Kim, Taeho

Abstract
In light of the extensive ties between Beijing and Seoul—now termed as a “strategic cooperative partnership”—as well as of the growing importance of China on peninsular and regional affairs, how would the China factor play out in South Korea’s future security environment and in the evolving U.S.-South Korean relationship? This essay attempts to shed some light on these complex yet consequential aspects of their bilateral ties. It argues that a) China’s stakes on peninsular stability are largely based on security and economic interests; b) notwithstanding their extensive and growing ties, there are a host of potentially conflictual issues that have been under-researched and under-reported; c) South Korea needs to prioritize its ties with the U.S. and with China, even if it decides to maintain a close relationship with China; and d) China will become a source for both despair and hope in realizing South Korea’s national objectives. In the mid to longer term, it is entirely possible that South Korea’s political divergence with China on specific and concrete issues would affect the erstwhile discrete interactions with China in other dimensions. One cost-effective way of coping with this future uncertainty is to maintain exchanges and cooperation with China in select areas, while anticipating and preparing for any reversal of its present course toward the Korean Peninsula.
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