Abstract
The popular perception that China stands poised to supplant America as the most important economic partner of key countries in Southeast Asia has led to speculation about a deepening and widening divergence between the security interests and preferences for Southeast Asian countries (for American strategic pre-eminence) versus forced reliance on China as the economic driver of growth. Yet, despite its economic size and assumed importance, Beijing has not been able to alter the strategic alignment of even one significant power in Southeast Asia. In fact, every significant trading power in the region has moved closer to America in strategic and military terms even as their trading relationships continue to deepen with China.
The article seeks to offer some explanation for China’s incapacity to translate its supposed economic clout and importance into strategic leverage at America’s expense. Analysis of the economic relationship between China and key Southeast Asian countries reveals that these economic partners are not as dependent on the Chinese economy as rising trade numbers suggest. Indeed, one should not overestimate the role of China in driving prosperity in the region, or assume that China has emerged as the primary driver of prosperity in the region. In reality, advanced economies and firms from those economies such as America’s remain far more important to major Southeast Asian countries than does the Chinese economy and Chinese firms. Such a situation is likely to persist into the foreseeable future, meaning that America’s economic capacity to seduce Southeast Asian governments and firms will remain robust and possibly even decisive.
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Country or Region: China
Khoo, Nicholas, and Reuben Steff
Abstract
Although the Obama Administration has differed from its predecessor in a number of respects, on the specific issue of Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), there is a striking continuity. The Obama Administration has remained committed to the BMD project, even as it has modified the schedule of deployments and prioritized different systems from the Bush Administration. Significantly, this has led to Chinese and Russian balancing in the nuclear sphere. As a result, there is evidence of a security dilemma-type dynamics in US relations with China and Russia. At present, there is no study that analyzes Russian and Chinese hard internal balancing against the USA in the sphere of missile defense during the Obama Administration. This article fills this gap.
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Horesh,, Niv, and Emilian Kavalski
Summary
At the end of the Cold War, commentators were pondering how far Western ideas would spread in an international environment defined by ‘the end of history’. Today, the debate seems to be how far Chinese ideas will reach. This innovative edited volume goes beyond the conventional focus on China’s bilateral relations, in a bid to identify the extent to which China’s nascent rise has provoked fresh geo-strategic and intellectual shifts within Asia.
Offering a unique discussion of the evolution of Chinese schools of International Relations and the reactions of China’s Asian partners to the practices of its international interactions, the contributors to this volume seek to explain and understand the relational nature of China’s international outreach in the full spectrum of its unabridged complexity, contingency, and contradictions.
Hong, Ki-Joon
Abstract
This article explores the possibility of institutional multilateralism in Northeast Asia from the perspective of “emergent peace”. The main argument of the article is that a self-organising peace process arising from institutional multilateralism is constrained and enabled by the existing “morphogenetic fields”, the formative social spheres of collective action. Similar ideas or initiatives that are pursued by an agent/agents may result in different consequences depending on the characteristics of the morphogenetic fields. This argument is examined through two case studies. The first is Jean Monnet in Europe, who played a pivotal role in the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), and the other is Ahn Jung-geun in Northeast Asia, who proposed the detailed ideas of pan-Asianism akin to Monnet but failed to play a role as an agent. The case studies demonstrate that the feature of the morphogenetic fields is determined by the characteristics of embedded agency at a critical juncture, while the agency is bounded by the particular spatial and temporal conditions of the morphogenetic fields. In search of an emergent peace process in Northeast Asia, this article particularly highlights the Six-Party Talks, arguing that they are a by-product of, and an alternative to, the San Francisco System.
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Harris, Stuart
Summary
China’s inexorable rise as a major world power is one of the defining features of the contemporary political landscape. But should we heed the warnings of a so-called ‘China threat?’ Is China set to become the next superpower? Or will its ambitions be tempered by economic and political realities both at home and abroad?
In this insightful and balanced analysis, noted China expert Stuart Harris explores China’s present foreign policy and its motivations, focusing in particular on the extent to which China will co-operate with the West in years to come. He considers what factors, international or domestic, will influence the foreign policies being shaped in Beijing, including how far the Chinese regime will adhere to existing global norms and the evolving international system. In contemplating this uncertain future, Harris assesses the considerable challenges and vulnerabilities likely to impact on Chinese foreign policy, leading it to be cautious and hesitant or assertive and aggressive on the international stage. Concise and authoritative, this book will be essential reading for anyone seeking a clearer understanding of the international relations of one of the world’s most important powers.
Hameiri, Shahar
Abstract
In recent years, a perception has emerged among many policymakers and commentators that the deepening of the People’s Republic of China engagement in the Pacific Islands Region, predominantly through its expanding foreign aid programme, threatens to undermine the existing regional order, in which Australia is dominant. In this article, it is argued that China’s apparent ‘charm offensive’ in the Pacific is mainly driven by commercial, not political, imperatives and is far more fragmented and incoherent than is often assumed. Hence, its (real) political effects hinge, not on any Chinese strategic designs for regional domination, or even a more limited resource security agenda, but on the intent and capacity of Pacific governments to harness deepening aid, investment and trade relations with China towards their own foreign and domestic policy objectives, which include limiting Australian interference in the internal governance processes of Pacific states. This argument is demonstrated by the case of Fiji after the December 2006 military coup.
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Fiori, Antonio, and Andrea Passeri
Abstract
The American ‘return’ to East Asia is currently characterized by a particularly high degree of competition with Beijing among the small and medium powers of Southeast Asia, where the recent Chinese ‘charm offensive’ achieved its most significant outcomes.
This article, hence, aims to explore the nature and patters of this ongoing process of strategic repositioning put into practice by Myanmar within the political triangle with Washington and Beijing. Against this backdrop, we will draw upon the conceptualization of ‘hedging strategy’, which identifies a set of multidimensional ‘insurance policies’ adopted by small actors in their relations vis-à-vis great powers.
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Etzioni, Amitai
Abstract
A combination of threat analysis and “subterranean forces” (such as proclivities to fight conventional wars as compared to asymmetric ones) leads the USA to prefer focusing on the threats from China rather than those emanating from the Middle East.
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Dittmer, Lowell, and Mikael Weissmann
Abstract
China’s Maritime Periphery or “Near Seas”—the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea—are waters through which a great deal of vital commerce flows, as China, Japan, Korea, and numerous Southeast Asian countries are all major trading nations that import the energy and raw materials that sustain their thriving economies. Since 2009 the East and South China Seas have become increasingly fraught with tension. This has generally been attributed to rising Chinese assertiveness, but not because China has started making a lot of assertions it never made before. As the authors assembled here point out in replete detail, China’s explicit claims to the Diaoyu/Senkaku islets in the East China Sea date back at least to 1971, while it can trace its claim in the South China Sea back to the publication of the famous ‘‘nine-dashed line’’ map by the Nationalists in 1947 (at the time it contained eleven segmented lines; the victorious Communists subsequently dropped two). What has changed since 2009 is China’s more rigorous enforcement of existing claims. This too is brought out in the articles collected below: its actors have seized islands well within the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of neighboring Southeast Asian nations, detained fishing boats and confiscated their catch, cut the cables of ships engaged in oil exploration, harassed American surveillance vessels, and most recently undertaken ‘‘reclamation’’ of subsurface islets in order to construct airstrips and harbors.
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Chan, Steve, and Richard W. Hu
Abstract
Despite earlier premonitions that East Asia might be ‘ripe for rivalry’, interstate relations in this region have generally become less tense in recent years. Naturally, this observation does not deny the existence of ongoing tension, such as pertaining to maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas. However, compared to those bygone years when East Asian states were fighting major wars and lined up in opposing camps, today’s regional interactions are much calmer and multifaceted. This essay assesses these changing relations in the context of the literature on enduring rivalries and evolving Sino-American relations. It argues East Asian enduring rivalries, whether sustained, escalated or terminated, are nested in a larger contest for influence involving major powers. Washington’s involvement plays a pivotal role affecting the trajectory and prospects for enduring rivalries in East Asia.
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Blank, Stephen
Abstract
Asia, where nuclear powers already interact (including North Korea), exerts a growing influence on the thinking and policy underlying Russia’s current and future nuclear (and overall defense) posture. China’s rise is forcing Russia into a greater reliance on strategic offensive weapons and tactical nuclear weapons. These in turn will reinforce its opposition to US missile defenses, not only in Europe but also in Asia. Russia must now entertain the possibility of nuclear use in regional conflicts that would otherwise remain purely conventional. It cannot be postulated blindly that nuclear weapons serve no discernible purpose other than to deter nuclear attacks by other nuclear powers. The strategic equation in Asia and in the Russian Far East convincingly demonstrates the falsity of this approach. Nuclear weapons will be the essential component of Russia’s regional defense policy if not of its overall policies – and this also includes contingencies in Europe.
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Amer, Ramses
Abstract
The study analyzes disputes and dispute management in the South China Sea. The progress made is outlined through an overview and analysis of formally settled disputes. The unsettled disputes are identified, analyzed, and assessed. The study concludes with a broader assessment from the perspective of dispute management.
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Yoshihara, Toshi, and James R. Holmes, eds
Summary
Asia is headed toward an uncertain and potentially volatile future in the maritime arena. The two rising Asian powers, China and India, dependent as they are on seaborne commerce for their economic well-being, have clearly set their eyes on the high seas. Yoshihara and Holmes offer a stark warning that many strategists in Beijing and New Delhi appear spellbound by the more militant visions of sea power. Indeed, both powers appear poised to develop the capacity to control the sea lanes through which the bulk of their commerce flows. If they enter the nautical environment with such a martial mindset, Asia could very well fall victim to regional rivalries that give rise to a vicious cycle of competition.
Yoshihara and Holmes provide the first examination of the simultaneous rise of two naval powers and the potential impact that such an oceanic reconfiguration of power in Asia could have on long-term regional stability. Their study analyzes the maritime interests and strategies of the littoral states in Asia as they prepare for the expected reordering of nautical affairs. This long-overdue assessment revisits underlying assumptions that have prevailed among strategy-makers and provides a concrete policy framework for reducing the risk of confrontation in Asian waters.
Walter, Carl, and Fraser Howie
Summary
The truth behind the rise of China and whether or not it will be able to maintain it.
How did China transform itself so quickly? In Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise, Revised Edition Carl Walter and Fraser Howie go deep inside the Chinese financial machine to illuminate the social and political consequences of the unique business model that propelled China to economic powerhouse status, and question whether this rapid ascension really lives up to its reputation.
All eyes are on China, but will it really surpass the U.S. as the world’s premier global economy? Walter and Howie aren’t so certain, and in this revised and updated edition of Red Capitalism they examine whether or not the 21st century really will belong to China.
– The specter of a powerful China is haunting the U.S. and other countries suffering from economic decline and this book explores China’s next move
– Packed with new statistics and stories based on recent developments, this new edition updates the outlook on China’s future with the most cutting-edge information available
– Find out how China financed its current position of strength and whether it will be able to maintain its astonishing momentum
Indispensable reading for anyone looking to understand the limits that China’s past development decisions have imposed on its brilliant future, Red Capitalism is an essential resource for anyone considering China’s business strategies in today’s extremely challenging global economy.
Walter, Andrew, and Xiaoke Zhang
Summary
The increasing economic and political importance of East Asia in the global political economy requires a deeper analysis of the nature of the capitalist systems in this region than has been provided by the existing literature on comparative capitalisms. This volume brings together conceptual and empirical analyses of the evolving patterns of East Asian capitalism against the backdrop of regional and global market integration and periodic economic crises since the 1980s. Focusing on China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand, it provides an interdisciplinary account of variations, continuities, and changes in the institutional structures that govern financial systems, industrial relations, and product markets, and that shape the evolution of national political economies.
While the volume encompasses a range of different cases, specific issues, and diverse methodologies, all the chapters address two dominant themes – the continuities and changes in the institutional underpinnings of capitalist development and the main driving forces behind them. The book thus provides an integrated analysis of how changing institutional practices in business, financial, and labour systems interact and affect the evolution of capitalist political economies in the region.
