Abstract
If Xi’s project fails, we can expect an economic and geopolitical Chinese withdrawal, extremely dangerous for both China and the world.
Against an international backdrop of slowing global trade and the rise of the service industry over manufacturing, the Chinese economic model is approaching exhaustion. China is struggling to confront over-indebtedness, excess production capacity, declining competitiveness, unfavourable demographics and the flight of capital. In response, the Chinese government is adopting a change in geo-economic strategy, based on two major initiatives: a transformation of its domestic financial system, and the ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) project. The success of these initiatives will be vital to China’s economic development, political and social stability, and geopolitical emergence.
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