Country or Region: Russia

Sutter, Robert

Abstract: The China-Russia relationship continues to deepen and broaden with ever more negative implications for the U.S. The drivers of Sino-Russian cooperation overshadow the brakes on forward movement at the U.S. expense. The momentum is based on (1) common objectives and values, (2) perceived Russian and Chinese vulnerabilities in the face of U.S. and Western pressures, and (3) perceived opportunities for the two powers to expand their influence at the expense of U.S. and allied countries that are seen as in decline. The current outlook is bleak, offering no easy fixes for the U.S. Nonetheless, there remain limits on Sino-Russian cooperation. The two governments continue to avoid entering a formal alliance or taking substantial risks in support of one another in areas where their interests do not overlap. Longer-term vulnerabilities include Russia’s dissatisfaction with its increasing junior status relative to China, China’s much stronger interest than Russia in preserving the existing world order, and opposition to Russian and Chinese regional expansion on the part of important lesser powers in Europe and Asia seeking U.S. support.

Facon, Isabelle

Abstract: Russia’s strategic culture is deeply rooted in the geographic and spiritual parameters of its history. An important element of this culture has been a search for security through territorial expansion due to an absence of natural physical buffers. This expansionist tendency has been reinforced by a messianic mission tied to Russia’s Orthodox path. These elements have combined to solidify the exceptionalist vision underlying Russia’s claim to be recognized as a great power. Russia’s vast territory, perceived security vulnerabilities, and heterogeneous population have helped entrench a centralized autocratic type of governance aiming to keep internal tensions in check while resisting external pressure through the alternation of defensive and offensive behaviors. These enduring elements of Russia’s strategic culture have resulted in a wavering between feelings of superiority and inferiority toward the West, with this Western-centrism producing relative neglect of the Asian vector of foreign policy; a strong reliance on military tools in national policy; and a continuous balancing between retrenchment and engagement in international affairs.

Wishnick, Elizabeth

Abstract: This article analyzes the shifting dynamics of the China-Russia-U.S. triangle. It argues that shared views on global and domestic politics have driven China and Russia closer together, but that Washington should avoid direct attempts to subvert the budding partnership. Instead, the United States should focus on U.S. interests that reassert its prominence in the trilateral relationship.

Sussex, Matthew

Abstract: Russia’s ambitious decision to ‘rebalance’ its strategic orientation towards Asia is going relatively unnoticed, yet has the potential to generate significant regional effects. It is engaging in a large-scale military modernisation project with the intention of projecting power into Asia. Its relationship with China seems to have deepened considerably. And it is looking to consolidate new and existing partnerships in Australia’s regional area of interest in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, Russia is seeking to tap its considerable energy and resource reserves in the Far East to become a major Asian energy supplier. This recent boldness stems from Russia’s fear of its future weakness. Moscow has no wish to become China’s raw materials supplier, but nor does it want to be a subordinate partner of the West. Instead, it seeks a degree of independence through Putin’s great power vision of Russia as a Euro-Pacific actor. Russia will by necessity have to follow through with its pivot to Asia, and this will mean an increased commitment to make gains in energy, in trade, and in military presence. Australia will need to respond to an enhanced Russian regional presence, as well as take a proactive stance to ensure competition from Moscow does not adversely affect Australian energy security. But there will also be some small incremental opportunities for Australia to re-engage with Russia, in spite of the ongoing friction in the relationship caused by the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

Dave, Bhavna

Abstract: The Russia-ASEAN summit being held in Sochi on 19-20 May 2016 to mark twenty years of Russia’s dialogue partnership with ASEAN is a further indicator of President Vladimir Putin’s ‘pivot to Asia’ policy, triggered also by its current confrontation with the west. Through this pivot, Moscow wants to assert Russia’s geopolitical status as a Euro-Pacific as well as Asia-Pacific power. It is a pragmatic response to the shifting of global power to Asia. It also builds on the growing Russo-Chinese relations to develop the Russian Far East, a resource-rich but underdeveloped region into the gateway for expansion of Russia into the Asia Pacific. At the same time, the growing asymmetry in achieving the economic and strategic goals of Russia and China has resulted in fears that the Russian Far East will turn into a raw materials appendage of China. Moscow lacks the financial resources to support Putin’s Asia pivot. Therefore, Russia needs to strengthen ties with other Asia-Pacific countries and ASEAN as a regional grouping so as to attract more diversified trade and investments into its Far East region. It is in this context that the Sochi summit takes on added significance. However, given Russia’s sporadic interest in Southeast Asia and its strategic role defined mainly by the limited potential of Russian energy and arms exports to ASEAN Member States, the PR diplomacy and summitry at Sochi may not deliver substantive outcomes for Russia. Nonetheless, Moscow aims to enhance its status in the east and seek business and strategic opportunities through the summit thereby compensating to some extent Russia’s loss following the sanctions imposed by the west over the annexation of Crimea.

Stronski, Paul, and Nicole Ng

Abstract: Since the collapse of Russia’s relationship with the West over Ukraine, the Sino-Russian strategic partnership has become more of a reality. Russia and China share a common desire to challenge principles of the Western-dominated international system. But their relationship is complex, with lingering mistrust on both sides. The balance of competition and cooperation is most evident in Central Asia, the Russian Far East, and the Arctic. Engagement in these theaters has tested Russia’s and China’s abilities to manage their differences and translate the rhetoric of partnership into tangible gains.

Trenin, Dmitri

Abstract: Among Russia’s strategic priorities, Asia traditionally played a secondary role compared to the West. In the mid-1990s, then Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov initiated a rapprochement with China and india. Then, in 2014, deteriorating relations between Russia and the West prompted Moscow to begin its “great pivot to the East”. Russia’s “new” Asian policy must avoid two pitfalls: focusing excessively on China, and managing relations with the countries of the region in a strictly bilateral way. Bilateral relations, even with China, need to be parts of a whole, and closely coordinated with other parts. As part of a broader Asian-Pacific strategy, Moscow should seek to build a “Great Eurasia”. This requires an integrated approach to the region as a whole, and an overall approach that embraces geopolitical, geo-economic, military, informational and cultural dimensions.

Shin, Beom Shik

Abstract: This paper is an attempt to analyze Russia’s regional political place and power in Northeast Asia through the US-China-Russia triangularity and to forecast the future of Russia’s place in the region by applying the basic logic and concepts of social network theory such as “social capital” and “structural hole.” From Russia’s perspective, the structural hole that formulated as a result of its own de-link strategy in the 1990s has developed into a determining factor in disabling Russia from regaining its position and influence in the Northeast Asian region. To overcome this obstacle, Russia has continuously developed its diplomatic strategies and reviewed the potential for cooperating with the US. Nonetheless, the US-Russian rivalry and competition at the global level is severely damaging an opportunity for the coming of a stable and cooperative order in Northeast Asia. However, the works of the US utilizing Russia without excluding China, and establishment of a vision for a regional order in the context of fostering stability and cooperation will become an utmost important factor in developing peace and co-prosperity in Northeast Asia. A sort of a semi-triangularity among the US-China-Russia seems more beneficial for regional stability and cooperation.

Shadrina, Elena

Abstract: This article explores Russia’s engagement with Northeast Asia (NEA) in the area of oil and gas and examines the sustainability of Russia’s energy policy vis-à-vis Asia. The study argues that: (1) Russia’s eastward shift is a pragmatic choice to escape the evolution of the EU’s energy-governance institutions to establish a uniformly regulated European energy market, which has become increasingly incompatible with Russia’s state-capitalism mode of energy governance; (2) Russia’s region-specific (Eastern Siberia and Far East) and sector-specific (oil and gas) arrangements prove to be an expedient means to forge Russia’s energy ties with the geopolitically complex region of NEA; (3) to succeed in the long-term, Russia needs to replace its reactive energy policy towards Asia with a proactive attitude vis-à-vis both the evolving individual energy policies of NEA countries and the ongoing institutionalization of the energy markets in the region as a whole.

Skalamera, Morena

Abstract: This study investigates whether, as part of a broader “Asian Energy Pivot,” Russia’s energy giant Gazprom refashioned its export strategy away from Europe, and what impact such a reorientation might have on the EU–Russia gas relationship. It uses four empirical cases to emphasize the domestic movers underlying Russia’s eastward shift in energy trade, developing a constructivist theory rooted in the dynamics of Russia’s dominant public narrative and the contours of domestic politics. It argues that Russia’s national interests changed as a result of how Russian policy-makers interpreted and reacted to the stand-off with Europe, in response to what they perceived as Europe’s attempt to isolate it economically and geopolitically. Russia’s Eurasianists, who had advocated the notion of a necessary turn to the East for a long time, positioned themselves as norm entrepreneurs and their new interpretation of the preexisting material incentives shaped the future course of action.

Skalamera, Morena

Abstract: On 21 May 2014, during a state visit by President Vladimir Putin to Beijing, China and Russia signed a $400 billion, 30-year gas deal. Under this agreement, China will import 38 billion cubic metres of natural gas from Russia’s Gazprom, beginning in 2018. Why, after 15 years of stalemated negotiations, did this breakthrough occur in 2014? Why did a natural, symbiotic gas relationship not develop earlier and more gradually? Most studies explain this by looking at Russia’s international isolation post Ukraine. Based on interviews with both Chinese and Russian officials this article argues the following: domestic incentives, rather than foreign-policy pressures, are the real force behind the timing of Sino–Russian energy breakthroughs in 2014.

Miller, Chris

Abstract: Japan remains committed to building closer ties with Russia, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes that better relations with Moscow would promote the country’s long-term interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia may be ready to develop economic relations with Tokyo, but the Kremlin has made no sign that it intends to compromise on territorial disputes or improve ties as a means of hedging against China. Japan needs to understand the political and ideological links that support the Russia–China relationship, and be aware of Russia’s history with previous Asian “pivots.” Washington should understand the strategic logic of giving Russia diplomatic options in Asia besides reliance on China, and assess whether engaging Russia in Asia could induce Russia to play a less disruptive role in Europe.

Sun, Yun

Abstract: Rarely has any issue been more polarising than the assessment of Sino-Russia relations in recent years. Analysts and observers are either convinced of another emerging Sino-Russia alliance against the West, or dismissive of any meaningful, sustainable strategic relationship between the two while citing their ‘peril of proximity’, painful historical record and the strategic distrust. Neither description accurately reflects the nature of Sino-Russia relations under the Xi Jinping administration in China. In the past three years, China and Russia have forged new foundations for a third option- a strategic alignment primarily based upon a shared sense of vulnerability and threat perceptions regarding their external environment. This is largely the result of the heightened confrontation both China and Russia have encountered vis-à-vis the United States due to their assertive foreign policy in the Western Pacific and in East Europe, (especially in Ukraine), respectively. Furthermore, the personality and preferences of the Chinese top leader and the general public have also played an important role in constructing the strategic alignment as well.

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