Summary
Though a US–China conflict is far from inevitable, major tensions are building in the Asia-Pacific region. These strains are the result of historical enmity, cultural divergence, and deep ideological estrangement, not to mention apprehensions fueled by geopolitical competition and the closely related “security dilemma.” Despite worrying signs of intensifying rivalry between Washington and Beijing, few observers have provided concrete paradigms to lead this troubled relationship away from disaster. Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry is dramatically different from any other book about US-China relations. Lyle J. Goldstein’s explicit focus in almost every chapter is on laying bare both US and Chinese perceptions of where their interests clash and proposing new paths to ease bilateral tensions through compromise. Each chapter contains a “cooperation spiral”―the opposite of an escalation spiral―to illustrate the policy proposals. Goldstein not only parses findings from the latest American scholarship but also breaks new ground by analyzing hundreds of Chinese-language sources, including military publications, never before evaluated by Western experts. Goldstein makes one hundred policy proposals over the course of this book, not because these are the only solutions to arresting the alarming course toward conflict, but rather to inaugurate a genuine debate regarding cooperative policy solutions to the most vexing problems in US-China relations.
Country or Region: China
Goldstein, Lyle J., and Andrew S. Erickson
Abstract
The Naval War College has expanded its expertise in the Asia-Pacific Rim region in recent years largely in response to the growing significance of the region to U.S. national security. The College has actively hired prominent scholars and hosted a number of conferences, workshops, and guest speakers focusing on the problems and possibilities facing the Pacific Rim. South and Northeast Asia, after all, are home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies and close American allies, as well as several potential political and diplomatic flashpoints. Even more to the point, China is an ascending economic and military power both in the region and on the world stage. The U.S. Navy plays a leading role in maintaining stability in the region with its strong presence and ability to guard the freedom of navigation in vital sea lines of communication. The efforts of the Asia-Pacific Rim specialists at the Naval War College in some ways represent a case of “back to the future.” One of the proudest episodes in the College’s history came in the 1930s when Newport played a central role in developing the military plans necessary to cope with the ascendance of another Asian economic and military power—Japan. Although we expect that wise diplomacy and national self-interest will prevent a reoccurrence of similar difficulties in the coming decades, there is no substitute for military preparedness and well-thought-out international and regional strategies for dealing with the important region. The Naval War College Press has done its part in providing its readers with many excellent articles on regional security in Asia in the Naval War College Review; an important book—Jonathan Pollack, editor, Strategic Surprise? U.S.-China Relations in the Early Twenty-first Century (released March 2004); and now Newport Paper 22. Professor Lyle Goldstein of the Strategic Research Department of the College’s Center for Naval Warfare Studies has been at the forefront of recent research into China’s future. In this project he has guided a handful of naval officers through the puzzle of China’s ongoing nuclear modernization programs. With the able assistance of Andrew Erickson, these sailor-scholars have examined various aspects of nuclear modernization from ballistic missile defense to nuclear command and control. In general the chapter tells a cautionary tale; the progress of China’s nuclear modernization documented here should give pause to those inclined to dismiss China’s military modernization. Steadily and with relatively little attention the People’s Republic continues to improve its technologies and weapons systems. As the authors emphasize, no “Rubicon” has been crossed, but potentials are already apparent that, if realized, the U.S. Navy as now constituted would find challenging indeed.
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Fisher, Richard
Summary
Until now, no single volume has provided an authoritative, comprehensive, and concise description of China’s evolving geo-strategy, or detailed how China is transforming its military to carry out this strategy. This book examines the current and future issues impinging on that strategic evolution, in order to facilitate an understanding of the military-strategic basis for, and future trajectory of, a rising China. Fisher examines how China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) remains critical to the existence of the Chinese Communist government and looks at China’s political and military actions designed to protect its expanded strategic interests. And he examines how the United States and other governments simultaneously seek greater “engagement” with China on strategic concerns, while also “hedging” against its rising power. Although China faces both internal and external constraints on its “rise” to global eminence, it cannot be denied that China’s government is pursuing a far-reaching strategic agenda.
Erickson, Andrew S., and Austin M. Strange
Summary
Well over six years of Chinese anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden have directly supported People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) modernization goals and provided invaluable experience operating in distant waters. Lessons learned have spawned PLAN innovations in doctrine, operations, and international coordination. Many of the insights gleaned during deployments are applicable to security objectives closer to home; some officers enjoy promotion to important positions after returning. Anti-piracy operations have been a springboard for China to expand considerably its maritime security operations, from evacuating its citizens from Libya and Yemen to escorting Syrian chemical weapons to their destruction and participating in the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. So great are the benefits to China’s global maritime presence and enhanced image at home and abroad that when Gulf of Aden anti-piracy operations finally wind down, Beijing will have to develop new means to address its burgeoning overseas interests.
Dewan, Sandeep
Summary
China’s Maritime Power dates back thousands of years. China has one of the oldest naval traditions in the world, dating from at least the end of the Warring States period in 221 BC. Nonetheless, China has historically been a continental state with a large ground force and only a coastal navy with limited blue water capability. The rise of modern day China raises considerable regional and security concerns, besides economic and political competition towards finding a rightful place in power politics of the South Asian Region and hence needs a critical analysis. There is a need to focus future strategies to deal with such challenges, both in the medium and long term. An effort to achieve the same has been undertaken in this book. The book is sure to stimulate further discussions on China’s navy and its ambitions.
Denoon, David B.H
Summary
The first of a three-volume series on the interaction of the US and China in different regions of the world, China, the United States, and the Future of Central Asia explores the delicate balance of competing foreign interests in this resource-rich and politically tumultuous region. Editor David Denoon and his internationally renowned set of contributors assess the different objectives and strategies the U.S. and China deploy in the region and examine how the two world powers are indirectly competitive with one another for influence in Central Asia. While the US is focused on maintaining and supporting its military forces in neighboring states, China has its sights on procuring natural resources for its fast-growing economy and preventing the expansion of fundamentalist Islam inside its borders.
This book covers important issues such as the creation of international gas pipelines, the challenges of building crucial transcontinental roadways that must pass through countries facing insurgencies, the efforts of the US and China to encourage and provide better security in the region, and how the Central Asian countries themselves view their role in international politics and the global economy. The book also covers key outside powers with influence in the region; Russia, with its historical ties to the many Central Asian countries that used to belong to the USSR, is perhaps the biggest international presence in the area, and other countries on the region’s periphery like Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, and India have a stake in the fortunes and future of Central Asia as well. A comprehensive, original, and up-to-date collection, this book is a wide-ranging look from noted scholars at a vital part of the world which is likely to receive more attention and face greater instability as NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan.
deLisle, Jacques, and Avery Goldstein, eds
Summary
When the “fifth generation” of Communist Party leaders in China assumed top political positions in 2012-2013, they took the helm of a country that has achieved remarkable economic growth, political stability, and international influence. Yet China today confronts challenges at least as daunting as any it has faced since the reform era began in the late 1970s. In November 2013, the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee announced ambitious reforms to address vital issues, such as giving market forces a “decisive role” in the economy, strengthening the social safety net, assigning greater weight to factors other than economic growth and social order in evaluating local officials, promoting urbanization, and relaxing the “one child” policy.
China’s Challenges brings together fourteen experts on China’s social, economic, political, legal, and foreign affairs to examine some of the nation’s pivotal policy issues. Their wide-ranging analyses cover economic and social inequality, internal migration and population control, imperatives to “rebalance” China’s economy toward domestic demand and consumption, problems of official corruption, tensions between legal reform and social order, and the strained relationships with neighboring countries and the United States that stem from China’s rising power, military modernization, enduring territorial disputes, and rising nationalism in domestic politics.
This timely volume offers a broad and comprehensive look at the issues facing China today and lays the groundwork for understanding the shifts to come. How—and how well—China handles these challenges not only will define China’s trajectory for years to come, but will have repercussions far beyond China’s borders.
Cliff, Roger, Mark Burles, Michael S. Chase, Derek Eaton, Kevin L. Pollpeter.
Abstract
U.S. strategists have become increasingly concerned that an adversary might use “antiaccess” strategies to interfere with our ability to deploy or operate military forces overseas. The authors analyzed Chinese military-doctrinal publications to see what strategies China might employ in the event of a conflict with the United States. They then assessed how these strategies might affect U.S. military operations and identified ways to reduce these effects. It appears possible that China could use antiaccess strategies to defeat the United States in a conflict — not in the sense of destroying the U.S. military but in the sense of accomplishing China’s military and political objectives while preventing the United States from accomplishing all or some of its own. The United States can, however, take steps to counter such threats, including strengthening active and passive defenses at theater air bases, diversifying basing options for aircraft, and strengthening defenses against covert operative attack. In addition, the U.S. military needs to acquire or improve its capabilities in a number of areas, including ballistic and cruise missile defense, antisubmarine warfare, and minesweeping.
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Christensen, Thomas J
Summary
This compelling assessment of U.S.-China relations is essential reading for anyone interested in the future of the globalized world.
Many see China as a rival superpower to the United States and imagine the country’s rise to be a threat to U.S. leadership in Asia and beyond. Thomas J. Christensen argues against this zero-sum vision. Instead, he describes a new paradigm in which the real challenge lies in dissuading China from regional aggression while encouraging the country to contribute to the global order. Drawing on decades of scholarship and experience as a senior diplomat, Christensen offers a compelling new assessment of U.S.-China relations that is essential reading for anyone interested in the future of the globalized world.
The China Challenge shows why China is nowhere near powerful enough to be considered a global “peer competitor” of the United States, but it is already strong enough to destabilize East Asia and to influence economic and political affairs worldwide. Despite China’s impressive achievements, the Chinese Communist Party faces enormous challenges. Christensen shows how nationalism and the threat of domestic instability influence the party’s decisions on issues like maritime sovereignty disputes, global financial management, control of the Internet, climate change, and policies toward Taiwan and Hong Kong.
China benefits enormously from the current global order and has no intention of overthrowing it; but that is not enough. China’s active cooperation is essential to global governance. Never before has a developing country like China been asked to contribute so much to ensure international stability. If China obstructs international efforts to confront nuclear proliferation, civil conflicts, financial instability, and climate change, those efforts will falter, but even if China merely declines to support such efforts, the problems will grow vastly more complicated.
Analyzing U.S.-China policy since the end of the Cold War, Christensen articulates a balanced strategic approach that explains why we should aim not to block China’s rise but rather to help shape its choices so as to deter regional aggression and encourage China’s active participation in international initiatives that benefit both nations.
Chase, Michael S., Jeffrey Engstrom, Tai Ming Cheung, Kristen A. Gunness, and Scott Warren Harold
Abstract
Through extensive primary source analysis and independent analysis, this report seeks to answer a number of important questions regarding the state of China’s armed forces. What have been the overall scope and scale of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) modernization since the mid-1990s, and what is its likely trajectory through 2025? What are the missions Beijing has assigned to the PLA? What are the weaknesses in the PLA’s organization and human capital? What are the weaknesses in the PLA’s combat capabilities in the land, air, maritime, space, and electromagnetic domains? What are the weaknesses in China’s defense industry (research and development and production)? The authors found that the PLA is keenly aware of its many weaknesses and is vigorously striving to correct them. Chinese military publications recognize that this is a tall order. Indeed, the PLA leaders and official media frequently state that the force seeks to harness the capabilities of the information age to conduct complex joint operations, even though it is not yet fully mechanized or structured to command and control the campaigns it aspires to conduct. Although it is only natural to focus on the PLA’s growing capabilities, the authors found that understanding the PLA’s weaknesses — and its self-assessments of the shortcomings — is no less important. Doing so can help provide a sense of the PLA’s priorities for future modernization efforts, support U.S. military engagement with the PLA, and inform the development of strategies to deter or defeat Chinese coercion or use of force.
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Brzezinski, Zbigniew
Summary
As the twentieth century draws to a close, the United States has emerged as the world’s only superpower: no other nation possesses comparable military and economic power or has interests that bestride the globe. Yet the critical question facing America remains unanswered: What should be the nation’s global strategy for maintaining its exceptional position in the world? Zbigniew Brzezinski tackles this question head-on in this incisive and pathbreaking book.The Grand Chessboard presents Brzezinski’s bold and provocative geostrategic vision for American preeminence in the twenty-first century. Central to his analysis is the exercise of power on the Eurasian landmass, which is home to the greatest part of the globe’s population, natural resources, and economic activity. Stretching from Portugal to the Bering Strait, from Lapland to Malaysia, Eurasia is the ”grand chessboard” on which America’s supremacy will be ratified and challenged in the years to come. The task facing the United States, he argues, is to manage the conflicts and relationships in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East so that no rival superpower arises to threaten our interests or our well-being.The heart of The Grand Chessboard is Brzezinski’s analysis of the four critical regions of Eurasia and of the stakes for America in each arena—Europe, Russia, Central Asia, and East Asia. The crucial fault lines may seem familiar, but the implosion of the Soviet Union has created new rivalries and new relationships, and Brzezinski maps out the strategic ramifications of the new geopolitical realities. He explains, for example: Why France and Germany will play pivotal geostrategic roles, whereas Britain and Japan will not. Why NATO expansion offers Russia the chance to undo the mistakes of the past, and why Russia cannot afford to toss this opportunity aside. Why the fate of Ukraine and Azerbaijan are so important to America. Why viewing China as a menace is likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Why America is not only the first truly global superpower but also the last—and what the implications are for America’s legacy. Brzezinski’s surprising and original conclusions often turn conventional wisdom on its head as he lays the groundwork for a new and compelling vision of America’s vital interests. Once, again, Zbigniew Brzezinski provides our nation with a philosophical and practical guide for maintaining and managing our hard-won global power.
Andrews-Speed, Philip
Summary
China is both the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and the country with the greatest challenge to constrain the level of its emissions. The way in which energy is governed in China is an important factor driving its rising level of carbon dioxide emissions. Andrews-Speed analyses the nature of energy governance in China by combining ideas relating to transition management with the theories of new institutional economics and historical institutionalism. This provides a framework for examining the institutions of energy governance and for identifying factors which assist or constrain the country’s path to a low-carbon economy. The author emphasizes the importance of elaborating the adaptive capacity of these institutions.
Andrews-Speed, Philip
Summary
China is the world’s second largest consumer of commercial energy and is therefore a significant contributor to atmospheric pollution. It is becoming a major player in global and regional markets for energy products, services and investment. This book provides an overview of the formulation and implementation of energy policy in China. Part One provides background information on China’s energy sector. Part Two examines the nature of China’s energy policy and of the policy-making process, with examples drawn from the coal and natural gas sectors, as well as from the government’s drive to promote energy conservation and energy efficiency. Part Three focuses on recent efforts to reform the energy sector in China and to regulate it more effectively, paying particular attention to the electrical power sector and to small-scale coal mines. Part Four evaluates, from the perspective of the citizen, policy relating to the electrical power sector and to the closure of small-scale coal mines. Part Five addresses the international dimensions of China’s energy policy, with accounts of both inward and outward investment, and of the international political implications.
Andrews-Speed, Philip, Xuanli Liao, and Roland Dannreuther
Summary
China is frequently described as a threat to regional and global stability and its rapidly rising demand for imported energy is seen as one cause of this threat. This book shows that domestic politics and foreign policy have both played a part in China’s recent major energy policy decisions. However, China’s increasing involvement in the global energy markets can be seen as an opportunity to enhance cooperation and interdependence rather than as a threat.
Andrews-Speed, Philip, et al. eds
Summary
In addition to environmental change, the structure and trends of global politics and the economy are also changing as more countries join the ranks of the world’s largest economies with their resource-intensive patterns. The nexus approach, conceptualized as attention to resource connections and their governance ramifications, calls attention to the sustainability of contemporary consumer resource use, lifestyles and supply chains. This book sets out an analytical framework for understanding these nexus issues and the related governance challenges and opportunities.
It sheds light on the resource nexus in three realms: markets, interstate relations and local human security. These three realms are the organizing principle of three chapters, before the analysis turns to crosscutting case studies including shale gas, migration, lifestyle changes and resource efficiency, nitrogen fertilizer and food systems, water and the Nile Basin, climate change and security and defense spending. The key issues revolve around competition and conflict over finite natural resources. The authors highlight opportunities to improve both the understanding of nexus challenges and their governance. They critically discuss a global governance approach versus polycentric and multilevel approaches and the lack of those dimensions in many theories of international relations.
