Stashwick, Steven

Publication Year: 2018

“Getting Serious about Strategy in the South China Sea”: What Analysis Is Required to Compel a New U.S. Strategy in the South China Sea?

Abstract: China’s extensive island-building projects in the Spratly Islands, the aggressive harassment tactics of its maritime law-enforcement and paramilitary fleets, and its rejection of binding arbitration rulings on both those activities threaten the rules-based international order and pose political, economic, and potentially military threats to U.S. interests in the region. 

Kaura, Vinay

Abstract: China’s unprecedented economic rise and its growing military profile have transformed the threat matrix for India. China is challenging India’s interests in its immediate neighbourhood in multiple ways. Managing strategic challenge from China, therefore, has become a topmost foreign policy priority for India. The article argues that given the structural constraints of New Delhi-Beijing rapprochement, there is an urgent need for India to step up quadrilateral security cooperation with the U.S., Japan and Australia. The revival of the Quad reflects this growing consensus. However, India’s hedging approach – simultaneously balancing and engaging with China – may be politically expedient in the short run, but not without long-term adverse consequences. Full text available here. 

Rai, Ashok

Abstract: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD, hereinafter referred to as Quad), which had come into existence in 2007, ceased following the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the withdrawal of Australia during Kevin Rudd’s tenure as Prime Minister. However, on the side lines of the 2017 ASEAN Summit, the subject of a structure that would facilitate peace, stability and development in the Indo-Pacific region which, is supposedly under threat due to China’s assertive behaviour, came up for discussions once again between leaders of US, Japan, Australia and India. The revival of the Quad (colloquially termed as “Quad 2.0”), after a hiatus of nearly a decade was viewed with concern by the Chinese media, which termed the grouping as a possible first step towards the formation of an “Asian NATO”. The Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, however was more dismissive, comparing the idea of reviving the Quad to “foam in the ocean, destined to dissipate soon”. Against the backdrop of a globalised and intertwined economy, where economic interdependence appears to be the norm in deciding national interests, this paper examines the likely future trajectory of this grouping and attempts to determine which of the two assessments is more plausible. Full text available here

Mishra, Vivek

Abstract: India and the US have crossed the proverbial Rubicon in their bilateral ties, with maritime cooperation being the mainstay. The US-India navy-to-navy cooperation has emerged as the “best performing area of bilateral relationship”. The maritime domain including the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific area has emerged as the domain for the identification of commonly perceptible threats and goals in the larger Asian maritime expanse. A series of developments, agreements and understandings has gradually been cementing the rubric of US-India maritime cooperation. This paper proposes to justify the hypothesis that maritime cooperation between the US and India is one of the primary mainstays of their bilateral cooperation, and that the proposition will only get stronger going forward. By analysing various steps in maritime cooperation between the two countries, the paper seeks to highlight the rationales for such cooperation; growing Chinese presence in the region, non-traditional threats, HA/DR cooperation, domain awareness, reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, regional stability, and balance of power. Full text available here

Mendenhall, Elizabeth

Abstract: This commentary describes an opportunity for clarification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) ‘regime of islands.’ It describes the growing need to authoritatively distinguish between islands, rocks, and artificial islands for the purpose of stabilizing claims to maritime territory. Sea level rise and island building activities in the South China Sea and elsewhere are increasing the pace at which new islands appear and existing islands disappear. This commentary proposes a two-part interpretation of UNCLOS, which (1) freezes the status of islands and rocks, and (2) asserts a practical distinction between ‘islands’ and ‘artificial islands.’ The United States is identified as a possible actor to forward this interpretation, and the benefits for that country and the international community as a whole are reviewed. Full text available here.

Cong, Kangyin, Renjin Sun, Jin Wu, and Gal Hochman

Abstract:  This paper compares growth and development of natural gas markets in the United States and in China between 2000 and 2015. The results demonstrate that, for both countries, the level of development of the natural gas supply chain improved over time, although in recent years, growth in these markets has slowed down. The analysis also shows that while the focus in terms of development and growth for China is the downstream natural gas market, it is the upstream markets for the United States. The paper’s analysis suggests that for China to improve growth and development of its natural gas industry, the country’s policy should incentivize the development of production and transportation; the US, on the other hand, should allocate resources to the development of its pipeline distribution system. Full text available here

Yeo, Andrew

Description: During the Cold War, the U.S. built a series of alliances with Asian nations to erect a bulwark against the spread of communism and provide security to the region. Despite pressure to end bilateral alliances in the post-Cold War world, they persist to this day, even as new multilateral institutions have sprung up around them. The resulting architecture may aggravate rivalries as the U.S., China, and others compete for influence. However, Andrew Yeo demonstrates how Asia’s complex array of bilateral and multilateral agreements may ultimately bring greater stability and order to a region fraught with underlying tensions.
Asia’s Regional Architecture transcends traditional international relations models. It investigates change and continuity in Asia through the lens of historical institutionalism. Refuting claims regarding the demise of the liberal international order, Yeo reveals how overlapping institutions can promote regional governance and reduce uncertainty in a global context. In addition to considering established institutions such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, he discusses newer regional arrangements including the East Asia Summit, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the Belt and Road Initiative. This book has important implications for how policymakers think about institutional design and regionalism in Asia and beyond.

Smith, Jeff M., ed.

Description: In recent years the narrative surrounding China’s “peaceful rise” has given way to a more ominous story of friction, ambition, and great-power rivalry. As Chinese foreign policy has grown more nationalist and assertive, its intensifying competition with the U.S. has assumed center stage. The impact on China’s neighbors, by contrast, and their evolving responses, have received comparatively less attention.
The Realist theory of international relations suggests the rapid accumulation of power by one nation-state will prompt its neighbors and peers to adopt Balancing strategies. They will strive to enhance their internal defense capabilities and forge new external security partnerships to hedge against this potential new threat. Have these predictions rung true? Are key Indo-Pacific capitals Balancing, and drawing closer to the U.S. as insurance against Chinese aggression? Or is China a new breed of rising power, challenging traditional theories of international relations in a newly-globalized, economically interdependent world?

Description: In the sphere of future global politics, no region will be as hotly contested as the Asia-Pacific, where great power interests collide amid the mistrust of unresolved conflicts and disputed territory. This is where authoritarian China is trying to rewrite international law and challenge the democratic values of the United States and its allies. The lightning rods of conflict are remote reefs and islands from which China has created military bases in the 1.5-million-square-mile expanse of the South China Sea, a crucial world trading route that this rising world power now claims as its own. No other Asian country can take on China alone. They look for protection from the United States, although it, too, may be ill-equipped for the job at hand. If China does get away with seizing and militarizing waters here, what will it do elsewhere in the world, and who will be able to stop it? In Asian Waters, award-winning foreign correspondent Humphrey Hawksley breaks down the politics—and tensions—that he has followed through this region for years. Reporting on decades of political developments, he has witnessed China’s rise to become one of the world’s most wealthy and militarized countries, and delivers in Asian Waters the compelling narrative of this most volatile region. Can the United States and China handle the changing balance of power peacefully? Do Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan share enough common purpose to create a NATO-esque multilateral alliance? Does China think it can even become a superpower while making an enemy of America? If so, how does it plan to achieve it? Asian Waters delves into these topics and more as Hawksley presents the most comprehensive and accessible analysis ever of this region.

Harding, Brian

Abstract: After nearly two years, the Trump administration’s approach to the Indo-Pacific region has finally taken shape. Its objectives are a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, in line with decades of U.S. policy in the region, but in a new context of outright strategic competition with China. Its means include familiar tools of U.S. engagement, with some modest improvements for the times. But in Donald Trump’s America, actions often do not support stated goals and, in the case of policy in the Indo-Pacific, President Trump’s personal instincts, in particular his dogmatic approach to trade, have undermined his administration’s best efforts in the region. Full text available here

Mishra, Vivek

Abstract: Donald Trump’s presidency and its consequent policies have spurred a series of geopolitical developments upending America’s core beliefs about globalization. Trump’s unilateral disruptions on various occasions, turning America’s back on globalization, have impacted the global economy, security, trade, climate, and polity in almost equal measure. However, the most severe implications of the Trumpian retreat from globalization could be for Asian security, an area where the USA has commanded a dominant influence since the end of the Second World War. Even as a transactional foreign policy approach has started to flow from Washington, Asia’s notion of collective security under the US umbrella faces an uncertain future. This process has been hastened by China’s growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific, particularly in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Full text available here

Davar, Kamal

Abstract: A nation’s strength to thwart diverse threats to its interests and adequately address the varied transformational geo-political challenges in today’s highly troubled world rests primarily on its Comprehensive National Power (CNP). The various parameters which contribute to CNP should be robust, sustainable and ever improving. Some of the constituents of CNP are a nation’s economic power, military capabilities, industrial and technological prowess, infrastructural architecture, its population and the resultant demographic dividends, educational and medical reach, societal harmony within and, more importantly, the respect its diplomacy enjoys in the comity of nations. The CNP gets enhanced from a judicious amalgam of hard and soft power leading to augmentation in its smart power. Diplomacy to further a nation’s goals is, unquestionably, a critical dynamic and, if supplemented with defence/military diplomacy, will prove vastly beneficial for a nation. Full text available here

Sun, Xihui

Abstract: In recent years, the Trump administration, embracing the principle of ‘America First’, adopts protectionism, doubts climate change and withdraws from many multilateral regimes in fields of trade, security, politics and global governance, while China firmly supports economic globalisation and free trade, adheres to peaceful development and advocates cooperation, openness, inclusiveness and mutual benefits. In these circumstances, there appears a heated debate on the shift of global leadership in academia and media, focusing on China. Beginning with summing up typical opinions about the issue of global leadership concerning the USA and China, the author conceptualises ‘global leadership’, analyses the nature and state of USA’s global leadership, discusses the Trump administration’s foreign policies and USA’s global leadership and comments China’s views and policies concerning global leadership.   This article primarily argues that leadership, unlike hegemony, is not a zero-sum relationship, and there may be more than one country harmoniously and complementarily exerting leading roles in global affairs. Only by clearly differentiating hegemony and leadership can great powers better deal with their relations. Full text available here.

Chandra, Vikash

Abstract: This article has two-fold goals: to develop a coherent concept of accommodation and explicate variable shaping the process of accommodation; and to analyse and evaluate the challenges and prospects of India’s accommodation in the emerging international order. It defines accommodation as a ‘state strategy’ and ‘process’. It figures out six determinants viz. the sphere of influence, structural variables, convergence/divergence of national interest, perception and intention towards the international order, political and socio-cultural values, and costs of non- accommodation. Instead of addressing the process of accommodation from accommodation-seekers’ perspective, the article investigates the issue from accommodators’ perspective. Therefore, rather than describing traditional foundations of India’s claim of accommodation, i.e. population, territory, military, and democracy, it illustrates conditions under which the established power accommodate rising powers. By comparing and contrasting India’s interests, principles, and values vis-à-vis the USA and China, it demonstrates how differing strategic calculations, economic and commercial interests and divergence in political socio-cultural norms and values, China is posing or may pose challenges to India’s accommodation. It suggests that India needs to strike a balance between the declining America and rising China. It will have to learn how not to turn China from an adversary to an enemy. A prudent strategy for India will be to balance China, however, in the non-military, i.e. diplomatic, political and economic realms. Nevertheless, the engagement dimension should not be marginalised, actual or even perceived. Full text available here

Behera, Laxman Kumar, and G. Balachandran

Abstract: The defence industrial cooperation is a clear missing link in an otherwise expanding strategic relationship between India and the US. The one-way defence trade is not only out of sync with India’s traditional demand for technology transfer and license production from its arms suppliers, but is also contrary to Make in India initiative of the Indian government. It is, therefore, imperative for New Delhi in particular to find an industrial solution to its increasing yet skewed defence trade relationship with Washington. Besides demanding industrial benefits from all possible defence deals with the US in the future, New Delhi has to do a few more things to deepen the industry-to-industry cooperation with the US. Among others, it has to use its defence offset policy carefully to facilitate greater military-specific technology transfers for its industry; and at the same time lay a strong foundation for a robust in-house industrial base which can receive and absorb all such transfers. Full text available here