Summary
Debate surrounding “China’s rise,” and the prospects of its possible challenge to America’s preeminence, has focused on two questions: whether the United States should “contain” or “engage” China; and whether the rise of Chinese power has inclined other East Asian states to “balance” against Beijing by alignment with the United States or ramping up their military expenditures.
By drawing on alternative theoretic approaches—most especially “balance-of-threat” theory, political economic theory, and theories of regime survival and economic interdependence, Steve Chan is able to create an explanation of regional developments that differs widely from the traditional “strategic vision” of national interest.
He concludes that China’s primary aim is not to match U.S. military might or the foreign policy influence that flows from that power, and that its neighbors are not balancing against its rising power because, in today’s guns-versus-butter fiscal reality, balancing policies would entail forfeiting possible gains that can accrue from cooperation, economic growth, and the application of GDP to nonmilitary ends. Instead, most East Asian countries have collectively pivoted to a strategy of elite legitimacy and regime survival based on economic performance.
Country or Region: Thailand
Dent, Christopher M, and Elspeth Thomson
We bring together a collection of papers that were presented at the inaugural event of the Asia‐Europe Energy Policy Research Network (AEEPRN), held at Singapore in May 2012. The idea for creating AEEPRN was in response to the growing importance of energy in Asia and Europe’s relations and to our shared belief that energy will become a more significant aspect of these relations over the forthcoming years and decades. The papers presented here cover the following themes: wind energy, biofuels, natural gas and gas pipelines, exergy and manufacturing, green energy co‐operation, coal, unconventional gas and solar energy.
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Natsuda, Kaoru, and John Thoburn
Abstract
This paper investigates the policy space open to developing countries under the WTO regime. It is apparent that industrial policy options in developing countries are limited by the TRIPs, GATS, TRIMs and SCMs agreements under the WTO. However, policy options are not fully closed, and a narrower range of policies is still available. Focussing particularly on TRIMs, this paper examines the contrasting development of the automotive industries in Thailand and Malaysia, showing the different ways these countries have carved out new industrial policies within the now available policy space.
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Ockey, James
Abstract
The Thai government in 2013 faced numerous challenges: a gradual decline in popularity, continuing insurgency in the South, problems with the economy and economic strategy, and difficult relations with the military. These challenging issues on the agenda led to widespread demonstrations and intractable conflict by the end of the year.
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Chambers, Paul
Abstract
Thailand’s current partisan turmoil is paralleling growing authoritarianism and democratic decay. This article examines contemporary Thai civil-military relations, the state of armed forces unity, and potential outcomes. It argues that amid heightened political uncertainty and diminished democracy, the only surety today is an enhanced role for Thailand’s armed forces.
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Askew, Marc
Abstract
Although violence in Thailand’s southern border provinces declined from its peak in 2007, low-level violence continues to challenge the state. This essay discusses the limitations of paradigms and policy under the current Democrat Party-led government in the context of the enigmatic insurgency and associated opportunistic violence fuelling the instability.
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Magcamit, Michael I., and Alexander C. Tan
Abstract
This paper seeks to explore and explain the process through which Taiwan utilizes free trade – both at multilateral and bilateral levels – in enhancing its shrinking de facto sovereignty against the backdrop of ubiquitous ‘China factor’ in the twenty-first century. It argues that China’s sinicization project creates a scenario wherein increasing cross-strait stability ironically leads to decreasing de facto sovereignty for Taiwan. Due to this existing cross-strait security dilemma, Taiwanese leaders are being forced to preserve the island’s quasi-independent statehood due to fears of losing its remaining de facto autonomy over domestic and foreign affairs. In essence, Taiwan chooses to be de facto free by remaining de jure unfree. Taiwan’s sovereign space, therefore, becomes a pivotal referent object of its national security policy and strategy. Balancing between the two paradoxical interests of enhancing sovereignty while maintaining the Chinese-dominated cross-strait status-quo underlines the relentless games, changes, and fears that Taiwan confronts today.
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Rose, Gideon, and Jonathan Tepperman
Excerpt
The idea that we live in an increasingly interconnected and turbulent world is something of a cliché — yet true and important nevertheless. Decisions made by the U.S. Federal Reserve affect the purchasing power of villagers in southern Thailand; consumer demand in Europe and North America affects the output of factory workers in eastern China, which affects the jobs of oil workers in Brazil, Russia, and elsewhere. Elite investors now routinely send their capital abroad in a ceaseless quest for new opportunities and high returns; whether they realize it or not, hundreds of millions of less highflying people do the same indirectly, through their mutual or pension funds. So global economic forecasting — trying to look past current events to glimpse what’s coming over the horizon — has become an exercise of general, not specialized, concern.
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Ho, Joshua, and Sam Bateman, eds
Summary
Maritime issues are particularly important for Asian countries, where there is a high reliance on shipping routes for international trade, many difficult disputes over maritime boundaries, and the prospect of increasing tensions where maritime power might play a significant role. This book uses contributions by 17 experts to build a comprehensive survey of the maritime issues affecting Asia. It discusses the issues overall, goes on to examine the issues from the perspective of each of 14 key countries, and concludes by assessing the prospects for resolving common problems in order to preserve good order at sea.
Buszynski, Leszek, and Christopher B. Roberts, eds
Summary
The South China Sea is a major strategic waterway for trade and oil shipments to Japan, Korea as well as southern China. It has been the focus of a maritime dispute which has continued now for over six decades, with competing claims from China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei. Recently China has become more assertive in pressing its claims – harassing Vietnamese fishing vessels and seizing reefs in the Philippine claim zone. China has insisted that it has “indisputable sovereignty” over the area and has threatened to enforce its claim. All of this is unsettling and draws in the United States which is concerned about freedom of navigation in the area. The US has been supporting the Philippines and has been developing security ties with Vietnam as a check upon China. This book examines the conflict potential of the current dispute, it discusses how the main claimants and the United States view the issue, and assesses the prospects for a resolution of the problem.
Tow, William T., and Brendan Taylor
Summary
Many scholars of international relations in Asia regard bilateralism and multilateralism as alternative and mutually exclusive approaches to security co-operation. They argue that multilateral associations such as ASEAN will eventually replace the system of bilateral alliances which were the predominant form of U.S. security co-operation with Asia-Pacific allies during the Cold War. Yet these bilateral alliances continue to be the primary means of the United States’ strategic engagement with the region. This book contends that bilateralism and multilateralism are not mutually exclusive, and that bilateralism is likely to continue strong even as multilateralism strengthens. It explores a wide range of issues connected with this question. It discusses how US bilateral alliances have been reinvigorated in recent years, examines how bilateral and multilateral approaches to specific problems can work alongside each other, and concludes by considering how patterns of international security are likely to develop in the region in future.
Samuelson, Ralph D
Abstract
Energy intensity (energy demand per unit of economic output) is one of the most widely used indicators of energy efficiency in energy policy discussions. Yet its application in real-world policymaking can be surprisingly problematical. This paper aims to provide guidance to governments and organizations considering using energy intensity as a policy objective.
In 2007 the APEC community adopted, then in 2011 revised, an APEC region-wide energy intensity improvement goal. This paper presents a case study of that experience, focusing on three key ‘lessons learned’. These lessons are not original findings. However, none of them have received the recognition they deserve, and consequently, they came as a surprise to many of those involved in APEC’s policy discussions.
The three lessons are as follows: (1) Energy intensity improvement is happening surprisingly quickly, but not quickly enough to meet the world’s energy challenges. (2) It is difficult to find a definition of energy intensity that can make it suitable for use as an indicator of regional energy efficiency. (3) Whether the GDP’s of individual economies are converted to common currency using market exchange rates or purchasing power parity (PPP) can dramatically change regional energy intensity improvement calculations.
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Mladineo, Stephen V., and Sarah L. Frazar
Abstract
International safeguards is the system of measures put in place by the International Atomic Energy Agency and states to ensure nuclear programs remain dedicated to peaceful purposes. This international safeguards system consists of agreements, inspections, and evaluations that have never considered the safeguards culture of a state or facility. Neither a common definition nor an understanding of safeguards culture is internationally recognized. This article provides an analysis of the concept of safeguards culture and gauges its value to the international safeguards community. The authors explore distinctions among safeguards culture, safeguards compliance, and safeguards performance, and suggest possible indicators of safeguards culture and methods to promote a strong, positive safeguards culture.
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Chung, Jae Ho
Abstract
How is East Asia responding to the rising China? Pertinent literature suggests that explicit balancing or containment has been rare and engagement, if not appeasement, appears to be East Asia’s modus operandi. Yet, this study argues that certain, though subtle, variations are nevertheless discernible among the regional states in their responses to China’s ascent. Focusing on 15 East Asian states for the period of 2004-2007, the article first presents a bird’s-eye view of East Asia’s responses to the rise of China. More specifically, inter-state variations are empirically demonstrated and four principal patterns—bandwagoning, hesitant hedging, active hedging and balancing—are distilled from the key responses of these 15 nations. The article then examines the sources of these inter-state variations, and argues that they are conditioned largely by three factors: alliances with the United States, regime characteristics and territorial disputes with China. The article concludes with some observations as to East Asia’s complex responses to the rise of China and their security implications for the region as a whole.
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Chang, Felix K
Abstract
Despite worries that ASEAN is becoming weak, the organization remains as strong as it ever was, given the parameters of its design. Its member countries still tightly embrace the organization’s principles, the “ASEAN way.” But simple adherence to those principles can be problematic. ASEAN countries, whose national economic and political interests collide, often appeal to the same principles to back their positions. That tends to pull ASEAN in different directions. Great power policies, particularly those of China and the United States, now exacerbate the situation. At the same time, ASEAN’s reliance on multilateral consensus has made it difficult to reconcile real differences among its member countries or develop unified regional responses. That can be seen in issues from the Xayaburi dam on the Mekong River to the South China Sea. The ease with which ASEAN’s principles can come into conflict and its consensus-driven decision- making can become deadlocked clearly marks the limits of the “ASEAN way.”
