Abstract: Indo-Pacific construct has picked up a motivating pace in recent years. Several countries across the world have shown their interest in joining the Indo-Pacific region. Indo-Pacific region has been the world’s leading source and destination of foreign investment. This article analyses the trends in investment, bilateral and multilateral investment engagements and investment barriers and presents a way to promote foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Indo-Pacific region. It also examines India’s investment relations with some of the Indo-Pacific countries. Further, it looks into the inter-linkages between FDI and global value chain, given that multinational firms play a significant role in bringing international sourcing, technology sharing, and production networking across countries. Full text available here.
Country or Region: India
Pradhan, Ramakrushna
Abstract: The fight for hegemony in Central Asia has existed for ages. Strategically placed between two nuclear powers—Russia and China—and geopolitically located at the heart of Eurasia, Central Asia has always remained in global limelight. Even after the disintegration of the USSR, the geopolitical importance of Central Asia never waned down, instead emerged as a grand chessboard for regional and extra-regional player for the immense opportunities it has offered in the form of widely untapped natural resources and geostrategic leverages. Importantly, it has emerged as the latest geological landscape for the energy crunch countries as potentially new and non-OPEC source of oil and natural gas. In the quest for energy security and diversity of supply sources by the energy consumers, the heartland region has witnessed a new great game in the scramble for resources. This accentuated struggle for oil and energy in the region has further led to aggressive foreign policy formulations and strategic calculation by countries like the United States, China, European Union, Japan, Israel, Iran, Pakistan and India, to which many now call as the New Great Game for not just controlling but administering the energy resources of the region. The bottom line of the New Great Game unlike the previous version is essentially played out around petropolitics and pipeline diplomacy. It is in this context this research article makes a modest attempt to examine the energy factor in the geopolitics of Central Asia and tries to figure out the position of India in the epic quest for oil in the traditional bastion of Russia and the new grand chessboard of China and the United States. Full text available here.
Manish, and Prashant Kaushik
Abstract: This paper highlights China’s views regarding CPEC and argues that stakes are very high for China in CPEC, and it is a project that must succeed if BRI is to go down in history as a success. However, CPEC’s success cannot be ensured without responding to the security challenge present in Pakistan and Afghanistan, which has the potential to jeopardise the CPEC and as a result the entire BRI. Hence, China is required to engage with both Pakistan and Afghanistan to ensure the long-term security of the CPEC. Building of CPEC and its further extension leaves India with limited options but augmenting economic, political and security concerns. Full text available here.
Xie, Chao
Abstract: Noticing the gap in the existing literature, this article attempts to argue that status-seeking motives do not necessarily result in zero-sum games and hence tries to summarise conditions for status-seekers to manage conflicts and realise cooperation with one another through creative use of social mobility and creativity strategies. As a case study, this article examines the evolving relations between India and China since 2013 and demonstrates how relations between these two status-seeking states can become confrontational with conflicting status-seeking incentives. For some time, the status competition seemingly dominated their interactions, when India was not willing to accept China’s power status second only to the USA, and China reluctant to recognise India as another rising power with nuclear capabilities. After the Donglang (Doklam) standoff, both governments are finding ways to manage an indirect path for cooperation through a newly discovered multilateral framework. The elements contributing to the stability of their relations lie in their choice of international identity and political calculations in which they can engage with the other based on their shared interests in fostering solidarity among developing countries. Full text available here.
Westcott, Stephen P
Abstract: The Sino-Indian border dispute has been effectively stalemated since the end of the 1962 Border War and remains a source of serious tension between the two Asian giants. Yet there were several instances throughout the 1950s and the early 1960s when the two sides could have resolved their dispute amicably. Curiously, despite several detailed historical accounts on how the Sino-Indian border dispute developed, there has been few systematic theoretical accounts exploring why this occurred. To address this gap, I utilise poliheuristic choice theory to examine the choices of the both the key decision-makers of the time, Mao Zedong and Jawaharlal Nehru. The poliheuristic choice theory illuminates why both Mao and Nehru initially chose status quo policies before embracing either compromise or escalation policies, when faced with domestic pressure at home and ideological impulses. Full text available here.
Kumar, Sanjeev
Abstract: In recent years, there has been a rise in China’s profile in South Asia. It is no surprise that Chinese experts have used terms, such as ‘new springtime’ in China–South Asia relations, ‘rediscovery of the strategic status of South Asia’ and ‘most relevant region with regard to the rise of China’. The objective of this article is to examine the nature and drivers of China’s South Asia policy, especially under the leadership of Xi Jinping vis-à-vis China’s policy towards the region in the past. It is not sufficient to only examine international factors or foreign and security policy in the context of the neighbouring region, such as South Asia. China’s ‘domestic periphery’ presents a significant threat to its national security. These areas are linked to neighbouring countries of South Asia and Central Asia. The announcement by Chinese President Xi Jinping of a ‘New Era’ or ‘third era’ in the history of Communist Party of China (CPC) represents a China which is known for its dictum ‘striving for achievement’ (fenfa youwei). This is different from the second era’s policy of ‘keeping a low profile and biding the time’ proposed by Deng Xiaoping. Of course, the name of Mao Zedong is synonymous with the first era beginning from 1949. Full text available here.
Surie, Nalin
Abstract: Given the essential positive history of China’s relations with India, China’s world view and the fact of geographical contiguity, the essential approach that China follows vis-à-vis India post 1949 is based on bilateralism. The bilateral approach has defined China’s negotiations over the border as well as economic relations between the two. In the past bilateralism has allowed China to consolidate its control over Tibet and follow a mercantilist economic policy vis- a- vis India. But the change in the geopolitical status of both nations indicates that bilateral relations, after Wuhan, have been reset to represent those between two ‘major powers’ who have broader regional and global interests as well. Although bilateralism will continue to underline their policies towards each other in matters of common development, regional development or the building of a community with a shared future for humanity, China will need to redefine its approach to bilateralism by broadening and deepening it to create a truly mutual relationship. Full text available here.
Purushothaman, Uma, and Nandan Unnikrishnan
Abstract: The Eurasian supercontinent has again assumed importance in world politics in the context of the declining power of the USA, the rise of India and China and Russia’s return to global geopolitics. At the same time, ‘connectivity’ has become the catchphrase in the supercontinent, thanks to China’s aggressive pushing of its Belt Road Initiative (BRI). This article examines India’s approaches to connectivity projects in Eurasia, including those in its immediate neighbourhood. It argues that India’s approach to connectivity-related cooperation ideas in the region like the BRI is not uniform despite the economic advantages some of these projects offer. India appears to view such projects to a significant extent through the prism of geostrategic and security interests. Finally, it examines the implications of India’s approach to connectivity for India as well as the broader region. Full text available here.
Chandra, Vikash
Abstract: This article has two-fold goals: to develop a coherent concept of accommodation and explicate variable shaping the process of accommodation; and to analyse and evaluate the challenges and prospects of India’s accommodation in the emerging international order. It defines accommodation as a ‘state strategy’ and ‘process’. It figures out six determinants viz. the sphere of influence, structural variables, convergence/divergence of national interest, perception and intention towards the international order, political and socio-cultural values, and costs of non- accommodation. Instead of addressing the process of accommodation from accommodation-seekers’ perspective, the article investigates the issue from accommodators’ perspective. Therefore, rather than describing traditional foundations of India’s claim of accommodation, i.e. population, territory, military, and democracy, it illustrates conditions under which the established power accommodate rising powers. By comparing and contrasting India’s interests, principles, and values vis-à-vis the USA and China, it demonstrates how differing strategic calculations, economic and commercial interests and divergence in political socio-cultural norms and values, China is posing or may pose challenges to India’s accommodation. It suggests that India needs to strike a balance between the declining America and rising China. It will have to learn how not to turn China from an adversary to an enemy. A prudent strategy for India will be to balance China, however, in the non-military, i.e. diplomatic, political and economic realms. Nevertheless, the engagement dimension should not be marginalised, actual or even perceived. Full text available here.
Behera, Laxman Kumar, and G. Balachandran
Abstract: The defence industrial cooperation is a clear missing link in an otherwise expanding strategic relationship between India and the US. The one-way defence trade is not only out of sync with India’s traditional demand for technology transfer and license production from its arms suppliers, but is also contrary to Make in India initiative of the Indian government. It is, therefore, imperative for New Delhi in particular to find an industrial solution to its increasing yet skewed defence trade relationship with Washington. Besides demanding industrial benefits from all possible defence deals with the US in the future, New Delhi has to do a few more things to deepen the industry-to-industry cooperation with the US. Among others, it has to use its defence offset policy carefully to facilitate greater military-specific technology transfers for its industry; and at the same time lay a strong foundation for a robust in-house industrial base which can receive and absorb all such transfers. Full text available here.
Choudhury, Avinandan, and P. Moorthy
Abstract: The increasing Chinese naval presence in and around Indian ocean, coupled with the rise of the home-grown Indian Navy and the US naval dominance over the global commons, has brought about a strategic maritime triangle in the Indian Ocean. This article looks into the evolving role, capacity and objectives of the Indian, Chinese and US Navy vis-à-vis their strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region. The article argues that the ascendency of China’s naval prowess in Indian Ocean will prod India to opt for a tactical naval entente with the USA. Few impediments to the potential formation of a close-knit Indo-US partnership like India’s fear of losing strategic autonomy, its aversion in being an east Asian naval power, US–Pakistan ties and the difference in the Indian and USA’s interpretation of the concept of ‘Freedom of Navigation’ have been discussed. The article contends that an effective Indo-US naval cooperation will depend on how these impediments are taken into considerations within the make-up of their partnership. Full text available here.
Golobokov, Andrei S
Abstract: The paper evaluates Russia’s increased naval presence in the Asian–Pacific region,
considering the naval interactions with China, India, Vietnam, the Philippines
etc., an important component of Russia’s national strategy and maritime policy
in the region. By strengthening cooperation with the navies of these countries in
different parts of the world, Moscow demonstrates its political preferences and
military capabilities by checking the combat readiness of its own Navy, as well as
modernizing its strategy and tactics, taking into account the modern experience of
combat operations among the other fleets. It then presents a valuable opportunity for
Russia to defend its national interests while remaining a non-aligned and predictable
actor. By analyzing the dynamics, metrics and substance of Russia’s naval activities,
the author tries to clarify the strategic goals of the Russian and other countries’
navies, and also to define some qualitative characteristics, such as the level of
interaction between the Russian Navy and each of its partners, operational tasks of
the exercises, etc. In addition, Russia’s joint maneuvers not only maintain its status
as a great maritime power and raises its international authority but also may serve as
a balancing factor for the U.S. and Chinese navies to improve the security situation
in the Asia–Pacific. Full text available here.
Haong, Hai Ha
Abstract: The paper explores the development of Vietnam’s bilateral defense diplomacy with world and regional powers including the United States, India, and Japan, with a particular focus on the period from 2009 to 2018. The paper finds that Vietnam’s multidirectional defense diplomacy is fundamentally shaped by its historical experience, the contemporary shift in the balance of power and the strategic challenges caused by China’s emerging power. By pursuing a multi–polar balance among major partners, Vietnam avoids being pulled into their rivalry, and keeps its non-alignment as well as strategic autonomy. The international defense cooperation has become further deepened and more substantive to satisfy Vietnam’s strategic interests including national security, territorial integrity, economic development and regime legitimacy. However, domestic and geo–strategic constraints, and asymmetrical economic interdependence with China lead this paper to suppose further challenges in the future of Vietnam’s defense diplomacy. Full text available here.
Kurita, Masahiro
Abstract: The nuclear dimension of the China-India relationship has a striking feature vis-à-vis other nuclear rivalries. Due to significant asymmetries in their second strike capabilities, their deterrence relationship should lack military stability and entail risks such as potential nuclear use or threat of use, and nuclear arms race. In reality, however, the manifestation of such risks has been contained to a considerable extent. This situation can be explained by the features of the overall China-India relationship, the stability of the balance of conventional forces, the consolidation of confidence-building measures, the absence of the “stability-instability paradox” discourse, and the political conception of nuclear weapons in both countries. Full text available here.
Garlick, Jeremy
Abstract: Intense interest in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was stimulated when US$46 billion of investment agreements were signed in April 2015, a sum which two years later increased to US$62 billion. A major focus of CPEC is on developing overland transportation and pipeline links from the port of Gwadar to the Chinese province of Xinjiang as a land-based alternative to the maritime ‘chokepoint’ of the Straits of Malacca. This article assesses the viability of pipelines connecting China to the Indian Ocean through Pakistan via a close analysis of evidence obtained from both primary and secondary sources. It concludes that the overland connection is beset with difficulties because of geographical, economic and security problems, and that China’s long-term motivations for maintaining a presence in Pakistan are likely to be chiefly geopolitical rather than geo-economic. In fact, China’s primary aim with CPEC and other investments is to hedge against India by establishing a physical presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), a strategy which is herein referred to as geo-positional balancing. Full text available here.
