challenges where energy shortage is at the forefront. India and Pakistan’s foreign policy is driven more and more by its energy security concern. In order to maintain its booming economy, policy makers in India and Pakistan are turning to the repulsive regimes such as Iran. Therefore, it is necessary for economy as well as the people of the entire South Asian region to realize the importance of IPI project as having the potential for peace between India and Pakistan. It may have enormous potential to lock them into an irreversible economic interdependence, thereby strengthening their efforts to promote cooperation in other potential areas. It provides a lucid and accessible analysis of potential benefits and risks regarding IPI Gas pipeline using this to clarify political debates. The two set of expectations can be very different and in fact, conflict with each other.
Nau, Henry R., and Deepa M. Ollapally
Summary
Worldviews of Aspiring Powers provides a serious study of the domestic foreign policy debates in five world powers who have gained more influence as the US’s has waned: China, Japan, India, Russia and Iran. Featuring a leading regional scholar for each essay, each essay identifies the most important domestic schools of thought–nationalists, realists, globalists, idealists/exceptionalists–and connects them to the historical and institutional sources that fuel each nation’s foreign policy experience. While scholars have applied this approach to US foreign policy, this book is the first to track the competing schools of foreign policy thought within five of the world’s most important rising powers. Concise and systematic, Worldviews of Aspiring Powers will serve as both an essential resource for foreign policy scholars trying to understand international power transitions and as a text for courses that focus on the same.
Furukawa, Katsuhisa, Michael J. Green, James J. Wirtz, Yuri Fedorov, Avner Cohen, Peter R. Lavoy, Kang Choi, Tan See Seng, and Rod Lyon
Summary
The Long Shadow is the first comprehensive, systematic examination of the roles and implications of nuclear weapons in the dramatically different post–Cold War security environment. Leading experts investigate the roles and salience of nuclear weapons in the national security strategies of twelve countries and the ASEAN states, and their implications for security and stability in a broadly defined Asian security region that includes the Middle East. The study also investigates the prospects for nuclear terrorism in Asia.
A chief conclusion of the study is that nuclear weapons influence national security strategies in fundamental ways and that deterrence continues to be the dominant role and strategy for the employment of nuclear weapons. Offensive and defensive strategies may increase in salience but will not surpass the deterrence function. Another major conclusion is that although there could be destabilizing situations, on balance, nuclear weapons have reinforced security and stability in the Asian security region by assuaging national security concerns, strengthening deterrence and the status quo, and preventing the outbreak and escalation of major hostilities.
As nuclear weapons will persist and cast a long shadow on security in Asia and the world, it is important to reexamine and redefine “old” ideas, concepts, and strategies as well as develop “new” ones relevant to the contemporary era. In line with this, the global nuclear order should be constructed anew based on present realities.
Sagan, Scott D., and Kenneth N. Waltz
Summary
A long-time staple of International Relations courses, this new edition continues the important discussion of nuclear proliferation, while looking at the regions and issues now at the forefront of the nuclear question. Over the past fifteen years, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons has been a staple in International Relations courses because of its brevity and crystal-clear explanations. The new edition, An Enduring Debate, continues the important discussion of nuclear proliferation and the dangers of a nuclear-armed world. With new chapters on the questions surrounding a nuclear North Korea, Iran, and Iraq and the potential for a world free of nuclear weapons, this Third Edition will continue to generate a lively classroom experience.
Lettow, Paul
Summary
In this Council Special Report, Paul Lettow examines the shortcomings of the nonproliferation regime and proposes a comprehensive agenda to shore it up. He first explores the challenges facing current arrangements, chief among them the spread of enrichment and reprocessing technologies needed to produce fissile material. Lettow then makes a variety of recommendations. First, he calls for tighter sanctions on Iran with the goal of dissuading it from continuing its nuclear advances and discouraging others from following Tehran’s path. To combat the spread of enrichment and reprocessing, the report urges the United States to lead nuclear suppliers in developing a system that would allow the sale of relevant equipment and technology only to countries that meet demanding criteria. As regards a potential multilateral nuclear fuel bank, the report argues for limiting participation to states that have a strong nonproliferation record and agree not to make their own nuclear fuel. Lettow further recommends a larger budget, more authority, and various policy changes for the International Atomic Energy Agency so that it can better detect dangerous violations of nonproliferation agreements. Finally, he urges a series of steps in the United Nations Security Council to punish violators and deal with countries that seek to withdraw from the NPT while in noncompliance with their obligations.
To read the report, click here.
Cirincione, Joseph, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar
Summary
Deadly Arsenals provides the most up-to-date and comprehensive assessment available on global proliferation dangers, with a critical assessment of international enforcement efforts. An invaluable resource for academics, policymakers, students, and the media, this atlas includes strategic and historical analysis; maps, charts, and graphs of the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and missile delivery systems; descriptions of the weapons and regimes—and policies to control them; and data on countries that have, want, or have given up weapons of mass destruction. The new edition addresses the recent, dramatic developments in Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, and the nuclear black market, analyzing strategic and policy implications. A Choice outstanding academic title from one of the premier nonproliferation research teams.
Corera, Gordon
Summary
A.Q. Khan was the world’s leading black market dealer in nuclear technology, described by a former CIA Director as “at least as dangerous as Osama bin Laden.” A hero in Pakistan and revered as the Father of the Bomb, Khan built a global clandestine network that sold the most closely guarded nuclear secrets to Iran, North Korea, and Libya.
Here for the first time is the riveting inside story of the rise and fall of A.Q. Khan and his role in the devastating spread of nuclear technology over the last thirty years. Drawing on exclusive interviews with key players in Islamabad, London, and Washington, as well as with members of Khan’s own network, BBC journalist Gordon Corera paints a truly unsettling picture of the ultimate arms bazaar. Corera reveals how Khan operated within a world of shadowy deals among rogue states and how his privileged position in Pakistan provided him with the protection to build his unique and deadly business empire. It explains why and how he was able to operate so freely for so many years. Brimming with revelations, the book provides new insight into Iran’s nuclear ambitions and how close Tehran may be to the bomb.
In addition, the book contains startling new information on how the CIA and MI6 penetrated Khan’s network, how the U.S. and UK ultimately broke Khan’s ring, and how they persuaded Pakistan’s President Musharraf to arrest a national hero. The book also provides the first detailed account of the high-wire dealings with Muammar Gadaffi, which led to Libya’s renunciation of nuclear weapons and which played a key role in Khan’s downfall.
The spread of nuclear weapons technology around the globe presents the greatest security challenge of our time. Shopping for Bombs presents a unique window into the challenges of stopping a new nuclear arms race, a race that A.Q. Khan himself did more than any other individual to promote.
Ogilvie-White, Tanya, and David Santoro, eds.
Summary
From the publisher: In recent decades the debate on nuclear weapons has focused overwhelmingly on proliferation and nonproliferation dynamics. In a series of Wall Street Journal articles, however, George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn called on governments to rid the world of nuclear weapons, helping to put disarmament back into international security discussions. More recently, U.S. president Barack Obama, prominent U.S. congressional members of both political parties, and a number of influential foreign leaders have espoused the idea of a world free of nuclear weapons.
Turning this vision into reality requires an understanding of the forces driving disarmament forward and those holding it back. Slaying the Nuclear Dragon provides in-depth, objective analysis of current nuclear disarmament dynamics. Examining the political, state-level factors that drive and stall progress, contributors highlight the challenges and opportunities faced by proponents of disarmament. These essays show that although conditions are favorable for significant reductions, numerous hurdles still exist. Contributors look at three categories of states: those that generate momentum for disarmament; those with policies that are problematic for disarmament; and those that actively hinder progress—whether openly, secretly, deliberately, or inadvertently.
