Abstract: In light of recent years’ increasing air and missile threats, both quantitatively and qualitatively, the United States, under its vision for integrated air and missile defense (IAMD), engages in programs for deterring air and missile attacks against the nation and its allies/partners and countering such attacks. IAMD explores the way to integrate attack operations, active defense, and passive defense by command and control (C2) systems against a range of air and missile threats, including attacks by ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, manned and unmanned aircraft, short-range rockets, artillery, and mortar. The IAMD vision, however, has many unknowns. The vision has been discussed extensively within the U.S. Forces, while the IAMD equipment system being developed by the U.S. Forces has made whirlwind progress. Moving forward with IAMD requires not only the integration of U.S. Force capabilities but also working with U.S. allies and partners. Japan will need to make ongoing efforts to integrate the air defense operations and ballistic missile defense of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), while referring to the IAMD initiatives of the United States. Full text available here.
Country or Region: United States
Shoji, Tomotaka
Abstract: This paper discusses Vietnam’s security cooperation with the United States in three phases. Following the end of the Vietnam War in the 1970s, Vietnam and the United States normalized their diplomatic relations in 1995 and took their first step towards security cooperation. Initially, the cooperation was implemented highly incrementally due to deep-rooted mutual distrust. Vietnam’s security cooperation with the United States made significant strides with the reemergence of the South China Sea issue. The U.S.-Vietnam security cooperation advanced rapidly, fueled by the convergence of the two countries’ strategic interests in the South China Sea. The 2014 oil rig incident triggered Vietnam to promote further convergence with the United States. The first visit to the United States by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam was materialized in July 2015. In May 2016, the United States declared the complete lifting of the arms embargo on Vietnam. Such developments created the impression of convergence between the United States and Vietnam. While Vietnam has steadily fostered security cooperation with the United States following the inauguration of the Trump administration, it will likely continue to pursue omnidirectional external relations and give further considerations to achieving a balance in external relations, especially between the Vietnam-U.S. and Vietnam-China relationships. Full text available here.
Flint, Monica
Abstract: With the increasing importance of the US-Japan Security Alliance amidst heightening regional tensions between Japan and its neighbours, the debate concerning the US base presence in Okinawa has polarised many and garnered significant attention in scholarship and the media. Using a qualitative approach, this article analyses the political rhetoric of Takeshi Onaga, who assumed office as Governor of Okinawa in December 2014. The article finds that Onaga uses an essentialist notion of Okinawan cultural identity and history as a tool for political gain to further an anti-base agenda. It contributes a new perspective to the literature on US bases in Okinawa by shedding light on the convergence of representations of contemporary Okinawan identity, ethnicity and history in the local Okinawan political debate. Further, in drawing on examples from Onaga’s Twitter and YouTube accounts, the article responds to the scarcity of literature on the relationship between social media and politics in Japan. Full text available here.
Cottey, Andrew
Abstract: China’s disputes with its South East Asian neighbours and Japan in the South and East China Seas have emerged as important tests of the implications of China’s rise, posing dilemmas not just for regional states but also for other global actors, including European states and the European Union (EU). European responses to these disputes have pulled in three directions: a normative approach emphasising the resolution of disputes within the framework of international law; a power balancing approach, led by France and the United Kingdom, involving support for freedom of navigation operations and strengthened bilateral and EU ties with other Asian states; and de facto acquiescence to Chinese advances in the region. In terms of understanding EU foreign policy, this case suggests a sequence: a normative approach as the initial default EU policy; a turn to power balancing when the effectiveness of that policy is called into question, but also the possibility of acquiescence and consequent divisions amongst EU member states. Europe faces dilemmas in balancing support for the United States, Japan and the South-East Asian states with its strategic partnership with China, but in practice European policy is much closer to that of the former group than that of Beijing. Full text available here.
Xie, Tao, and Donglin Han
Abstract: While much has been written about US–China strategic rivalry, no study to the authors’ knowledge has conducted an empirical analysis of this rivalry. This article fills this gap by investigating whether and how this rivalry affects a country’s response to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The findings of this article indicate that certain aspects of bilateral strategic ties indeed have strong effects on a country’s reaction to the Chinese bank. More specifically, shorter distance to higher a level of partnership with, and more arms purchase from Beijing lead to faster accession to the AIIB, while the shorter distance to Washington results in slower accession, controlling for other factors. In addition, economically developed countries appear to be consistently more eager to join the Beijing-led bank than economically underdeveloped countries. Full text available here.
Heginbotham, Eric, Jacob L. Heim, and Christopher P. Twomey
Abstract: This article examines the domestic influences on US and Chinese nuclear forces. While strategic factors largely drive each side’s, underappreciated domestic and organizational factors also influence outcomes. Partisan politics shape US policies regarding arms control, missile defense, and the roles of nuclear forces. China has its own— more opaque—politics. Organizational factors have affected the status and role of the Chinese Rocket Forces. Constituencies for nuclear weapons have gained ground, and the military services appear to be competing for nuclear missions. The absence of organizational firewalls within the Rocket Forces suggests that assertive operational practices might bleed across different parts of the organization. These domestic influences on US and Chinese nuclear policymaking are likely to have interactive and accelerating effects. Both sides will assume measures taken by the other are driven by strategic intent, when the actual drivers may be mixed. To the extent that domestic factors are responsible, the resulting spirals of suspicion and conflict will be inadvertent—but may nevertheless take on a life of their own. While strategic nuclear interactions are not currently at the center of the bilateral relationship, they may come to be so in the future for all the wrong reasons. Full text available here.
Sutter, Robert
Abstract: Republican-led congressional interaction with the Donald Trump campaign and administration on China-related matters during the 2016 US election campaign and the first year of the new administration involved often grudging adjustments on both sides. Major controversy was avoided partly because China issues often were overshadowed by other policy priorities and partly because congressional Republicans feared retribution from their mercurial leader who was very popular with the party rank-and-file and often harshly punished opponents. Moreover, Donald Trump’s adjustments in 2017 saw him come into line with conventional Republican congressional views on the importance of Asian allies and partners, nuclear weapons nonproliferation and greater US pressure on North Korea and on China to influence North Korea. Full text available here.
Zhao, Suisheng
Abstract: Facing powerful challenges from both China and the US, the long-standing engagement policy is on the defensive. Focusing on advancing American economic and security interests rather than its ideals and prioritizing reciprocity above economic cooperation, the Trump administration has declared China a strategic competitor and escalated a trade war into a multi-front conflict. However, profound interdependence continues underpinning the bilateral relationship. Neither the US nor China can afford to disengage from the other. The two countries are not natural partners but not inevitable enemies either. Competition does not mean confrontation, much less war. Engagement remains the foundation for healthy competition. Full text available here.
Wuthnow, Joel
Abstract: A key feature of Asia’s evolving strategic landscape is U.S. efforts to promote policy coordination and interoperability among its allies and partners, through dialogues, exercises, intelligence-sharing agreements, and other means. Though useful in addressing practical issues and underscoring shared values, a concern is that these ‘minilateral’ activities could exacerbate Chinese fears of ‘encirclement’ and lead to strategic or economic counter-moves. However, this article suggests that a new ‘security dilemma’ in Asia is not likely. Although Chinese officials and analysts are apprehensive about U.S. bilateral alliance developments, they have largely discounted the emergence of an ‘Asian NATO’ under U.S. stewardship. This is due to perceived divergences between U.S. allies, many states’ economic dependence on China, and U.S. self-restraint. This should open possibilities for greater minilateral cooperation under most conditions. Full text available here.
Wang, Honggang
Abstract: Since confidence is fading and anxiety is increasing in the US, America’s China policy has become more radical. In the short term,the US has the upper hand and China is in a relatively passive position. In the medium-and long-term,there will be more balance between them. This current strategic gambling between China and the US will be the major issue of international politics in the first half of the 21st century and the most prominent external challenge China faces. China needs to make strategic adjustments but the gamble may be worthwhile in correcting imbalance in the international order and in the co-evolution of the two countries. Full text available here.
Ke, Jing
Abstract: Since the founding of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the high heterogeneity among its members and the difficulty of coordinating those members’ interests, coupled with the guiding principle of consensus decision-making, have repeatedly led WTO negotiations into deadlocks. Recently, the US, increasingly dissatisfied with the distribution of interests in the current international economic system, has been forcing its major trading partners to make concessions more frequently, using unilateral trade policies intended to reshape the global trade order. Thus, WTO reform is becoming even more complicated due to increased competition among great powers. Expanding regionalism is also likely to turn into a tool for geopolitical competition, posing a greater threat to the institutional basis of the multilateral trading system. China should support the multilateral trading system and guide reforms toward justice, inclusiveness, and openness. Furthermore, as it accelerates the pace of its own reform and opening up, China should narrow its divergence of rules with western countries within reasonable scope, ensure that due attention is given to the appeals of developing countries, and defend the goals and principles of the WTO. Full text available here.
Wang, Shida
Abstract: In recent years, India-US security cooperation has accelerated, overall defense cooperation framework has become increasingly mature and has been continuously updated with the times. The scale of India’ s imports of weapons and military supplies from the United States has continued to expand, and India-US joint military exercises have deepened. Since the Modi government took office in 2014, it has signed two basic military cooperation pacts with the United States, paving the way for further upgrading the two countries’ defense cooperation in the future. India-US counter-terrorism cooperation is starting from scratch and continuing to deepen, further expanding the contents of their security cooperation. India-US close security cooperation has had a serious negative impact on India’ s overall foreign strategy, especially its tradition of long-standing strategic independence. It has eroded material and institutional foundations for India’s strategic autonomy, and deteriorated India’s geostrategic environment, which is not conducive to realizing its dream of being a great power. Full text available here.
Feng, Yujin, and Chen Yu
Abstract: The fourth wave science and technology revolution is quickly ushering in a worldwide military revolution. The major powers such as the United States, Russia and China are all striving to catch up with the wave by accelerating their own research on new military technology and the deployment of new military equipment. This presents significant changes to the international security system: the existing disarmament and arms control system is on the brink of collapse, strategic competition among the big powers has intensified, and the risk of global turbulence is on the rise. The future of international security and its mechanism depends both on the method and direction of the technology revolution, and on the ability of the big powers to put aside their differences and avoid conflict in the major arenas of competition. In this process, China should seek to play a bigger and more constructive role. This would not only be conducive to world peace and development, but is also the only way for China to secure a seat in the future international system. Full text available here.
Jia, Qingguo
Abstract: US President Donald Trump initiated a trade war against China with the intention of altering China’s development model, but trade friction can be resolved through negotiations. Although the short-term outlook on the Sino-US relationship is not optimistic, the two countries’ national interests are best served by avoiding long-term conflict. Trade friction or a trade war can only lead to mutual harm rather than benefits gained by either side. Full text available here.
Chi, Yong
Abstract: Since Donald Trump has come into office as president of the United States, the US foreign policy toward Iran has undergone major changes, which has been prominently manifested in such actions as endorsing hardline advocates who are against Iran to important political offices, withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and imposing high economic, political and military pressure on Iran. The introduction of such policies toward Iran by the Trump administration has not only been brought about by Trump himself, but also influenced by the domestic political environment of the United States. Moreover, it is also closely related to the current changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The Iran policy of the Trump administration will likely have multiple impacts, such as giving rise to political instability within Iran, worsening regional security,impacting the international non-proliferation regime, widening the disparity between the US and Europe, and even increasing the possibility of a military conflict breaking out between the US and Iran. Full text available here.
