Abstract: Ever since the Indo-Pacific re-emerged as a viable strategic concept in 2017 and Asia’s four democratic major powers — the United States, Japan, Australia and India — reconvened their quadrilateral security dialogue (the Quad), Southeast Asian countries have been wary of ASEAN losing its centrality in the regional political and economic order. The conceptual linkage of the two oceans and consequent expansion of geopolitical space was bound to have this effect to some extent. Moreover, the combination of four democratic major powers in a region largely home to single-party governments and authoritarian regimes raised the spectre of goals beyond the containment of China, or at least the containment of China through the creation of democratic transitions on its periphery — this was an argument the original boosters of the Quad in Washington had made in 2007. Finally, the overlaying of the Quad on the Indo-Pacific concept gave rise to fears of a return to Cold War–style containment, this time of China, and major-power politics rearing its ugly head yet again in Southeast Asia. Although these concerns are real and require a response from ASEAN, Southeast Asian countries can expect to find support from an unexpected quarter: India. Full text available here.
Country or Region: India
Verma, Raj
Abstract: The article asserts that China’s NOCs [national oil companies] have trumped Indian oil companies in four ways. First, Chinese NOCs have more oil blocks in Angola and Nigeria relative to Indian oil companies. Second, NOCs from China are able to outbid Indian oil companies if and when they directly compete for the same oil blocks. Third, Chinese NOCs have better quality oil blocks compared to Indian oil companies. Fourth, Chinese NOCs are preferred as partners by African NOCs and international oil companies. It provides a more comprehensive explanation of the above observations by examining macro level factors such as difference in the economic, political and diplomatic support received by the Chinese and Indian oil companies from their respective governments and foreign exchange reserves and micro level factors such as access to capital, rate of return on investment, pricing of oil and risk aversion. Full text available here.
Kumar, Shivaji
Abstract: Incoherent, or even nonexistent, is the common criticism leveled at India’s public opinion. Given this criticism, scholars of Indian foreign policy often do not consider public attitudes in their research. Contrary to this, I trace the evolution of India’s public opinion and foreign policy connections since the early 1990s to demonstrate that the Indian public has opinions on foreign policy and that those opinions have limited but growing impact on the country’s foreign policy. Full text available here.
Hossain, Delwar, and Md. Shariful Islam
Abstract: The paper analyses Bangladesh-India maritime connectivity in the Bay of Bengal region from a Bangladesh perspective. It aims at contributing to emerging literature on policy studies on maritime issues. It argues that to a larger extent, stability, prosperity and progress of Bangladesh depend on exploring and exploiting her untapped marine resources in the Bay of Bengal region. More than 90 per cent of Bangladesh’s trade takes place through the sea. At the same time, there are growing maritime issues and concerns in the Bay of Bengal region that Bangladesh and India can jointly address. Consequently, the paper argues that it is of paramount interest for both Bangladesh and India to deepen their bilateral maritime connectivity in order to promote maritime cooperation. Areas and possibilities of maritime connectivity are visible from blue economy to joint research promotion. However, that connectivity needs to be based on reciprocity and mutual respect, but not on a zero sum pattern. Full text available here.
Hardy, Dennis
Abstract: The Bay of Bengal has for centuries been the scene of commercial and cultural interactions between the surrounding countries. In contrast, the second half of the twentieth century saw something of a hiatus. That break in continuity has now passed and the aim of this paper is to demonstrate how, in response to changing circumstances, a new dynamic is evolving. For different reasons, the region is being ‘repositioned’. One fundamental change is that the strategic redefinition of the Indian Ocean, so that it becomes part of the more expansive Indo–Pacific region, has effectively shifted the Bay eastwards. China’s presence in the region emphasizes this, while the littoral countries are all themselves on the frontline of far-reaching change. Nothing is as it was. Yet, for all that, the framework of governance is weak, opening the question of how to bring it more into line with the realities of the new situation. Full text available here.
Rao, P.V
Abstract: Motivated by regional economic integration and geo-strategic interests, the Bay of Bengal (BOB) littorals are now striving to build land and maritime connectivities to promote trade and investment networks. India’s geographic centrality to the BOB region makes it indispensable to any regional connectivity plan. Indeed, regional groups such as SAARC and BIMSTEC also encouraged its members to devise regional plans to build transport infrastructure; however, no enthusiasm was exhibited to create such linkages until recently when extra regional initiatives primarily by China began transforming the economic and geopolitical profile of the region as it pushed for transportation links with the BOB countries. Beginning with Burma, China moved ahead constructing a chain of infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Thailand. Against this backdrop, this paper argues that more the extra regional initiatives than intra regional efforts have driven the BOB states to promote intraregional connectivities. Full text available here.
Kaul, Divesh
Abstract: The Indian Ocean region has seen an exchange of goods and commodities since antiquity. Long before the emergence of modern nation states and the Westphalian concept of sovereignty, Indian territory saw a regular arrival of foreign merchants and commodities. At the same time, there is a long history of Indian merchants and commodities exploring the expanses of Southeast Asia, West Asia, Southeast Africa and beyond. The Indian Ocean region comprises a number of emerging and developing economies and is considered a dynamic region in terms of trade prospects. A number of preferential trade agreements are doing the round in this region which not only present a prospect to revive the age-old trade linkages within the Indian Ocean region but also foster a promising model of South-South cooperation. Being a large economy, India has an important role to play within the region. Not only that, platforms such as RCEP present India an opportunity to participate in rule-making in the realms of international economic law. Such engagements become even more significant when rule-making at the global trade institution WTO is experiencing a phase of stagnation and while the world is witnessing a wave of protectionism, isolationism, and very recently, a trade war between two giant economies. Full text available here.
Basu, Titli
Abstract: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s strategic pursuit of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, anchored in his conceptualisation of the ‘Confluence of the Two Seas’ and founded on the principles of universal values and norms, has created space for India in Japan’s grand strategy. India has been identified as a key variable in the geopolitical churning that is shaping the Indo-Pacific discourse, both in Japan and the USA. However, as policy positions are articulated by respective leaders, ambiguities around the Indo-Pacific puzzle demand more clarity. While President Trump and Prime Minister Abe are aligned in terms of pursuing the Indo-Pacific strategy – with the objective of managing the US-led strategic order amidst Chinese attempts in claiming equity in international affairs with alternative ideas, institutions, and infrastructure – Prime Minister Modi has articulated India’s Indo-Pacific vision as a free, open and ‘inclusive region, including all countries in the geography as also others beyond who have as take in it’. Although there are certain gaps in each country’s nuanced interpretation of the Indo-Pacific construct, a few common elements define the India-Japan ‘winning combination’ in the Indo-Pacific, such as upholding ASEAN centrality; the objective of securing strategic stability and economic prosperity based on the pillars of shared universal norms and values; facilitating infrastructure and connectivity between the sub-regions, including Bay of Bengal, the Mekong region, and the Indian Ocean for better economic integration and leveraging regional production networks and value chains; and securing maritime global commons by strengthening security cooperation with like-minded partners. Full text available here.
Tourangbam, Monish
Abstract: Non-alignment, the lodestar of India’s foreign policy decision-making, has gradually morphed into multi-alignment. Irrespective of the change in nomenclature, the point then and now is essentially about making the most of the prevalent nature of global geopolitics for the protection and promotion of India’s national interest. The difference could be that non-alignment guided India’s way in a bipolar world; multi-alignment is meant to guide India’s Rise in a multi-polar world. Multi-polarity is seen by many as more benign than a bipolar or a unipolar world. Many countries, including India, are seen pronouncing that their interest will be better served in a multipolar world order, and India’s foreign policy is often projected as pursuing suchan order. Bipolarity is usually condemned as world of military blocs, which had elicited the Non-aligned policy from India. Uni-polarity has, in any case,never been seen as a natural order or in the interest of countries like India.Thus, this has left multi-polarity as the preferred choice. Indeed, multi-polarity comes across as a configuration, which gives the space for more power centres in the international system to pursue their interests. It seems to allow more choices of aligning with different actors as per the strategic calculations of a particular country. Full text available here.
Matheswaran, M
Preview: India-Pakistan-China relations determine South Asia’s strategic stability. Recent Events and disputes have heightened regional tensions, and have drawn the world’s attention on the region’s potential for conflict. The fact that all three nuclear weapon states have long-standing border disputes has been used by the non-proliferation lobbies to consistently highlight South Asia as a nuclear flash point. The intractable Kashmir dispute continues to be cited as the potential trigger for any nuclear escalation. These concerns were brought to the foreas the world witnessed the two nuclear armed adversaries fight it out on the Himalayan heights of Kargil in May 1999. While India fought the war firmly, and displayed significant escalation control and management of international opinion, it must be acknowledged that both countries kept the conflict below the nuclear threshold, thus questioning the nuclear flash point theory. Full text available here.
Muralidharan, M.P
Abstract: The economic importance of oceans to nations is well known. Nearly 80 percent of the world trade by volume is carried out through ships and this includes the energy needs of the world such as petroleum, both crude oil and its by-products and now increasingly, LNG. Trade and energy security or ensuring the uninterrupted flow of trade and energy needs via the sea route will remain a concern for most nations in the foreseeable future. This would, in turn, lead to bilateral and multi-lateral links at regional and global levels thus impacting foreign policy. It would be appreciated that oceans are also an important repository of energy as well as food resources. Furthermore, with improvement or availability of cheaper technology, nations also look to extract poly metallic nodules or other minerals from the sea for industrial use. Nations attempt to extract the above mentioned resources from the sea on their own from their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) or would cooperate with other nations to do so. In either case, such activities would impact bilateral and regional relationships. It is evident that all such activities have a maritime security dimension. Full text available here.
Muralidharan, M.P
Abstract: Global economic growth has always been linked to trade, generating employment, wealth and as a result enhancing overall living standards of people. Seaborne trade has been a vital component of world trade through ages, since it has been the cheapest mode of transport for conveying large volumes of cargo over long distances. In the modern era, bulk of the energy needs of nations, such as oil and LNG has always been transported through sea. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, independent India’s first PrimeMinister was very perceptive in stating that “By and large it can be said that even in the past and remote ages, it was the seafaring nations that prospered, prospered both from point of view of power and wealth because of trade and commerce. I do not say that landlocked nations have not been powerful, they certainly have been powerful for periods at a time, but on the whole the importance of sea power has been a dominant feature of history.” Full text available here.
Banerjee, Gautam
Abstract: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) identifies its primary interest with the perpetuation of the governance of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Continuation of the citizen’s acceptability is, therefore, the most salient concern for the CPC regime, which, unlike the bygone days of peasant revolutions, cannot be any easy goal to achieve in the ‘information’ world of today. This concern, inter alia, is considered by the Chinese leadership to be best addressed by the PRC securing its ‘rightful status as a global super-power’, the road to which is sought to be found through establishment of China’s global economic centrality, ‘consolidation’ of absolute control over its peripheral territories, achievement of regional political-military hegemony and affirmation of its superior status through ‘recovery’ of self-proclaimed ‘lost territories’. Full text available here.
Chhatwal, Ravinder Singh
Abstract: The Indian armed forces need not match the numerical superiority of the PLA in terms of manpower and equipment. There is no need for India to get into an arms race with China and match its inventory weapon for weapon. India needs to concentrate on maintaining a technological asymmetry to deter China from any attempts at coercion or to resolve disputes by use of force. Full text available here.
Davar, Kamal
Abstract: A nation’s strength to thwart diverse threats to its interests and adequately address the varied transformational geo-political challenges in today’s highly troubled world rests primarily on its Comprehensive National Power (CNP). The various parameters which contribute to CNP should be robust, sustainable and ever improving. Some of the constituents of CNP are a nation’s economic power, military capabilities, industrial and technological prowess, infrastructural architecture, its population and the resultant demographic dividends, educational and medical reach, societal harmony within and, more importantly, the respect its diplomacy enjoys in the comity of nations. The CNP gets enhanced from a judicious amalgam of hard and soft power leading to augmentation in its smart power. Diplomacy to further a nation’s goals is, unquestionably, a critical dynamic and, if supplemented with defence/military diplomacy, will prove vastly beneficial for a nation. Full text available here.
