Mière, Christian Le

Abstract
Japan’s new National Defense Program Guidelines, issued in December 2013 alongside the country’s first-ever National Security Strategy, highlighted the danger of a destabilising arms race in Asia as Tokyo seeks to expand its defence budget and purchase new equipment. Coming just before the arrival of the first of six Kilo-class submarines to Vietnam in January, these initiatives suggest that there may be a region-wide, competitive military-procurement response to China’s rise.
The question of whether we are entering a period of arms races and security dilemmas rests largely on the perceptions, fears and intent of actors within the region. But this is in turn contingent upon the types of platforms and weapons being bought by Asian countries. With the various maritime disputes in the South and East China seas persisting, and the power dynamics of the region rapidly changing amid robust economic growth, many East Asian nations are acquiring platforms and weapons of a certain type to counter the perceived growing hegemony of China, as well as maintain defence-procurement rivalries with their neighbours. Beijing, meanwhile, has developed a formidable capability to deter and potentially defeat any intervention by US forces in its near abroad. Both China and its neighbours have invested heavily in what might be called anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities.
These are largely defensive systems characterised by denial rather than control. Hence, they may not automatically be perceived as fuelling a security dilemma. The procurement of A2/AD capabilities by China is, however, encouraging a response in the United States through the development of the Joint Operational Access Concept and the Air-Sea Battle concept, introducing a new layer of military competition and action–reaction dynamics to the region. Equally, other states’ A2/AD procurement is occurring just as China is developing wider, full-spectrum capabilities more tailored to sea control and power projection that could overcome A2/AD capabilities with greater ease and in turn encourage further procurement.
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