Introduction
This essay surveys the patterns of East Asian and South Asian nuclear WMD proliferation and examines how US policy, unilaterally and in concert with other countries and organizations, has sought to influence the phenomena. Recommendations for more flexible and realistic US policies toward Asian proliferation, as part of our larger proliferation efforts, conclude the paper. We define proliferation as the intent to acquire, or the possession WMD. The original five declared nuclear weapons states—the United States, the USSR/Russia, Great Britain, France, and China—are not considered proliferators, although some activites by these countries have promoted proliferation among Third World states, for example Israel, Pakistan, and Iran.
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Country or Region: Pakistan
Pant, Harsh V
Abstract
In November 2008, the financial capital of India, Mumbai, was struck by terrorists who the Indian (as well as the American and the British) intelligence later confirmed had received extensive training from the Pakistan-based group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, or Army of the Pure. Given the sophistication of planning and execution involved, it soon became apparent that this was a commando-style operation that possibly had the involvement of a state actor. As physical evidence mounted in terms of satellite phone calls, equipments, and boats used for the attack, Pakistan’s hand was seen as smeared all over the operation. Though India conceded that probably the new civilian administration of Asif Ali Zardari was not behind the attacks, the army and the ISI were seen as the main culprit (Chengappa 2008).
The public outcry after the Mumbai attacks was strong enough for the Indian government to consider using the military option vis-à-vis Pakistan. But it soon turned out that India no longer had the capability of imposing quick and effective retribution on Pakistan and that it no longer enjoyed the kind of conventional superiority vis-à-vis its regional adversary that it had enjoyed for the past five decades (Gupta 2009). This was a surprising conclusion for a nation that the international community regarded as a major global economic and military power, pursuing a defense modernization programme geared towards making arms purchases of more than US$35 billion over the next few years. Yet in many ways, it underlined fundamental weaknesses in Indian defense policy, especially its ad hoc attempts towards arms procurement and defense modernization. This article examines the trends in defense spending and arms procurement in India since the early 1990s, a period that has seen India rising in the global inter-state hierarchy. It argues that a lack of strategic orientation in Indian defense planning will make it difficult for India to effectively use its resources and this will circumscribe India’s rise as a global military power. First an overview of trends in Indian defense spending is presented followed by a discussion of the drivers of the Indian defense modernization program. Subsequently, India’s ties with its major defense partners—Russia, Israel, and the West—are examined. Finally, the constraints that will continue to constrain India’s ability to emerge as a major global military power are examined.
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Rao, Radhakrishna
Abstract
The proposed Foreign Secretary level talks between India and Pakistan has been widely perceived to be linked to Pakistan acting fast on the probe into the attack on Pathankot base of the Indian Air Force (IAF) by the terrorists of
Jaish-e-Mohammed, a fundamentalist outfit promoted by Maulana Masood Azhar. To complicate the matter further, the proposed talks are likely to run into a rough weather over the recent move by Pakistan to integrate the so called
Northern Areas made up of Gilgit and Baltistan into rest of the country ostensibly under “Chinese pressure”.
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Pandita, K.N
Abstract
Is the South Asian region (or Khurasan according to Islamic exegesis) emerging as the battlefield of a decisive clash of ideologies? Khurasan, originally an Avestic word, stands for the ‘lands to the East’. In geographical terms it could be Eastern part of Iran, Afghanistan and Baluchistan including its oceanic outreach.
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Kakar, Harsha
Abstract
Terrorists have always desired to obtain weapons of mass destruction or raw material enabling them to manufacture a dirty bomb, which though crude, would however cause high casualties. Simultaneously they would continue to attempt to strike any nuclear installation. Any single successful action would prompt the world to respond with force against the responsible group, as also lead to mass counter actions against select communities resulting in a mass counter actions against select communities resulting in a mass divide across the world. This could be a worst case scenario for the world. Nuclear proliferation was the agenda of the recently concluded Nuclear Security Summit in Washington.
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Ishtiaq, Sabah
Abstract
The on-and-off resumption of dialogue process has become more of a pattern between the strained India-Pakistan relations. The recent example being the brief meeting between the foreign secretaries of both countries, on the sidelines of the Heart of Asia conference on Afghanistan hosted by New Delhi, which failed to make progress on the stalled bilateral dialogue, post the Pathankot attack.
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Bhatia, NK
Abstract
India has been making the right moves with a view to enhance its interests in Persian Gulf, latest being the India –Iran –Afghanistan Trilateral Agreement on Transport and Transit Corridors which was finalised in a marathon meeting between the three sides on 11 April 2016 in New Delhi. This agreement once formalised will become the legal framework for optimum utilization of Chabahar port and establish the vital corridor for trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia. As per indicators all three sides are keen for an early finalisation of the agreement, likely to be signed in Tehran within the next two months at the highest levels between the three countries to coincide with visit of Prime Minister Modi to Iran in the near future.
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Bajpai, Arun
Abstract
India may have firmly rejected the US proposal some time back of jointly patrolling South China sea saying that it does so only under the auspices of UN, however with China vetoing the Indian proposal in UN of proscribing Maulana Azhar Masood, the head honcho of Pakistan sponsored jihadi organization Jaish Mohammad, responsible for the Pathankot Air Base attack of 02 Jan this year as also the Chinese military activities in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) may have acted as the last straw for India to continue to remain neutral to the China-Pakistan military nexus developing against it . By agreeing to sign in very near future the long pending Logistic Exchange Memorandum Of Agreement with US on this Tuesday the 12 April 16, India has now thrown open its cards indicating which way the wind is blowing.
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Marks, Joel
Abstract
With mounting concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the recent convening of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, nuclear proliferation has once again been elevated to the forefront of global security concerns. This article critically reviews the controversial theoretical arguments made by the two leading structural realists in the United States, Kenneth Waltz and John Mearsheimer, that the proliferation of nuclear weapons to new states will be beneficial for the maintenance of global security and assesses to what extent their ‘proliferation optimism’ has been validated by recent history. As the article argues, theoretical and empirical deficiencies within Waltz’s and Mearsheimer’s analyses render their optimistic scenarios regarding nuclear proliferation highly questionable. The dangers of nuclear proliferation are then illustrated by assessing the recent history of interstate military rivalry and conflict between two of the world’s newest nuclear armed states, India and Pakistan.
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Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I
Abstract
The link between energy, economic development and national security has often made governments reluctant to address energy in global governance. In the United Nations (UN) system and beyond, the result has been almost a normative and institutional vacuum on energy. In the last decade some efforts have been made to fill this vacuum within the UN but they have faced considerable resistance, and instead initiatives have multiplied outside it. This article outlines the dynamics of the low profile of the energy issue on the agenda of the UN since the organisation’s birth, analyses in more detail the efforts to strengthen this agenda in the 2000s, and also why they failed. Finally, it discusses possible future options for the UN and the international community at large to address this urgent issue, situates this discussion in the rationalist and constructivist theories of effective and legitimate global governance and outlines further research avenues.
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Bellany, Ian
Abstract
In the past, terrorists have tended to eschew acts of extreme violence for fear of alienating those whom they wish to persuade and attract to their cause. The first to discard this philosophy was the Aum group in Japan, which sought to use anthrax and acquire a nuclear weapon. Since then, attitudes have changed, spurred on by the impact on public perception of the successful Al Qaeda 9/11 attack on New York and Washington. By crossing the line between moderation and extreme violence, terrorist groups retain one valuable capability: they are much less easily deterred and have few inhibitions. This article considers the three nuclear options open to terrorists – produce a radiological contaminant bomb; build a nuclear bomb; or steal or get given a nuclear device. It examines the possibilities and probabilities of each option and considers how the implementation of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) provisions might impose some constraints on terrorists’ nuclear ambitions. By examining the doubtful nuclear security practices of different states and providing statistical evidence of an increase in levels of international terrorist violence, this article points to determined terrorists in time acquiring the means to acquire one or other variants of a nuclear weapon. It concludes that it is not a matter of “if” but “when.”
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Mohan, Surinder
Abstract
Most explanations tend to claim that ‘ideology’ played single most important role in initiating the Indo-Pakistani rivalry. This study argues that Kashmir’s territorial saliency and proximity with the challenger state, Pakistan, also played fundamental role to begin this rivalry. By adopting a conceptual framework underpinned by the conception of enduring rivalry, this article shows how the fusion of ideology, territorial saliency, and geographic contiguity formed a stronger core which influenced external strategic factors and collectively formulated a ‘hub-and-spokes’ framework to move the cartwheel of India–Pakistan rivalry. Placed within this framework, once India and Pakistan’s bilateral conflict over Kashmir had taken roots, ever-increasing interaction between ‘hub’ and ‘spokes’ brought in centripetal and centrifugal stress on the embryonic rivalry by unfolding a process of change, that is, the gradual augmentation in hostility and accumulation of grievances, which locked them into a longstanding rivalry.
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Heeg, Jason
Abstract
Relations between the USA and Pakistan have been tenuous since the 1947 partition of British India and the subsequent creation of the former. The 1979 Soviet intervention in Afghanistan focused the attention of the international community on South Asia. This article will examine the foreign policies of three successive US Presidential Administrations between 1977 and 1993, and how their decisions and corresponding actions were interpreted by the Pakistani government and its people. The key finding is the trend of the ebb and flow of US interest in Pakistan. The primary research conducted for this article shows that Pakistanis recognize this trend and consider it hypocritical of the US government. The current conditions in South Asia are ominously similar to those of 1992 with the drawdown of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan. Policy-makers would be wise to review the events of 1977–1993 so that the cycle is not repeated again.
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Chakma, Bhumitra
Abstract
Although it emerged as an overt nuclear power by testing nuclear weapons in May 1998, Pakistan is yet to formally adopt a nuclear use doctrine. This article endeavours to construct a proto Pakistani nuclear use doctrine from its declaratory and operational postures, in particular from the statements and interviews of the Pakistani political and military leaders and government officials. Initially reflecting upon its pre-1998 nuclear strategy, which has got critical implications for the post-tests doctrinal contemplation, this article explains Pakistani attempts to develop doctrinal concepts and a command and control structure, and illuminates the dilemmas and challenges Islamabad confronts in doing so. Finally, it provides a brief assessment of the Pakistani doctrine’s implications for other small nuclear powers and for crisis stability in the South Asia region.
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Thakur, Ramesh
Abstract
The nuclear arms control regime—centered on the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)—faces five challenges: failure of nuclear disarmament by the five NPT-licit nuclear powers (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States); possible cheating by non-nuclear signatories like North Korea and Iran; India, Israel, and Pakistan remaining outside the NPT; terrorists’ interest in acquiring and using nuclear weapons; and the safety, security and proliferation risks of the increased interest in nuclear energy to offset the financial and environmental costs of fossil fuel.
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