Johnson, Stuart E., and Duncan Long, eds

Summary
Of particular concern in a Taiwan scenario is China’s growing ability to track, target, and destroy U.S. carrier strike groups (CSGs), which are the fulcrum of American military strategy in the region. The Defense Department reports that the PLA is focused on targeting surface ships at long ranges, perhaps as far as the “second island chain,” east of Japan and as far south as Guam.3 China is amassing the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and strike assets needed to conduct long-range precision attacks. These growing capabilities are coupled with PLA doctrine that emphasizes preemption and surprise attack;4 the potential significance of this turn of thought was underscored by China’s January 2007 demonstration of an antisatellite weapon. China’s growing capabilities demand that the United States carefully review the evolving military balance in the western Pacific and consider the implications for future strategy.
Each essay addresses a key part of the Taiwan intervention puzzle. The compilation moves from an overview of U.S. strength and China’s growing military abilities (Gompert); to two pieces on China’s present and future military technology (Cheung) and personnel (Lo) resources; to an examination of a particular threat to U.S. regional power, China’s improving ISR capabilities (Mulvenon); to a review of U.S. maritime (McDevitt) and aerial (Shlapak) strengths and vulnerabilities; to a piece on how some aerial vulnerabilities could be allayed with UAVs (Libicki); to an analysis of U.S. options to better deter Chinese aggression (Gompert and Long); to a forward-looking article on how a new U.S. fleet architecture could change the balance of power in a Taiwan Strait conflict (Johnson).
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