Smith, Paul J

Abstract
In fact, the senkaku/diaoyu Island issue has been a persistent and caustic irritant in relations between Japan and the People’s republic of China, particularly since the early 1970s, when “administrative rights” over the islands were transferred from the United states to Japan (as part of the larger “reversion” treaty of 1971 for the return of Okinawa and the Ryukyuan Islands). More recently, the is- lands have been assuming greater significance as Japan and the People’s republic of China undergo a gradual yet inexorable power shift, in which China’s political and military ascendancy is juxtaposed with Japan’s relative and protracted economic and demographic decline. Moreover, the islands’ geographic location in the East China Sea, which is increasingly a contested space between Tokyo and Beijing, places the controversy in a larger and more dangerous strategic context. Added to this is the role of the United states, the third major actor in an increasingly complex geopolitical puzzle. Washington’s standing as the defender of Japan’s administrative rights over the islands—notwithstanding US. declarations of neutrality on the question of sovereignty—places the dispute at the heart of Sino-American competition, which in turn has been exacerbated by recent military strengthening, rebalancing, and posturing on both sides. Overall, a confluence of economic, military, and geopolitical factors suggests that the senkaku/diaoyu issue will increasingly define and shape the geopolitical environment in East Asia—to include the possibility of major-power war—for the foreseeable future.
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