Council on Foreign Relations

Abstract
The rise of China has long been a growing concern among U.S. foreign policymakers. Of particular concern is the strength of Chinese military power and its relation to U.S. military capability. This important report assesses the situation and concludes that China is at least two decades behind the United States in terms of military technology and capability. If the United States continues to dedicate significant resources to improving its own military forces, as expected, the balance between the United States and China, both globally and in Asia, is likely to remain decisively in America’s favor beyond the next twenty years.
If current trends continue (for example, if Japan continues to eschew a role as a major regional military power), China will become the predominant military power in East Asia, the Task Force report concludes. China’s current force structure provides effective defense against any effort to invade and seize Chinese territory. The Task Force notes, however, that while China will have the enduring advantage of proximity to Asia, the United States traditionally has the edge in maritime, aerospace, and technological dimensions of military power. As a result, an ongoing and robust U.S. naval and air presence can offset Bejiing’s capacity to leverage future military capabilities into advantage against U.S. and allied interests in the Asia-Pacific region over the next twenty years, if not longer.
The one area of near-term concern, the report concludes, is in the Taiwan Strait. Here, China is more likely to use new technologies and asymmetric strategies—not to invade Taiwan outright but to achieve political goals such as forcing the resumption of political dialogue between the two sides on the mainland’s terms. Going forward, the rise of China will continue to be a cause for concern among U.S. policymakers.
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