Ayson, Robert, and Desmond Ball

Abstract
It has been decades since the last war between major powers in Asia, but there is no guarantee that the region will always be able to avoid conflict. The greatest strain on the peace is in North Asia, where there has been rising tension between China and Japan. What begins as a minor skirmish between China and Japan could conceivably escalate into a more serious conflict that involved the United States and, in the worst case, the use of nuclear weapons by Beijing and Washington. Even a major conventional conflict (between just Japan and China, or involving all three) could be devastating for North Asia and the wider region, leading to a significant loss of life and widespread political, institutional and economic damage.
This article considers whether an initially limited outbreak of armed conflict between Japan and China could be controlled, or whether the incentives to escalate would become irresistible. Is there, moreover, any real possibility that the US would stay on the sidelines of such a war, given its close connections with Japan and perceptions of China? And would the prospect of America’s participation in an escalating conflict encourage Sino-Japanese restraint or precipitate more aggressive behaviour?
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