Rising Powers Say Good Bye and Good Riddance to 2020

No one would disagree that 2020 has been a year filled with turmoil and crises. As a new strain of the virus spreads across the Atlantic, the COVID pandemic rages on while the approval of new vaccines brings a glimmer of hope at the end of a disastrous year. One may have a hard time believing that it was only a year ago when the impeachment of President Donald Trump and the assassination of Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani were the biggest news stories in the world. As 2020 finally comes to an end, what are the Rising Powers’ insights from such a momentous year?

In this Policy Alert, we review how the Rising Powers are saying goodbye and good riddance to 2020.

China

In an op-ed for state-owned newspaper China Daily, Jared Diamond, a professor of geography at UCLA and the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Guns, Germs, and Steel, reflects on the lessons learned from the COVID pandemic and argues that it is necessary for humanity to recognize the need of coordination in tackling future global challenges.

• “Atmospheric carbon dioxide, like COVID-19, does not respect political borders…COVID-19 is a bagatelle, compared to the dangers that climate change, resource depletion, and inequality imply for all of us…That’s why the COVID-19 pandemic gives me hope, even as I mourn the loss of dear friends whom it has killed. For the first time in world history, people around the world are being forced to acknowledge that we all face a shared threat that no country can overcome by itself.”

In an op-ed for China Daily, Jin Ying, a senior fellow at the Institute of Japanese Studies at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, concludes that 2020 has been a year of progressive change in bilateral relations between China and Japan.

• “[T]he two sides should first agree they have differences over some issues and will abide by the consensuses they have reached to appropriately address those sensitive issues… China on its part should respect and pay more attention to Japan’s foreign policy, which no longer is wholly influenced by the US, and encourage Japan to play a bigger role in maintaining the world order.”

An editorial from the state-owned nationalist tabloid Global Times highlights the decline of the U.S. as a global leader during the COVID pandemic in 2020.

• “Many Westerners blame the Trump team for US’ failures this year. Such a conclusion is way too simple and superficial… Even until now, Donald Trump still does not admit his defeat, and his attitude is backed by many voters. This is the result of severe social division… The failure of the US this year stems from its deep scars within. Even its allies will be puzzled on how many problems the change of parties can solve.”

India

In an op-ed for liberal Indian Express, Shaym Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India and currently senior fellow at Centre for Policy Research in Delhi, sees China as a relative gainer from disruptions triggered by the pandemic in 2020 and predicts the emergence of a multipolar global order.

• “Neither the US in its relatively diminished state nor China with its enhanced power can singly or as a duopoly manage a much more diffused distribution of economic and military capabilities across the globe… India’s instinctive preference has been for a multipolar order as the best assurance of its security and as most conducive to its own social and economic development.”

In an op-ed for Indian Express, C. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at National University of Singapore, suggests that the intensification of security cooperation between India and the U.S. is an important milestone for in India’s foreign policy in 2020 and expects that strategic integration with Europe will be a main objective for India in 2021.

• “As Delhi’s difficulties with Beijing continue to mount, the US becomes an even more important security partner for India. But Delhi also wants to insure against the inevitable volatility in the complex dynamic between Washington and Beijing… Most Europeans had convinced themselves that managing Asian geopolitics was America’s burden. But as China transforms the Eurasian landmass as well as the Indo-Pacific, it is abundantly clear that the US alone cannot redress the imbalance.”

An editorial from the center-right Times of India argues that the pandemic has sharpened the political rivalry between the U.S. and China and revealed China as a malign hegemon.

• “President Donald Trump was a political victim of the virus and his defeat may pave the way for the US to again take up a global leadership role, ending the disarray among Western democracies…The pandemic marks the end of the post-Cold War phase of globalisation, characterised by a degree of naiveté. We are headed towards narrower groupings of the like minded, rather than one where everyone was welcome in the fond hope of eventual convergence.”

Japan

In an op-ed for the center-right The Japan Times, Keishi Abe, a visiting fellow at the Asia Pacific Initiative, an independent think tank based in Tokyo, points to Japan’s role in promoting the lessons learned from the relative success of COVID responses in East Asian countries.

• “Avoiding being purely East or West but taking both of them in – this is where Japan’s strategic position lies, and this is the path for the nation to take to survive and prosper… It is necessary for Japan to come up with a vision of how to position and utilize East Asia, with which the nation has built closer ties, in global infectious hazard management and to implement global health diplomacy that encompasses Western nations.”

In an op-ed for The Japan Times, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the Finance Minister of Indonesia, emphasizes the need of reviving multilateral cooperation and global leadership in the post-pandemic recovery.

• “During these extraordinary times, the trade-offs between speed, accuracy and effectiveness in policy-making have become widely apparent. Though most national governments have responded to the crisis in a similar overall fashion, the effectiveness of policies has varied widely across countries, reflecting differences in political leadership, institutional capacity, decision-making processes and other factors …The international community needs to agree on a common platform for driving a recovery that is consistent with the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.”

A commentary article in business-focused Nikkei Asia criticizes the politicization of COVID pandemic in both democratic and authoritarian countries in 2020.

• “As emergent vaccines signal a provisional end to the pandemic, how we choose to interpret the lessons of the past year will have consequences for future generations…The pandemic has already become a prop in the theater of great power politics, widening the chasm between democrats and authoritarians. Yet the lesson of 2020 was the opposite: that some metrics of a good society are widely shared. They reach across the old boundaries of the Iron Curtain, linking countries East and West, big and small.”

Russia

In an op-ed for The Moscow Times, an independent newspaper based in Amsterdam and Moscow, Abbas Gallyamov, an independent political analyst and former speech writer for Russian President Vladimir Putin, argues that support for Putin has considerably dwindled in 2020, and that the opposition has become stronger and more diverse.

• “[Putin] has already become a “lame duck” president in the eyes of many people, a leader on his way out the door. Nobody – not even loyalists – has any hope that the country will improve while Putin remains in office…Changes in Russia’s political parties take on particular importance in the run-up to State Duma elections. There are two main trends here. The first is the radicalization of the lower echelon of the Communist Party, the country’s second largest party…The second trend is the emergence of the strong right-wing party called New People that has proven itself capable of winning elections.”

In an op-ed for the nationalist Pravda Report, Mahboob A. Khawaja, an author who specializes in Islamic-Western comparative cultures and civilizations, criticizes President Trump’s leadership in 2020 and argues that the U.S. is in desperate need for change.

• “Intelligent and conscientious leaders unite masses in crisis but Trump is focused on dividing and driving the American people to violence and unpredictable political chaos…American masses are caught in a storm of ugly confrontational democracy as they appear unenlightened and unprepared to cope with its aftermath…America needs a new message of democratic principles, racial equality and justice, and values which are observed and honored across the board.”