Preview: This article begins by describing the broad strategic challenge that North Korea, once armed with an operational nuclear weapons capability, poses to the United States and its allies. It then reviews the history of maritime clashes between North and South Korea in the Yellow Sea (“West Sea” in Korean) and describes the ongoing risk of violent provocations and war. Finally, the article proposes measures that could reduce tension, arguing that they would be mutually beneficial to the United States, South Korea, North Korea, and China, and would contribute to, rather than detract from, an ideal U.S.-led strategy for deterring and containing a nuclear-armed North Korea.
Country or Region: North Korea
Kim, Inhan
Preview: Washington watched the rise of Moon Jae-in with concern this spring. Throughout his campaign to be the new president of South Korea, he pledged to revive the sunshine policy of engagement with North Korea, championed by former liberal presidents Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) and Rho Moo-hyun (2003-04, 2004-08). Moon also vowed to restore economic cooperation with North Korea, which the impeached president Park Geun-hye severed in early 2016 after Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test and missile launch. Moon surprised many by remarking, “I would consider visiting Pyongyang first before Washington if elected president,” a very controversial statement, given the U.S.-South Korea alliance. If Seoul shifted to engagement, it could undermine U.S. strategy, relieving pressure Washington has been applying against Pyongyang’s weapons programs. During the campaign, Moon even criticized the United States’ deployment of a missile defense system (known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense or THAAD) in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, calling it “very regrettable.” In the months following his May 9 election, President Moon has certainly appeared to moderate his campaign rhetoric: Washington was the first stop for his official visit; the first THAAD deployment became complete in early September; and he has called for stronger international sanctions against North Korea’s missile launches and nuclear test. Is President Moon departing from his campaign promise to revive the sunshine policy with Pyongyang? Or is he still looking for an opportunity to adopt and pursue that policy?
Anderson, Nicholas D
Preview: How should the United States approach the Korean Peninsula and the problem of North Korean nuclear proliferation? Since its initial test in October 2006, North Korea has conducted five more, increasing the estimated yield with each one. Pyongyang’s September 2017 nuclear test—which they claimed was a thermonuclear device—had an estimated yield of between 50–280 kilotons, a significant increase from previous tests. Perhaps more alarming to U.S. policymakers, the North has surged forward with its missile program, conducting 15 missile tests in 2015, 24 in 2016, and thus far 19 missile tests in the first 10 months of 2017. The missile program rose to the height of U.S. policy concern in July 2017, when the North successfully tested the Hwasong-14, its first truly intercontinental ballistic missile, with an estimated range as great as 6,500 miles (10,400 km). Discussion has arisen as to whether, or increasingly when, North Korea will be able to marry these two technologies, and successfully mount a miniaturized nuclear warhead on a medium- or even long-range missile. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has concluded that Pyongyang has already reached this milestone, potentially putting Los Angeles, Denver, and Chicago within nuclear striking distance.Thus, time is of the essence, and more clearly on North Korea’s side as they move steadily toward a significantly more robust and threatening nuclear capability.
Sagan, Scott D
Preview: It is time for the U.S. government to admit that it has failed to prevent North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the United States. North Korea no longer poses a nonproliferation problem; it poses a nuclear deterrence problem. The gravest danger now is that North Korea, South Korea, and the United States will stumble into a catastrophic war that none of them wants.
Kim, Sung Chull, and Michael D. Cohen
Abstract: North Korea is perilously close to developing strategic nuclear weapons capable of hitting the United States and its East Asian allies. Since their first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has struggled to perfect the required delivery systems. Kim Jong-un’s regime now appears to be close, however. Sung Chull Kim, Michael D. Cohen, and the volume contributors contend that the time to prevent North Korea from achieving this capability is virtually over; scholars and policymakers must turn their attention to how to deter a nuclear North Korea. The United States, South Korea, and Japan must also come to terms with the fact that North Korea will be able to deter them with its nuclear arsenal. How will the erratic Kim Jong-un behave when North Korea develops the capability to hit medium- and long-range targets with nuclear weapons? How will and should the United States, South Korea, Japan, and China respond, and what will this mean for regional stability in the short term and long term? The international group of authors in this volume address these questions and offer a timely analysis of the consequences of an operational North Korean nuclear capability for international security.
Fitzpatrick, Mark
Abstract: By talking directly with Kim Jong-un, Donald Trump did achieve something unprecedented, but it was all in Kim’s favour.
Bennett, Bruce, James Dobbins, Jeffrey W. Hornung, and Andrew Scobell
Abstract: History suggests that the most probable consequence of the Singapore Summit will be difficult and lengthy negotiation followed by slow and inadequate compliance, quite possibly on both sides.
Dhawan, Ranjit Kumar
Abstract: The Narendra Modi government after coming to power in May 2014 initiated the ‘Act East’ policy to further enhance New Delhi’s engagement with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. However, India’s engagement with the two Koreas has not seen any significant improvement under the Modi government. North Korea’s isolationist policies and its involvement with India’s neighbouring countries with regard to the proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies have proved detrimental for relations between New Delhi and Pyongyang. Following the United Nations Security Council resolutions India has restricted its trade relations with North Korea since 2017, except for food and medical assistance to this reclusive state. On the other hand, India’s interest in South Korea also appears to have waned as bilateral trade relations have not witnessed any dramatic improvement in recent years. Despite South Korea’s claims of being a ‘middle power’ country, its reluctance to take a stand on several issues that concern India has diminished hopes for further improvement in relations between New Delhi and Seoul. This article seeks to discuss the issues and challenges that hamper the improvement of relations between India and the two Koreas in the context of the Modi government’s ‘Act East’ policy.
Salisbury, Daniel
Abstract: Despite one of the most extensive sanctions regimes in history, including an embargo on missile technologies, North Korea has taken huge steps forward in its ballistic missile programme. Daniel Salisbury explores the limitations of, and challenges of implementing, supply-side approaches to missile nonproliferation. Considering North Korea’s recent progress and efforts to evade sanctions, the article highlights the continuing need to strengthen efforts to counter illicit trade in missile-related technologies.
Düben, Björn Alexander
Abstract: The recent developments in North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme have thrown the issue of nuclear proliferation and deterrence in East Asia into sharp relief, but to date the discussion of what long-term impact these developments are likely to have on the international system has not progressed very far. Björn Alexander Düben asks how Pyongyang is likely to behave now that it has passed a major threshold in nuclear weapons development, and what the implications for global security are.
Yang, Xiangfeng
Abstract: In tackling the current nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula, President Donald Trump has invested—especially before the dramatic turn of events since early 2018—a great deal of political capital in President Xi Jinping in the hopes that he might rein in North Korea, China’s traditional ally. However, expecting Beijing to ‘solve’ the problem is unrealistic. Chinese thinking on North Korea—as reflected in policy positions and domestic debates—has been marred by inconsistencies and overcaution and it is now further complicated by the intensifying geopolitical competition with the United States, which also embroils, to a varying degree, South Korea and Taiwan. Beijing has been strenuously walking a fine line between pressing Pyongyang and averting a war, all the while watching its back, particularly with regard to Taiwan and the South China Sea. Beijing’s risk aversion over North Korea and its security competition with the US has led it into a geopolitical conundrum from which there is no clear exit.
Erol, Eda, and Leonard Spector
Abstract: “Countering North Korean Procurement Networks through Financial Measures: The Role of Southeast Asia,” highlights how North Korea has exploited weak financial controls in the region to advance its nuclear and missile programs. The study reviews Security Council and Financial Action Task Force actions to combat such abuse of the international banking system, as well as the role of US sanctions. Effective implementation of these measures in Southeast Asia, the study concludes, could contribute significantly to constraining North Korea and other proliferant states.
Goodby, James E., and Theodore A. Postol
Abstract
The defense system the authors sketch in this article – the Airborne Patrol System – would make it possible to destroy North Korean ICBMs with fast-accelerating, high-speed interceptors before the targeted missile could deploy countermeasures that can defeat the US ground-based missile defense system. The Airborne Patrol System would be based on the well-tested, long-endurance MQ-9 Reaper remotely piloted drone. The big-wing version of the MQ-9 can loiter at an altitude of 50,000 feet for well in excess of 24 hours while carrying a 3,000-pound payload. Drones in the Airborne Patrol System would fly over the Sea of Japan or Yellow Sea, well outside the airspace of North Korea. Each Predator-B would carry two anti-ICBM interceptors. US-led diplomacy will need to carefully set objectives for different political contingencies, so this new defense system could be adaptively used as a lever to persuade and deter North Korea within a wide range of political situations. To be effective in increasing world security, such diplomatic efforts would also need to be closely coordinated, via consultations and agreed understandings, with South Korea, Japan, and probably China and Russia. In principle, the system concept is very simple. Its successful implementation would, however, require an extremely careful and well thought-out integration of technologies.
Herzog, Stephen
Preview
The improved prospects for peace and nuclear disarmament dominated the headlines following the historic first meeting between the leaders of the United States and North Korea, countries that have been bitter adversaries for seven decades.
Kimball, Daryl G
Preview
For most of the past year, North Korea’s provocative long-range missile launches and a high-yield nuclear test, combined with the reckless threats of “fire and fury” and “preventive war” from the White House, have raised tensions and increased the threat of a catastrophic conflict in the region. Some of us warned that nuclear war was closer than at any point since the Cold War.
