How Are Rising Powers Sizing Up Biden Foreign Policy Picks?

Policy Alert #219 | December 18, 2020

Although President Donald Trump has yet to concede the 2020 election, the Electoral College voted on December 14 and confirmed the Biden-Harris victory. Meanwhile, President-Elect Joe Biden has been announcing his picks for key cabinet positions in the upcoming administration, including Secretary of State candidate Anthony Blinken, Secretary of Defense candidate Lloyd Austin, National Security Advisor candidate Jake Sullivan, and U.S. Trade Representative candidate Katherine Tai.

In this Policy Alert, we review how the Rising Powers are reacting to the Biden’s cabinet candidates for the upcoming administration.

China

An editorial from state-owned nationalist tabloid Global Times believes that the key to Biden’s China policy lies in how determined his administration will be in committing to multilateralism and demonstrating the U.S.’s desire to return to international rules broken by the Trump administration:

• “The core of the change is the unilateral mind-set of the ‘America First’ policy. This mentality influences all U.S. foreign policies…The Biden administration needs to restore normal competition in China-U.S. relations. Through communication and by discussing rules with China, it also needs to make sure that the two sides’ competition stays under control.”

In an op-ed for South China Morning Post, an independent newspaper based in Hong Kong, Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corporation and an adjunct professor at the University of Southern California, argues that Taiwan’s concern about the Biden administration rethinking U.S.-Taiwan policy in favor of better relations with China is misguided:

• “Biden penned an important op-ed titled ‘Why America Must Lead Again.’ [January 2020] Although Taiwan went unmentioned, Biden argued that ‘the United States does need to get tough with China’ by ‘build[ing] a united front of US allies and partners to confront China’s abusive behaviors’…And his actions since then, for instance by enthusiastically supporting US arms sales to Taiwan or tweeting congratulations to ‘President Tsai’ upon her re-election (reflecting Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty), have been consistent over time.”

A commentary in South China Morning Post foresees that Biden’s USTR candidate Katherine Tai, the chief enforcement lawyer on China trade issues during the Obama administration, is an excellent candidate who is expected to share incumbent USTR Robert Lighthizer’s hawkishness on trade issues against China:

• “[I]nterviews with more than 10 former colleagues and interlocutors reveal a razor-sharp legal mind, with encyclopedic knowledge on a decade’s worth of China trade issues. She also enjoys popularity across the spectrum of Democratic Party constituents, and also on both sides of the US political divide…‘For the Biden team, that hits on a critical area – to be able to say she worked on these tough cases and brought along our allies. And that’s the kind of tough but cooperative message they are trying to get out there,’ said James Green, who was minister counselor for trade affairs at the US embassy in Beijing while Tai was at the USTR in Washington.”

In an op-ed for Global Times, Sun Chenghao, a research fellow with the Institute of America Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, expects that as Biden inherited the key foreign policy advisors from the Obama administration, U.S. foreign policy will maintain the alliance-focused strategy of the Obama years, but the attention will be directed toward the U.S.-China rivalry:

• “Blinken said Trump has weakened American alliances, abandoned US values and gave China a green light to trample on so-called human rights and democracy. This reflects the reality that the Biden administration will underline human rights and democracy, and will create an ideological alliance by uniting its allies such as Europe, Japan and South Korea in a bid to pile pressure on China…On issues including global governance, climate change and the Iran nuclear deal, Biden is very likely to continue Obama’s philosophy. But when it comes to relations with China, he may incorporate some of Trump’s ideas.”

India

A commentary in the liberal Indian Express predicts that with Blinken as Secretary of State, U.S.-India relations will become a high priority and continue to strengthen under the Biden administration:

• “Blinken talked about the Obama administration making India a ‘major defence partner.’ This epithet was the first time a US administration gave anyone outside its traditional partners…’In a Biden administration, we would be an advocate for India to play a leading role in international institutions and that includes helping India get a seat on a United Nations Security Council,’ he said.”

In an op-ed for The Tribune, Sandeep Dikshit, a former Member of Parliament, suggests that although the bilateral relations are expected to deepen between two countries in the upcoming administration, human rights in India is likely to remain under pressure from the U.S.:

• “Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unlikely to get a free pass on the CAA and the NRC. He may also be nudged from his hard-line position of not talking to Pakistan and asserting that all that remains to be discussed on Kashmir is handing over the occupied part to India…[The Indian American Muslim Council] wanted Blinken, whom it briefed in April this year on the CAA and the NRC, to pursue modifications in both laws to end the ‘inherent anti-Muslim bias’.”

A commentary in The Print sees Anthony Blinken as a strong interlocutor for New Delhi as the Biden administration aims to build on strategic gains made under the Trump administration:

• “Considered to be Biden’s ‘alter ego’, former deputy secretary of state Blinken is expected to continue maintaining the strategic focus on the Indo-Pacific, keeping an eye on checking Chinese aggression in the region…Biden administration’s focus on leveraging the partnership with India at the level of the ‘Quad’ is likely to come at a later stage, work on the Indo-Pacific and attempts to get more countries under the framework will begin immediately.”

Japan

A commentary in the center-right The Japan Times expects that under the advice of Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, the Biden administration is expected to prioritize U.S. allies in East Asia and help mend bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea:

• “Blinken, a veteran diplomat and former point man on promoting trilateralism between Washington and its allies in Seoul and Tokyo, is widely expected to devote significant attention to the South Korea-Japan relationship…Sullivan, who also held top positions in the State Department and White House under President Barack Obama, is likely to be eyeing ways to bring like-minded U.S. allies such as Japan closer after four years of Trump’s ‘America First’ push.”

A commentary in the business-focused Nikkei Asia Report argues that despite having a similar team of diplomats from the Obama years, the Biden administration will be facing a greater challenge in Asia-Pacific because geopolitical landscape in the region has changed drastically:

• “The issues of the region have changed exponentially since the team was last in power. The sprawling TPP agreement Blinken helped craft has gone on without the U.S., which effectively forfeited its leadership in regional trade when Trump abruptly withdrew. And the recent signing of the RCEP without American participation is seen as a wake-up call for Washington…[C]onditioning political relations on democracy could be alienating to exactly those states that the U.S. would like to rally to its banner in the regional competition with China: states like the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand.”

A commentary in The Japan Times worries that Secretary of Defense candidate Lloyd Austin could be a signal of the U.S. paying less attention in security cooperation with partners in the Indo-Pacific region:

• “[T]he glaring omission of any discussion of China or the Indo-Pacific region [in Biden’s announcement of Austin’s candidacy] — which the Biden camp has said will be a top foreign policy priority for his administration — risked sending an alarming message to regional allies such as Japan amid hopes for a continued U.S.-led charge confronting an increasingly assertive Beijing…Prior to Biden’s announcement, Japanese defense and diplomatic officials had said they were taking a wait-and-see approach with Biden and his Cabinet picks, though some have privately voiced concerns that the incoming administration could be less willing to confront Beijing.”

Russia

In an op-ed for government funded RT, George Szamuely, a senior research fellow at Global Policy Institute in London, predicts that by picking Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, the Biden administration will have more global interventions and regime-change operations, resembling the Clinton and Obama years:

• “Blinken’s outlook is that of a career US interventionist, as is that of Sullivan. The opinions of other countries are worth considering only if they coincide with the views of US policymakers…A Blinken-run foreign policy will unquestionably mean abundant use of the familiar regime-change weapons in the US armory: bombs, cruise missiles, weapons shipments to jihadist and neo-Nazi groups to wage proxy wars, economic sanctions, fake “civil society” projects. As for the vaunted ‘international organizations’ that Blinken supposedly champions, their role will be to sign off on US projects.”

A commentary in state-owned Sputnik News criticizes Lloyd Austin’s role as a board member of Raytheon Technology and suggests that Austin’s apparent close ties with the defense contractors means that the U.S. is unlikely to reduce arms sales to its security partners around the world:

• “If his selection is ultimately confirmed, this would give an arms manufacturer official direct oversight of the nation’s $750 billion annual defense budget…This may also clash with Biden’s own policy pledges. During his primary campaign, the former vice president promised to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia and drop US support for the monarchy’s continued bombardment of Yemen.”

A commentary in RT suggests that Russian officials are relieved by Biden’s pick for Secretary of State because Anthony Blinken is seen as the more favorable candidate compared to other possible alternatives, including Susan Rice:

• “Blinken is considered to be ‘sane’ by Moscow, as opposed to Rice, who an official called ‘possessed.’ In particular, one official noted Blinken will have ‘a negotiating mandate’ and ‘direct access to the president,’ in contrast to representatives of the Trump administration, who did not always reflect the position of the leader.”