Nagy, Stephen R.

Publication Year: 2022

US-China Strategic Competition and Converging Middle Power Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

DOI: 10.1080/09700161.2022.2088126

Abstract: The 21st century’s central economic nexus will be centred on the Indo-Pacific region. Simultaneously, the intensifying US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific is deepening. Regional middle powers must negotiate this competition to ensure their interests remain intact. This article applies a realist framework to analyse the strategic alignment of Australia, Japan, and India in response to the great power competition. It examines the strategy each middle power is pursuing to protect their interests and the motivations behind their approaches. It finds a convergence in middle power interests centred on maritime behaviour, adherence to international law, and investment in regional institutions.

Bradley, Jennifer

Publication Year: 2022

Tailored engagement: Assessing Japan’s strategic culture and its impact on U.S. – China competition

DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2022.2087434

Abstract: The concept of “Strategic Culture” has enjoyed a resurgence in the last two decades as a method for understanding the behavior and decision making of potential adversaries. Strategic culture assessment methodologies offer a way to examine the policy choices of states, while accounting for ethnocentric biases. While these assessments have been used widely for analyzing adversaries, they are underutilized in assessing allies. The emergence of great power competition between the U.S. and China will increase pressure on the U.S.-Japan alliance. Increasing the understanding of Japan’s strategic culture will provide the United States insight into ways to engage with Japan to make strategies to compete with China more effective.

Strating, Rebecca, Douglas Guilfoyle, Steven Ratuva and Joanne Wallis

Publication Year: 2022

Commentary: China in the Maritime Pacific

DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2022.105092

Abstract: The Indo-Pacific region faces complex and destabilising maritime security challenges. There are concerns that China’s militarisation of the South China Sea may migrate to other domains, including the Pacific Islands. Yet there is little critical or scholarly analysis of China’s maritime strategy, tactics, and approaches in the South-West Pacific and its implications to the island nations that inhabit that geographic area. This commentary proposes a new research agenda focused on the following question: how has China used ‘maritime geo-economic’ statecraft in the Pacific and how have Pacific Island states responded? This research agenda should consider key elements of China’s maritime geo-economic engagement in the Pacific, the risks of this engagement to Pacific Island states’ economic sovereignty in the maritime domain, and how they have sought to exert agency and seek to protect and preserve their maritime entitlements.

John, Jojin

Publication Year: 2022

Republic of Korea, Indo-Pacific and the Emerging Regional Order: Engaging without Endorsing

DOI: 10.1080/09700161.2022.2074774

Abstract: Despite being a key stakeholder in the emerging regional order, South Korea’s approach to the Indo-Pacific has been a policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’. It entails a cautious engagement with Indo-Pacific initiatives of different countries under the ambit of ‘New Southern Policy’ without endorsing the concept or articulating the Korean position on the Indo-Pacific regional construct. Explaining the Korea’s strategic outlook, this article argues that its ambiguous approach to the Indo-Pacific’ is determined by the prioritization of maintaining a ‘balanced diplomacy’ in its relations with the US and China in a context of intensified strategic competition between the two.

Kim, Eric, Hazumu Yano, Hans-Dieter Lucas and Jeffrey Reynolds

Publication Year: 2022

NATO’s position and role in the Indo-Pacific

DOI: 10.1080/14702436.2022.2082956

Abstract: NATO can ill-afford to dismiss the security and military implications of China’s increased presence and its relationship with Russia throughout the Euro-Atlantic area and along its periphery. The Alliance’s strategic calculus must include China across all relevant sectors including: security, economics, technology, and elite capture. The strategic concept should acknowledge that the Alliance needs to improve its awareness of China – starting with the psychology of the leadership in Zhongnanhai. There is no uniform vision amongst Chinese leaders vis-à-vis world order but four theories can be used to foster awareness: (1) moral realism, (2) relationalism, (3) symbiotic theory, and (4) Tianxiaism. Understanding the theoretical underpinnings of Chinese worldviews can help leaders of the Alliance mitigate strategic risk throughout the North Atlantic Area. Another way for NATO to reduce risk is to engage other nations in the Indo-Pacific region. The strategic concept should present a realistic approach to partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region that raise awareness, understanding, and trust with the Alliance. The new Strategic Concept should outline how NATO must do work “under-the-hood” to ensure it has a complete picture of China’s influence throughout the Euro-Atlantic area, starting with the creation of a NATO-China Council.

Oswald, Omar Ramon Serrano and Jappe Eckhardt

Publication Year: 2022

New champions of preferential trade? Two-level games in China’s and India’s shifting commercial strategies

DOI: 10.1080/09692290.2022.2060278

Abstract: Following decades of relative isolation, China and India have become the world’s largest new traders. In this paper, we focus on their Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). While the two economies initially followed similar paths, with a growing number of PTAs signed in the first decade of the 21st Century, since 2011 India has taken a U-turn and stopped completing them. China, on the other hand, has widened and deepened its trade agreements. We present a novel theoretical framework to analyze international economic negotiations by emerging economies and use it to study the puzzling divergence of the trade policies of China and India. By adapting the two-level game framework to emerging economies, we argue that there are key differences in the political economies of countries like China and India (compared to Western industrialized ones), which requires a more specific focus on the domestic side of the two-level game. We show that accounting for non-legislative domestic ratification processes and for iterative games and experiential learning by domestic actors are crucial in understanding the trade strategies of emerging economies. While much of the literature explains large emerging economies by looking at external systemic factors, we instead suggest that their domestic politics trumps international politics.

Nishino, Junya

Publication Year: 2022

South Korea’s Diplomacy in an Era of US-China Strategic Competition

DOI: 10.1080/13439006.2022.2030537

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to examine the Republic of Korea’s (ROK, South Korea hereafter) diplomacy mainly during the Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in administrations, focusing on its efforts to develop a “strategic cooperative partnership” with China while emphasizing its alliance with the US amid the intensifying strategic competition between the US and China.

Kitaoka, Shinichi

Publication Year: 2022

A Proposal for a Western Pacific Union (WPU)

DOI: 10.1080/13439006.2022.2026642

Abstract: The concept of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) is taking firm hold as a new core vision of Japan’s foreign policy. It has been endorsed at the US-Japan and Group of Seven (G7) summits.

So far, however, there has not been sufficient discussion about specific approaches to promote it. In particular, the discussion on Southeast Asia, the region where the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean meet, has been insufficient. Should Southeast Asia come under the influence of China, the significance of FOIP would be halved.

This article proposes the establishment of a Western Pacific Union (WPU) at the heart of FOIP as a loose regional association by grouping the Western Pacific countries including Japan, major Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam), Australia and Pacific Island Countries. The proposed WPU aims to contribute to the regional and world’s peace and prosperity, while not confronting China, by upholding the principles of freedom, democracy, and the rule of law.

Mori, Satoru

Publication Year: 2022

The Biden Administration’s First Year in the Indo-Pacific: Balancing, Order-Building and Managing Competition with China

DOI: 10.1080/13439006.2022.2026635

Abstract: The Biden administration’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific is driven by three major endeavors: balancing, order-building, and management of competition with China. The US is currently enhancing its balancing act by leveraging its alliance with Australia epitomized by AUKUS and the Enhanced Force Posture Cooperation launched by AUSMIN. Order-building advanced by the Quad is promoting three functions: regional public goods provision, mutual resilience enhancement, and standard-setting for critical and emerging technologies. The Biden administration is attempting to pursue “responsible competition” with China, but its ultimate goals remain undefined. Based on these observations, the article will conclude by pointing out major tasks that lie ahead for the Biden administration in these areas.

Jha, Pankaj K. and Quach Thi Hue

Publication Year: 2022

India’s maritime diplomacy in Southeast Asia: Exploring synergies

DOI: 10.1080/09733159.2021.2018827

Abstract: India–Southeast Asia defence cooperation has not been highlighted much, primarily to not give out wrong signals about India’s power projection outlook. With India steadfastly maintaining that it is a benign nation and not a revisionist power, engagement in the defence domain with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been attempted in five ways. The first includes India’s engagement in ASEAN defence mechanisms, such as ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) Plus; and the participation of ASEAN nations in the Milan series of biennial meetings and Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). The second dimension is India’s legitimate interest in the security of the Malacca Strait as a funnel state. The third dimension is developing synergies between the defence industries in Southeast Asia with the Indian defence industrial complex. The fourth angle of engagement is India’s position as the net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The fifth critical aspect is developing maritime cooperative mechanism and developing a counter to the Chinese “string of pearls” strategy.

Kaura, Vinay and Garima Kumawat

Publication Year: 2022

Managing China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific: Japan’s strategic engagement with India

DOI: 10.1080/09733159.2021.2015135

Abstract: The article explains how Japan’s strategic interests are converging with India against an assertive China in the Indo-Pacific. Japan has been pursuing a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) policy, which seeks to manage China’s rise by deepening Japan’s strategic coordination and cooperation with its closest partners through the Quad. Though Japan still values its bilateral relationship with the United States (US), its security partnership with India is part of Tokyo’s persistent efforts to support the US-led rules-based international order. In order to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan has been a strong supporter among the Quad to promote non-military cooperation, primarily focusing on infrastructure building, supply chain resilience and technological innovations. The article argues that Japan’s strategic engagement with India is now an integral part of its wider national security posture as Tokyo has come to recognise New Delhi as an important balancer against Beijing. That the US has enhanced its ties with India in recent years has further facilitated Japan–India strategic convergence since it is aligned with American policy towards the Indo-Pacific region in an era of great power competition.

Wilkins, Thomas

Publication Year: 2021

Middle power hedging in the era of security/economic disconnect: Australia, Japan, and the ‘Special Strategic Partnership’

DOI: 10.1093/irap/lcab023

Abstract: Deepening superpower rivalry between the United States and China has created acute strategic dilemmas for secondary powers in the Indo-Pacific such as Australia and Japan. This predicament is exacerbated by their divergent security and economic interests which cut across the superpower divide; a condition dubbed a ‘security/economic disconnect’. These two intimately related dynamics preclude clear-cut implementation of conventional balancing/bandwagoning alignment choices and have led to mixed hedging strategies to cope with this situation. To address these issues, the article presents a refinement of the hedging concept in International Relations (IR) that emphasizes its multi-dimensional nature, within a broader interpretation of alignment itself. It applies this to the case of the Australia and Japan with reference to their Strategic Partnership, which is both emblematic of hedging responses to systemic uncertainty, and an institutional mechanism through which to operationalize joint hedging policies. This provides insights into how middle power strategic partnerships are managing strategic risks across the security, economic, and other, domains.

Zhang, Jue and Jin

Publication Year: 2021

China–US Strategic Competition and the Descent of a Porous Curtain

DOI: 10.1093/cjip/poab008

Abstract: Since the onset of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic, Sino–US strategic rivalry has dramatically heightened to a pitch where there is a mounting discussion over whether or not China and the United States have embarked on a “new Cold War.” There are three main views in this regard. The first is that China and the United States have indeed entered a new Cold War; the second is that China and the United States are heading for a new Cold War; and the third is that China and the United States will not descend into a new Cold War. Different views reflect different scholarly understandings of the essential properties of the Cold War concept. Fundamentally, the two core features of the Cold War were ideological confrontation and proxy war. Considering that current US–China strategic competition is in the technological rather than ideological domain, and that neither side has instigated any proxy war; however, the phrase “new Cold War” is inappropriate; that of “Porous Curtain” is more apt. The ever-narrowing power gap between China and the United States has undoubtedly prompted the US government’s adoption of a policy of blockade and containment to curb China’s rising power. However, the deep integration of the international system and historical inertia of US–China interaction preclude the US’s complete isolation from China. This has resulted in bilateral relations of a more porous nature. Although the future may not be promising, competition does not necessarily lead to conflict. For this reason, managing the bilateral competitive relationship and striving towards coexistence under competition should be the key task of both countries.

Zhao, Suisheng

Publication Year: 2021

The US–China Rivalry in the Emerging Bipolar World: Hostility, Alignment, and Power Balance

DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2021.1945733

Abstract: This article argues that although the US–China rivalry has not presented with some essential elements of the US–Soviet Cold War, the emerging bipolarity has led to misplaced ideological hostility and repeated failling attempts of building alliance systems. Delicate power balance between the two countries has further complicated the rivalry by giving each side the false conviction to prevail.

Lobo, J. Susanna

Publication Year: 2021

Balancing China: Indo-US relations and convergence of their interests in the Indo-Pacific

DOI: 10.1080/09733159.2021.1952618

Abstract: The Indo-Pacific has emerged as an important region in international politics where the major powers are deeply engaged in reshaping the security architecture. Over the last few years, India and China have drawn their policies by employing competitive strategies that strengthen as well as neutralise their respective power positions in the Indian Ocean Region, particularly in South Asia and the South China Sea. China’s “String of Pearls” strategy and the “Belt and Road Initiative” undermine India’s influence in the Indian Ocean Region, where the changing geo-economic and geostrategic imperatives pose threat to its interests. This mounts pressure on New Delhi to respond by pursuing counter-strategies to secure its interests in the Indo-Pacific region. The article further explains how India and the United States’ interests are converging against an assertive China in the Indo-Pacific and how the two states’ security and maritime collaborations are balancing their common rival by maintaining a favourable status quo in the region.