Jho, Whasun, and Soo A Chae

Abstract
Although the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) has made significant progress providing confidence-building mechanisms, it remains inconsistent in moving towards a shared goal of collective defense arrangements and this raises the issue of the ARF’s overall efficacy in the region. This article analyzes the reasons for the inconsistent efficacy of the ARF in improving territorial conflicts. Based upon realists’ insights, this article analyzes how the role of the ARF in resolving the South China Sea disputes has changed periodically based on participation of the United States and China, which have exercised their expansionary or conservative interest goals in the region. This article pays close attention to the way in which the respective national interests of the United States and China have changed chronologically and how these adopted strategies have affected their rival’s participation strategies and the ARF’s role. This article argues that the ARF’s ability to resolve problems has fluctuated noticeably according to the changes in the nature and level of powerful states’ hegemonic interests.
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