Abstract
The balance of power in East Asia is stable and favors the United States, but the balance of influence is tipping toward Beijing. China’s growing weight stems from its size and market dynamism, reinforced by new-found military restraint and skillful diplomacy that have enhanced its ability to translate power into influence. The shift in the balance of influence, if unaddressed, could undermine U.S. interests. China’s regional goals include expanding Chinese influence, isolating Taiwan politically, marginalizing Japan, maximizing energy security, and limiting vulnerability to U.S. pressure without stimulating balancing behavior. Beijing has sought to avoid confrontation with Washington and to reassure its neighbors of China’s benign intentions. […] East Asian governments are hedging by engaging China bilaterally and multilaterally while maintaining security ties with the United States and encouraging a larger Japanese and Indian regional role. A perceived U.S. neglect of the region, coupled with American preoccupation with the war on terror, is accelerating the shift in the balance of influence. A concerted effort to refocus and enhance U.S. engagement with Asia is sorely needed. This should include active and high-level participation in regional diplomacy, enhanced cooperation on nontraditional security issues, welcoming a constructive Chinese regional role, and development of a comprehensive, government-wide strategy to pursue the full range of American objectives in Asia.
