Lee, Sheryn, and Benjamin Schreer

Abstract
In recent years tensions across the Taiwan Strait have been overshadowed by fear of war on the Korean Peninsula. Commentators have even suggested that Taiwan’s strategic relations with China have improved to the point of opening avenues for a peaceful settlement and US disengagement. This would remove a potential trigger for US–China military confrontation and could greatly improve the relationship between these two major powers.
But this view is overly optimistic. The situation in the Taiwan Strait is far from stable and might deteriorate rather than improve over the next few years. Three factors account for this danger: the changing military balance between the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Republic of China’s (ROC) Armed Forces; increased concerns in Taiwan about US security guarantees; and Taiwan’s growing importance in the strategic competition between the United States and China.
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