Choi, Youngmi

Abstract
This study aims to analyze the possibility of a multilateral Northeast Asian free-trade agreement (FTA), a China–Japan–Korea FTA (CJK FTA), and estimates the optimal path towards achieving it. Although there have been a number of studies examining why a CJK FTA should be formed given its likely welfare-enhancing effects, studies on precisely how and through what paths it might be formed are extremely scarce. Investigating the influences from industry interest groups and national security relations among China, Japan and South Korea, this study finds that a multilateral path (rather than a sequential path) wherein South Korea plays a key role as a hub (rather than a leader) is the optimal route for establishing a CJK FTA. Although two possible bilateral FTAs (a China–Korea FTA and a Japan–Korea FTA) are more likely to be feasible, in particular, they are less likely to serve as a stepping-stone to multilateral FTA formation. Consequently, this study mainly argues that China, Japan, and South Korea, the three main economies in Northeast Asia, should simultaneously participate in a single round of trade negotiations in order to establish a CJK FTA.
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