Abstract
The paper analyzes India–Pakistan’s lopsided nuclear deterrence and military strategies. India plans to deliberately escalate a limited war against Pakistan. Pakistan is determined to neutralize India’s schema on different planes, a limited conventional, limited nuclear to strategic nuclear wars. It is destabilizing and complicating South Asia’s nuclear deterrence matrix. Pakistan’s threshold has depleted due to its “two-frontal” security dilemma. It has considerably increased Pakistan’s reliance on nuclear weapons. It is deduced that, India–Pakistan’s inflexible and egocentric cultural mooring is inhibiting them from stepping back from perilous military strategies, which can trigger miscalculations, enhance misperceptions, or may lead to the outbreak of accidental/inadvertent limited conventional or nuclear war. Both countries need to recognize the imperative of a stable nuclear deterrence and peaceful coexistence instead of crafting unpredictable and dangerous strategies. The shared risks of nuclear catastrophe should motivate them to pursue rational and realistic policies.
Country or Region: Pakistan
Hussain, Ejaz
Abstract
This paper attempts to measure and explain the sustainability of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) by employing rational choice theory. Methodologically, the qualitative study relies on primary data in terms of elite interviews and secondary sources such as journals articles. This theory-guided empirical research has identified two sets of challenges, internal and external, that the economic corridor faces. Broadly, the challenges range from economic slowdown, political instability, religious extremism and terrorism that have taken toll of Pakistani economy, society and the state. The paper has provided policy input in terms of urging Pakistani government to reform its educational system and correct political instability along with targeting all types of militant organizations. Moreover, the study urges China to engage regional stakeholders in CPEC to realize regional and trans-regional connectivity to achieve economic integration of the market.
Khetran, Mir Sher Baz, and Muhammad Anjum Saeed
Abstract
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will not only enhance the strategic cooperation between Beijing and Islamabad, but also open up new avenues of economic development for the people of Balochistan. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has declared that Gwadar will be connected with main cities to expose the full potential of Balochistan. According to statistics from the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform, Balochistan is estimated to receive $7.1 billion initial investments through the CPEC, ranking second in its share from the total of $46 billion. The CPEC will connect Pakistan to Central Asia via the Eurasian Land Bridge planned under China’s “Belt and Road” initiative. The Pakistani government plans to hook up the country with Central Asia via Termiz (Uzbekistan), making Balochistan the central point of economic activities in the region. Balochistan, in general, and Gwadar, in particular, will hopefully become the linchpin of the CPEC. Significantly rich in mineral resources, Balochistan can contribute to regional economic integration and, in turn, benefit from this economic opportunity greatly.
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Mazumdar, Arijit
Publication Year: 2018
Indian Foreign Policy in Transition: Relations with South Asia
Summary
India’s relation with other South Asian countries has been impacted by recent developments in the post-Cold War period. These include India’s economic rise, the recent democratic transitions in many South Asian countries and greater US engagement in the region following 9/11. This book is an effort to address these issues and examine their role in India’s interactions with its neighbours.
Indian Foreign Policy in Transition
provides a comprehensive overview of India’s relations with the South Asian countries of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives. As well as looking at India’s past and present foreign policy, the book analyses recent political changes and developments. It identifies the broad tenets of India’s policy towards the other countries of South Asia, and the domestic factors that impact India’s policy in the region. It looks at India’s historical patterns of interactions with its neighbours, and describes recent developments in these South Asian countries and their perceptions of India. By providing specific examples of the major disputes and conflicts between India and its neighbours, the book explores the challenges inherent in promoting peace and cooperation, and goes on to highlight the growing US influence in South Asia.
Providing an in-depth discussion on the opportunities and challenges facing India in the South Asia region, the book is an important contribution to Indian and South Asian Politics, Foreign Policy, and International Relations.
Khan, Zafar
Publication Year: 2018
Pakistan’s Nuclear Policy: A Minimum Credible Deterrence
Summary
In May 1998, in reaction to India’s nuclear weapons tests, Pakistan tested six nuclear weapons. Following this, the country opted for a policy of minimum deterrence, and within a year Pakistan had altered its policy stance by adding the modifier of minimum ‘credible’ deterrence. This book looks at how this seemingly innocuous shift seriously impacted on Pakistan’s nuclear policy direction and whether the concept of minimum has lost its significance in the South Asian region’s changed/changing strategic environment.
After providing a brief historical background exploring why and how Pakistan carried out the nuclear development program, the book questions why Pakistan could not sustain the minimum deterrence that it had conceptualized in the immediate aftermath of the 1998 test. It examines the conceptual theoretical framework of the essentials of minimum deterrence in order to question whether Pakistan’s nuclear policy remained consistent with this, as well as to discover the rudimentary factors that are responsible for the inconsistencies with regard to minimum deterrence conceived in this study. The book goes on to look at the policy options that Pakistan had after acquiring the nuclear capability, and what the rationale was for selecting minimum deterrence. The book not only highlights Pakistan deterrent force building, but also analyzes closely Pakistan’s doctrinal posture of first use option. Furthermore, it examines the policy towards arms control and disarmament, and discusses whether these individual policy orientations are consistent with the minimum deterrence.
Conceptually providing a deeper understanding of Pakistan’s post-1998 nuclear policy, this book critically examines whether the minimum deterrence conceived could be sustained both at the theoretical and operational levels. It will be a useful contribution in the field of Nuclear Policy, Security Studies, Asian Politics, Proliferation/Non-Proliferation Studies, and Peace Studies. This book will be of interest to policy makers, scholars, and students of nuclear policy, nuclear proliferation and arms control related research.
Ganguly, Sumit
Publication Year: 2017
Deadly Impasse: Indo-Pakistani Relations at the Dawn of a New Century
Summary
What ails the Indo-Pakistani relationship? Rivalry between the two states has persisted since the partition of the British Indian Empire in 1947, and despite negotiations, four wars and multiple crises, India and Pakistan remain locked in a long-standing dispute. Evaluating relations from 1999 through to 2009, Sumit Ganguly seeks to understand this troubled relationship and why efforts at peace-making and conflict resolution, which have included unilateral Indian concessions, have not been more fruitful. Charting key sources of tension throughout the decade, including the origins and outcomes of the Kargil War in 1999, developments in the Indian-controlled portion of the state of Kashmir, the attack on the Indian parliament in December 2001 and the onset of the 2001-2 crisis, Deadly Impasse sets out to discover whether the roots of this hostile relationship stem from security dilemmas or reflect the dynamics between a status quo power and a predatory state.
Esfahani, Marzieh Kouhi, and Ariabarzan Mohammadi, eds
Summary
Asia has the world’s highest concentration of nuclear weapons and the most significant recent developments related to nuclear proliferation, as well as the world’s most critical conflicts and considerable political instability. The containment and prevention of nuclear proliferation, especially in Asia, continues to be a grave concern for the international community. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the state of nuclear arsenals, nuclear ambitions and nuclear threats across different parts of Asia. It covers the Middle East (including Israel), China, India-Pakistan and their confrontation, as well as North Korea. It discusses the conventional warfare risks, risks from non-state armed groups, and examines the attempts to limit and control nuclear weapons, both international initiatives and American diplomacy and interventions. The book concludes by assessing the possibility of nuclear revival, the potential outcomes of international approaches to nuclear disarmament, and the efficacy of coercive diplomacy in containing nuclear proliferation.
Dittmer, Lowell
Summary
This balanced and deeply informed book provides a comprehensive account of China’s Asia policy since the Cold War. Lowell Dittmer traces the PRC’s policy toward its Asian neighbors in the context of the country’s move from a developing nation to a great power, capable of playing a role in world politics commensurate with its remarkable economic rise. The author considers China’s bilateral relations with Russia, Central Asia, South and Southeast Asia, and Australia. Each of these relationships is also viewed in terms of China’s rivalry with the United States, which has viewed China’s rise with admiration tinged with a certain foreboding. Thus, Dittmer employs a triangular analysis to understand Beijing’s attempt to expand in Asia while at the same time deterring Washington’s interference. Reframing the international relations of Asia in a thought-provoking and informed manner, this important book presents a panoramic view of the dynamics at work on all sides of China.
Wilson, Alāna M., Sierra Gladfelter, Mark W. Williams, Sonika Shahi, Prashant Baral, Richard Armstrong, and Adina Racoviteanu
Abstract
Asia, a region grappling with the impacts of climate change, increasing natural disasters, and transboundary water issues, faces major challenges to water security. Water resources there are closely tied to the dramatic Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) mountain range, where over 46,000 glaciers hold some of the largest repositories of fresh water on earth (Qiu 2010). Often described as the water tower of Asia, the HKH harbors the snow and ice that form the headwaters of the continent’s major rivers (Bandyopadhyay 2013). Downstream, this network of river systems sustains more than 1.3 billion people who depend on these freshwater sources for their consumption and agricultural production, and increasingly as a source of hydropower (Immerzeel, Van Beek, and Bierkens 2010; National Research Council 2012; Rasul 2014).
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Toon, Owen B., Alan Robock, Michael Mills, and Lili Xia
Abstract
Of the nine countries known to have nuclear weapons, six are located in Asia and another, the United States, borders the Pacific Ocean. Russia and China were the first Asian nations with nuclear weapons, followed by Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea. Most of the world’s nuclear powers are reducing their arsenals or maintaining them at historic levels, but several of those in Asia—India, Pakistan, and North Korea—continue to pursue relentless and expensive programs of nuclear weapons development and production. Hopefully, the nuclear agreement reached in July 2015 between Iran, the European Union, and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council will be a step toward eliminating nuclear weapons throughout Asia and the rest of the world. As we will discuss below, any country possessing a nuclear arsenal is on a path leading toward self-assured destruction, and is a threat to people everywhere on Earth.
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Ahmen, Raja Qaiser and Misbah Arif
Abstract
India’s quest for space weaponization will have consequences for regional stability. South Asia remains a precarious region given the historical rivalry between India and Pakistan and their posture of mutual deterrence. India’s pursuit of space weaponization and subsequent militarization will trigger an expensive and unnecessary arms race between India and Pakistan, exacerbating the fragility of the South Asian security matrix.
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Small, Andrew
Abstract
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been billed as the “flagship project” of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), constituting the most expansive package of Chinese investments to be set in motion under its auspices to date. The headline numbers cited by the Pakistani government-$46 billion after CPEC’s launch in 2015, rising to $51 billion after the agreement of additional projects in September 2016-may err on the high side, but by late 2016 even the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ more conservative estimates of activities moving forward on the ground already totaled $14 billion. The scale and nature of CPEC, incorporating energy projects, rail and road connections, infrastructure development, and industrial zones, make it one of the only so-called corridors that genuinely seems to match the purported ambitions of Xi Jinping’s scheme. In the florid language of Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister: “If ‘One Belt, One Road’ is like a symphony involving and benefiting every country, then construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the sweet melody of the symphony’s first movement.”
That Pakistan should occupy such a prominent role in the initiative is surprising. Despite deep political and security ties between China and Pakistan, trade and investment has long been a weak element in the relationship, with a cautionary history of similarly grand announcements failing to translate into effect. One RAND study found that between 2001 and 2011, while $66 billion of Chinese investments in Pakistan were cumulatively announced, only 6% of these were ever actually realized.4 The concept of CPEC is only the latest iteration of proposed transportation and energy corridors between the two countries, which have tended to take more vivid form in the minds of geopolitical strategists than in reality. Although some of the conditions leading to this consistent pattern of disappointment in bilateral economic links have improved-including the security situation in Pakistan-many have not. As a result, when Xi launched CPEC during his April 2015 visit, many analysts evinced understandable skepticism about whether it would really move ahead at all.
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Yusuf, Moeed
Abstract
U.S.-Pakistan relations frayed considerably in the last eighteen months of the Obama administration. With President Donald Trump’s entry into the mix, Pakistanis sensed an opportunity to work with an administration that seems to have no preconceived South Asia policy. But progress will not be easy. The roots of U.S.-Pakistan tensions in recent years lie in the most canonical principle of interstate relations: a fundamental divergence of priorities and self-perceived interests. Each country’s policies in pursuit of its interests, perfectly rational in its own mind, have been antithetical to the other’s vision for South Asia. But both sides have been reluctant to acknowledge this situation-perhaps concerned that doing so would unleash the dangers associated with a total rupture in ties. This essay will examine the divergence in U.S. and Pakistani interests and consider the prospect for improved relations during the Trump administration.
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Schaffer, Teresita C
Abstract
U.S.-Pakistan relations have generated intense frustration for both countries. But Pakistan has 180 million people, nuclear weapons, and a major unresolved dispute with a nuclear neighbor. Among armed groups present there, some are starkly at odds with the government, others the army regards as intelligence assets, and some the United States regards as terrorists. Pakistan also has close political and growing economic relations with China, which it considers its most faithful friend. The new U.S. administration, like its predecessors, will need to deal seriously with Pakistan. Recent commentary referring to Pakistan, despite its history of alliance with the United States, as a “frenemy” captures some of the ambiguity in this complicated relationship.
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Ogden, Chris
Publication Year: 2016
New South Asian Security: Six Core Relations Underpinning Regional Security
Summary
New South Asian Security recasts the interpretation of security and international relations in South Asia. Moving away from the traditional emphasis on India–Pakistan relations, this volume focuses on the region’s unique confluence of two of the international system’s rising great powers (China and India), and two of its failing and most unstable states (Pakistan and Afghanistan). It also acknowledges that South Asian security rests upon the interaction between these four important states.
The volume also highlights the region’s present status as the fulcrum of contemporary dynamics of international relations and global trends (from rising powers and an Asian Century, to international terrorism, nuclear proliferation and energy security threats). These factors make South Asian security significant to the world, and highlight its relevance to the nature (and future) of the international system.
It explicitly:
- brings Afghanistan and China into the study of South Asian relations;
- confirms the relevance of big powers in South Asia to regional/global politics;
- compares the core norms underpinning bilateral relations among its four critical states; and
- constructs a collective understanding of the strategic interests driving regional security.
It thus both broadens and redefines our sense of South Asia, while underscoring the increased need for regional understandings concerning its security and stability, in the context of the planned withdrawal of external actors from Afghanistan.
This book will be indispensable for students and scholars of international relations, strategic studies, and peace and conflict studies.
