Abstract
Even though democracies by and large share the perception of Iran as a threat to peace and security, they disagree over the appropriate policy response. This paper examines why some democracies prefer accommodation while others plead for confrontation. Using a new data set on democracies’ policies toward Iran in the 2000s, we assess the impact of power positions, commercial interests, and domestic political cultures while controlling for government ideology. While we find little support for any impact of power positions, “cultures of dealing with deviance,” that is, the discourses and practices of dealing with violations of norms domestically as institutionalized in a society’s criminal law and justice system, have a substantial and statistically significant effect on state policies. Finally, we find qualified support for commercial liberalism: Whereas high levels of total trade do not have the expected effect of making states more accommodationist, high levels of trade in strategic goods such as oil do.
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Country or Region: Iran
Dadwal, Shebonti Ray
Abstract
As was anticipated, the nuclear sanctions imposed against Iran were finally lifted on January 16, 2016 after it was certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran had met its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached in July 2015 among six world powers. The deal has not only allowed Iran access to the billions of dollars of assets in international bank accounts that were frozen during the sanctions period, but will also possibly see thousands of barrels of Iranian crude added to its current exports of 2.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), with the possibility of 1 million barrels extra per day (mb/d) by the end of 2016. The announcement of the end to the sanctions regime imposed on Iran, has reiterated what the markets have been predicting for a while—that any recovery in oil prices will not be taking place till the end of the year at least, if not longer. But more importantly, what will it mean for the oil market in general and for the Persian Gulf oil-exporting states in particular at a time when the oil market is witnessing a 12-year low with prices that have dipped under $30 a barrel? Interestingly, despite the slump, demand has been tepid at best, contributing to the dismal price scenario. Given that the market was over-supplied by around one mb/d already, why did Washington allow Iran to return to the oil market at a time when the US oil sector was adversely affected by the low oil prices?
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Mason, Robert
Summary
Saudi Arabia, with its US alliance and abundance of oil dollars, has a very different economic story to that of Iran, which despite enormous natural gas reserves, has been hit hard by economic, trade, scientific and military sanctions since its 1979 revolution. Robert Mason looks at the effect that economic considerations (such as oil, gas, sanctions, trade and investment) have had on foreign policy decision-making processes and diplomatic activities. By examining the foreign policies of Saudi Arabia and Iran towards each other, and towards the wider Middle East and beyond, Mason seeks to highlight how oil policy, including oil production, pricing and security of supply and demand, is the paramount economic factor which drives the diplomacy and rivalry of these two pivotal regional powers. His book thus offers vital analysis for researchers of international relations in the Middle East and the processes involved in the formation of foreign policy.
Malone, David M., C. Raja Mohan, and Srinath Raghavan, eds
Publication Year: 2015
The Oxford Handbook of Indian Foreign Policy
Summary
Following the end of the Cold War, the economic reforms in the early 1990s, and ensuing impressive growth rates, India has emerged as a leading voice in global affairs, particularly on international economic issues. Its domestic market is fast-growing and India is becoming increasingly important to global geo-strategic calculations, at a time when it has been outperforming many other growing economies, and is the only Asian country with the heft to counterbalance China. Indeed, so much is India defined internationally by its economic performance (and challenges) that other dimensions of its internal situation, notably relevant to security, and of its foreign policy have been relatively neglected in the existing literature.
This handbook presents an innovative, high profile volume, providing an authoritative and accessible examination and critique of Indian foreign policy. The handbook brings together essays from a global team of leading experts in the field to provide a comprehensive study of the various dimensions of Indian foreign policy.
Onderco, Michal
Abstract
The controversy of the Iranian nuclear programme divided the European Union (EU) member states. Whereas some states preferred confrontation, others were in favour of the accommodation. Policy commentators frequently ascribed this difference to diverging economic interests of Europeans, but this link remained underexplored. In this article, the empirical link between the economic interests and positions towards Iran is explored. The analysis rests on the evaluation of both overall and strategic trade flows. The results suggest that while trade played a certain role in the shaping of the policies, the effect of the strength of the alliance with the USA explains a large part of the puzzle. The article thus casts shadow on the established policy narrative of economic interests being the driver of the EU members’ Iran policy. In addition, the theoretical implications cast shadow over the applicability of commercial liberalism on instances of confrontation short of war.
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Parchami, Ali
Abstract
Drawing on the memoirs of Hassan Rowhani, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator (2003–2005) and newly elected president, this paper considers the impact of the Bush Administration’s Iran policy on the internal politics of the Islamic Republic and the dynamics of its nuclear negotiation strategy. It argues that the administration had a detrimental effect on international nuclear negotiations with Iran and should be considered at least partially responsible for the current nuclear impasse. Identifying three key areas, it focuses on the administration’s rejection of constructive engagement with the relatively moderate government of President Mohammad Khatami; the negative influence of the USA during Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the EU3; and the administration’s refusal to provide the Iranians with confidence-building incentives, or countenance unconditional nuclear talks, despite a policy change in Washington that was ostensibly multilateralist and gave the impression of directly engaging with the Iranians.
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Vakil, Sanam
Abstract
US-Iranian relations have been stalled for over three decades due to missteps in timing, distrust, hostility and ideological differences between Tehran and Washington. Six American presidents have experimented with different political and economic tools in an effort to reverse Iranian support for terrorist groups, its opposition to Israel and its pursuit of a nuclear programme. President Barack Obama’s direct engagement with Tehran to end the nuclear standoff is a first step towards improved relations between two estranged countries that share a number of mutual interests.
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Sanati, Reza
Abstract
This article examines the geopolitical determinants that have underpinned contemporary Iran–US relations, challenging the established thinking on why this relationship has been characterized by hostility. It is argued that the primacy that has been given to the role of domestic politics in either the US or Iran, as being the main arbiter of this relationship, is incomplete. This relationship is just as much a product of the structural conditions within the Middle East and the wider international system, which created the conditions for the clashing of the core national interests of both these states. However, due to the massive political and social alterations within the Middle East in the past decade, the notion of ‘strategic irreconcilability’ between both actors is now fundamentally changing. This has given room for a possible recalibration of the Iran–US relationship. Ultimately, it is argued that the synthesis of the domestic, the regional, and geopolitical levels of analysis are needed for a more holistic picture of the past, present, and future of Iran–US ties.
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Kaussler, Bernd
Abstract
The paper surveys current EU–Iran relations, analysing both European Union statecraft towards Iran and the geo-strategic and economic determinants informing diplomacy. Since 1992, the EU’s relations with Iran have been based on the framework of ‘constructive engagement’ in order to address areas of mutual concern through direct contact and dialogue. It is argued that since 2004, the EU has largely abandoned constructive engagement. Rather, the EU-3 have aligned themselves with US policy and shifted focus to Iran’s alleged nuclear weaponization and supported Washington’s strategy of deterrence and containment. It is argued that this shift in EU strategy has resulted in Iran moving closer to Turkey as a new third party mediator and strategic ally and has so far prevented an EU-brokered initiative to break the stalemate.
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Alcaro, Riccardo
Abstract
With the US eventually embracing the European-devised ‘dual track’ approach comprising both sanctions and incentives, the transatlantic partners have currently reached a remarkable level of convergence on how to deal with the Iranian nuclear conundrum. Although EU–US unity might not be enough to solve the dispute, the experience of transatlantic cooperation on Iran offers some important lessons. It shows that strategic convergence between the transatlantic partners, or lack thereof, has a considerable impact on the way a crisis unfolds in an area in which both parties have a stake. It highlights the added value represented by European/EU political and economic assets in a situation in which US military options are both unlikely to have the desired effect and at grave risk of backlash. Finally, it sets an important precedent for a specific option for intra-EU and EU–US cooperation – the contact or lead group – that seems to suit the emerging multipolar world better than other, more institutionalised methods.
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Alcaro, Riccardo, and Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi
Abstract
At the time of writing, representatives from Iran and the E3/EU+3 are trying to work out an agreement that will guarantee that Iran’s controversial nuclear programme, widely suspected of having a military purpose, serves only peaceful ends. As the negotiations enter their most crucial phase, the time is ripe to attempt an assessment of the role played by the only actor, besides Iran, that has been on stage since it all began over ten years ago: Europe. Throughout this long drama, Europe’s performance has had some brilliant moments. Yet the quality of its acting has decreased as a new protagonist, the US, has come on stage. Overall, the Europeans’ record is positive, albeit not entirely spotless.
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Rezaei, Farhad, and Ronen A. Cohen
Abstract
The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran led to a set of major shifts in the Middle East and an anti-Israeli stance became a central approach of the revolutionaries. Up to 1979, however, Tel Aviv had a close relationship with Tehran whose enmity with its Arab neighbours was anchored in a historical struggle for regional supremacy. Israel has remained an enemy of Islam and the Muslims for the revolutionary leaders and as Iran’s power grew Israel’s anxiety increased accordingly. A new division of power in the region and Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons led to a direct rivalry between Iran and Israel and consequently many Israelis have come to regard Iran and its nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel that has to be halted. This article explores the roots of enmity between these two countries, scrutinizes the threats of a nuclear armed Iran for Israel and attempts to determine what kind of measures might work to convince Iran to renounce its nuclear program. The article has four sections with the first section covering the history of the relations and the origins of hostility between Iran and Israel. The second section provides a brief overview of how the division of regional power led to direct rivalry between Tehran and Tel Aviv. The third section details Iran’s nuclear program and examines its threats to Israel and the last section covers the current sanctions debate over what type of measures might work to compel Iran to renounce its nuclear weapons.
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Geranmayeh, Ellie
Abstract
World powers and Iran are on the cusp of reaching a final nuclear deal after more than a decade of negotiations. The extent of details divulged in Lausanne regarding the parameters for a comprehensive nuclear deal suggests that negotiators have overcome an impasse in the talks. But technical and political challenges remain before the deal can be sealed and delivered. In particular, an obstructionist stance from the US Congress could severely undermine the ability of the West to fulfill its obligation under a final deal. Europeans have a strategic interest in reaching a deal which addresses their non-proliferation concerns on Iran. Given its proximity to the Middle East, Europe also has a necessity to move the current détente with Iran forward beyond a nuclear-centric discourse to focus on de-escalation in the region. Europe should utilise its political space to keep up the momentum behind the nuclear talks, push all sides to the finishing line and safeguard the détente process with Iran thereafter.
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Barzegar, Kayhan
Abstract
The nuclear negotiations between Iran and EU3+3 have provided the grounds for establishing direct talks between Iran and the United States, subsequently creating a positive prospect for solving the Iranian nuclear standoff after a decade of negotiations. The effect of economic sanctions and political change in Iran have made it possible to bring an important foreign policy issue into domestic politics discourses. The fact that the nuclear negotiations put Iran in a position comparable to the other world powers strengthened a sense of movement towards a win-win situation among Iranian political forces. All of this created a relative political consensus among Iran’s ruling elites regarding the need to initiate direct talks with the United States in order to solve the Iranian nuclear standoff. The nuclear programme is also linked with the regional equation, the result of which has been the emergence of a new kind pragmatism in the conduct of Iranian regional policy in hope of revising Iran’s place in US Middle East policy.
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Sanaei, Mehdi
Abstract
For many years, the Iranian nuclear program has remained one of the key flashpoints in international politics and one of the most sensitive issues in the Greater Middle East. But just over a year since the election of Hassan Rouhani as the new Iranian president, resolution of the Iranian nuclear problems seems to be closer than ever. What is Iran’s own vision of its nuclear industry development goals, and what does it hope for in terms of international cooperation in that area? Does it regard Russia as a promising partner for current and future nuclear energy projects? And what are the basic principles of the Iranian leadership as far as nuclear nonproliferation Is concerned? Security Index has put these and other questions to Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the Russian Federation, His Excellency Mehdi Sanaei.
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