Summary
The Department of Defense (DoD) in its 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) concluded that the “anti-access” threat—the complex mix of political, geographic, and military factors that could prevent or delay US forces from deploying to a combat theater—is the dominant strategic challenge confronting future US power-projection operations in regions of potential conflict, particularly in Asia.
To analyze the seriousness of this challenge, this paper focuses on one key aspect—the potential vulnerability of theater bases for land-based fighter aircraft. American combat air power, provided primarily by the United States Air Force (USAF), plays a critical and growing role in US power-projection operations. Over the next two to three decades, Defense Department combat aircraft plans are focused on modernizing the fighter force. Should emerging anti-access threats undermine theater fighter base viability, future US military operations could be jeopardized.
To conduct this analysis, this report addresses four key related issues:
- What are the basing and logistical requirements for land-based fighters in future combat operations?
- To what extent do these kinds of bases (and supporting logistics) exist?
- How vulnerable are these bases to political access problems and to emerging military threats?
- What potential counters are available to minimize these threats?
This report suggests that over the long run, the combined uncertainties raised by political factors, logistics, and emerging military threats mean that the combat power of the land-based fighter force may be significantly constrained in supporting US power-projection operations in an anti-access environment. To hedge, the Defense Department should adjust its current combat aircraft modernization plans, which focus primarily on the acquisition of fighter aircraft, to increase spending on systems less reliant upon forward bases.
Read the report here
