Abstract: In global politics, the relations between India and China have long been branded by the countries’ customary rivalry. Bitterness and resentment between the two came to the fore with the exile of Dalai Lama to India in 1959. Subsequent to this episode, the Sino-Indian war of 1962 further exacerbated their already strained ties. The continued border dispute, much importantly added fuel to fire. Altercations in their relations, thus are yet not extinguished. In the twenty-first century, when these Asian giants are putting forward their soft power together with military muscle through economic persuasion, the waters of the Indian Ocean are sponsoring economic and geo-strategic conflicts between the two. “India’s participation in the new alliance formed in the maritime domain whereas could cause increasing insecurities to Beijing, Beijing’s unregulated assertiveness through monetary aids along with modernized naval tactics is also viewed to have escalated India’s security concerns”. The global powers when examine such bilateral equation with probabilities of drawing complexities, cooperation between the two, in the form of an unprecedented “maritime dialogue”, demonstrate their unabated commitment to ensure maritime security while pursuing their geo-strategic ambitions in the region. Developments of this kind can help promote regional peace as well. Full text available here.
Country or Region: India
Kaura, Vinay
Abstract: China’s unprecedented economic rise and its growing military profile have transformed the threat matrix for India. China is challenging India’s interests in its immediate neighbourhood in multiple ways. Managing strategic challenge from China, therefore, has become a topmost foreign policy priority for India. The article argues that given the structural constraints of New Delhi-Beijing rapprochement, there is an urgent need for India to step up quadrilateral security cooperation with the U.S., Japan and Australia. The revival of the Quad reflects this growing consensus. However, India’s hedging approach – simultaneously balancing and engaging with China – may be politically expedient in the short run, but not without long-term adverse consequences. Full text available here.
Paul, Joshy M
Abstract: India–Japan security cooperation is a critical component in the evolving security mechanism of the Indo-Pacific region. Both states are secondary states in the international system that opposes one country’s emergence as a regional hegemon. China’s rise and her ambition to dominate the Indo-Pacific would affect the security interests of India and Japan. The U.S., the current preponderant power in the region, seems unable to contain China by itself. So it is looking for strategic partnerships with regional countries who are militarily capable of challenging China, and persuading them to balance China. In this regard, the two powerful states in China’s own backyard – Japan in the western Pacific and India in the Indian Ocean – have come together to counter the Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific. In this effort, they have gradually built up naval cooperation sans a formal military alliance. They follow soft balancing strategies over hard balancing ones because neither wants to antagonise China. Similarly both countries seek to expand their presence through mutual cooperation beyond South-east Asia. This article explains the nature and context of soft power balancing strategies and the manner in which the India–Japan maritime security cooperation has evolved over the last two decades. Full text available here.
Mao, Jikang, and Li Mingjiang
Abstract: From China’s perspective, border disputes, India’s strategic cooperation with other major powers and security competition between China and India in IOR [Indian Ocean Region] are the main factors shaping Sino-India relations. China believes that border disputes is difficult to resolve but largely manageable, India is wary of joining forces with US and other major powers to contain China, and the two countries can still seek coexistence in IOR even though India is concerned about China’s growing influence in this region. China is implementing a counter-hedging strategy towards India that features active engagement with India on one hand and a certain level of security pressures on India on the other hand. To prevent these three problems from becoming more serious and exacerbating the Sino-Indian contradiction, China find it necessary to pay more attention on engagement with India and come up with more diplomatic resources and policy inputs in handling the bilateral relations. Full text available here.
Rai, Ashok
Abstract: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD, hereinafter referred to as Quad), which had come into existence in 2007, ceased following the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the withdrawal of Australia during Kevin Rudd’s tenure as Prime Minister. However, on the side lines of the 2017 ASEAN Summit, the subject of a structure that would facilitate peace, stability and development in the Indo-Pacific region which, is supposedly under threat due to China’s assertive behaviour, came up for discussions once again between leaders of US, Japan, Australia and India. The revival of the Quad (colloquially termed as “Quad 2.0”), after a hiatus of nearly a decade was viewed with concern by the Chinese media, which termed the grouping as a possible first step towards the formation of an “Asian NATO”. The Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, however was more dismissive, comparing the idea of reviving the Quad to “foam in the ocean, destined to dissipate soon”. Against the backdrop of a globalised and intertwined economy, where economic interdependence appears to be the norm in deciding national interests, this paper examines the likely future trajectory of this grouping and attempts to determine which of the two assessments is more plausible. Full text available here.
Gill, Japish S., and Ryan Mitra
Abstract: India’s maritime philosophy has been clearly outlined in both literature, and practice. From a defensive realist perspective, India’s approach to the high seas has brought home various advantages and elevated the country to the status of a major naval power in its region. Despite this prowess, in view of the globalised times and dynamically changing geopolitical scenarios unfolding to its East, India’s interpretation, methods of evaluation, and implementation of its policies, all need to evolve. This paper sheds light on the growing strategic importance-of the South East Asian Regional Complex, as also on the developmental vacuum in this Regional Complex, with specific focus upon Indonesia. The authors aim to address two fundamental questions —“How should India’s relations with Indonesia evolve?”, and, “In what manner should it evolve?”. Indonesia’s role in India’s maritime objectives is a central one and the evolving variables in India’s defensive realist approach places this South East Asian country right at the core of New Delhi’s interests. Full text available here.
Mishra, Vivek
Abstract: India and the US have crossed the proverbial Rubicon in their bilateral ties, with maritime cooperation being the mainstay. The US-India navy-to-navy cooperation has emerged as the “best performing area of bilateral relationship”. The maritime domain including the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific area has emerged as the domain for the identification of commonly perceptible threats and goals in the larger Asian maritime expanse. A series of developments, agreements and understandings has gradually been cementing the rubric of US-India maritime cooperation. This paper proposes to justify the hypothesis that maritime cooperation between the US and India is one of the primary mainstays of their bilateral cooperation, and that the proposition will only get stronger going forward. By analysing various steps in maritime cooperation between the two countries, the paper seeks to highlight the rationales for such cooperation; growing Chinese presence in the region, non-traditional threats, HA/DR cooperation, domain awareness, reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, regional stability, and balance of power. Full text available here.
Zeng, Xiangyu, and Liu Jiawei
Abstract: India, China and Japan, the economic big three in Asia, is heavily dependent on maritime trade in terms of importation of energy and other natural resources in addition to import/export of manufactured products. Major economic, political and security impact has been resulted from such a dependence, as the sea-lines of communication for maritime trade across the Indian Ocean and West Pacific is vulnerable to heavy conventional/unconventional threat. Policy measures have been taken in order to mitigate the vulnerabilities. Accelerated development of maritime powers, bilateralism/multilateralism, enhanced engagement with regional players and diversification policies are among such effort. The unconventional challenges are on the decline, partly thanks to effective counter-measures, while the conventional challenges is on the rise, also partly due to the mis-match of policies from major stakeholders. The Rise of Indo-Pacific Concept and the Emerging Maritime Regionalism can be a double-edge sword. Clarification of strategic intention and effective policy dialogue is needed for a more harmonious maritime engagement among the three. Strategic vision and smart policies are needed to ensure a cooperation for the benefit of all stakeholder inclusive of the three countries in particular. Full text available here.
Rajput, Aniruddha
Abstract: At a time when there are instances of lack of participation in binding dispute resolution mechanisms under the UNCLOS, the Bay of Bengal Arbitrations provide a ray of hope and adherence to the rule of law. The three Bay of Bengal States: Bangladesh, India and Myanmar settled their long standing disputed claims over the maritime zones in the Bay of Bengal in a peaceful manner. These cases represent that States relatively stronger on the political level as compared to others are willing to compromise their positions and adhere to the outcome of dispute resolution proceedings under the UNCLOS. These cases involved sensitive issues such as the determination of the land boundary terminus, based upon the reports and other proceedings relating to the partition of India. There were other controversial claims over certain islands, which too were presented for adjudication and the decision was thereafter complied with all the parties to the dispute. These cases thus constitute a prime example of the importance of adherence to a rule based system for maritime claims. Full text available here.
Khurana, Gurpreet S
Abstract: This paper reviews the existing multilateral structures in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) – notably the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) – in the context of various geopolitical facets, ranging from geoeconomics to regional security and good order. It examines and recommends options to bolster economic multilateralism in the IOR though a comprehensive two-fold approach. The first one seeks to enhance intraregional trade, maritime–economic connectivity, and technology sharing, delving into issues relating to a region-wide free trade agreement (FTA), the amalgamation of economic corridors within IORA, and the “Make in India” initiative. The second is founded upon the indispensability of a secure and conducive maritime environment for economic development, and addresses maritime safety and security (MSS), as also “good order” in the IOR. It suggests measures to bolster the IORA’s nascent MSS architecture with a web of bilateral, trilateral and subregional mechanisms, emphasising the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) as the key functional enabler of IORA’s MSS agenda. It also examines the imminent challenges relating to freedom of navigation (FoN), and undertakes an appraisal of Sri Lanka’s draft Code of Conduct (CoC) for the Indian Ocean. The arguments presented hinge upon the suggestion that the collective approach of the IOR countries should ideally be in consonance with India’s prime-ministerial enunciation of the concept of SAGAR – security and growth for all in the region. If each Indian Ocean country’s economy is a “boat”, the Indian “boat” cannot rise unless all “boats” rise with a rising economic tide. Full text available here.
Jacob, Jabin T.
Abstract: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is often sold as a project that aims to meet the infrastructure deficit in many underdeveloped parts of the world. However, Chinese projects under the BRI come with features that have negative short-term and long-term implications for the host countries in question. Chinese project financing almost uniformly lacks transparency, including about the terms of this financing, and is accompanied by uncertainty about local benefits such as employment and by poor standards. This paper begins by highlighting some key features of Chinese infrastructure projects under the BRI, before it examines, in detail, the financing of these projects, particularly in South Asia. The article concludes by stating that China’s success in pushing the BRI – despite its several problems – is the result of the inability of democratic nations to come up with feasible alternatives that respect local sensitivities and conditions in the countries in need of infrastructure development. India, especially, has much to reflect upon in respect of its own methods and approaches towards its neighbours and towards overseas development assistance in the wake of China’s BRI. Full text available here.
Vivoda, Vlado
Abstract: Asia’s share of global demand for natural gas has increased from 12 to 21 per cent since the turn of the century, and the overall consumption has more than doubled. At the same time, there is a widening gap between regional natural gas demand and supply, with increasing reliance on imports. In 2017, Asian importers absorbed 72 per cent of globally traded liquefied natural gas (LNG). Their LNG import dependence is forecast to grow significantly over the coming decades. This paper explores major Asian importers’ approaches to LNG import diversification between 2001 and 2017 and explains why patterns of LNG imports differ across countries and over time. The focus of the paper is on five largest LNG importers in the region: China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The paper utilises the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index (HHI) of market concentration to evaluate LNG import diversification across the five countries. The analysis contributes to a growing body of literature that evaluates various aspects of energy import diversification in the context of broader energy security strategies. Findings suggest that all countries have improved their LNG import portfolios, although there is significant temporal variation across countries. Reflecting on the relationship between energy security and growth, the paper concludes by outlining policy implications for regional energy policymakers. Full text available here.
Smith, Jeff M., ed.
Description: In recent years the narrative surrounding China’s “peaceful rise” has given way to a more ominous story of friction, ambition, and great-power rivalry. As Chinese foreign policy has grown more nationalist and assertive, its intensifying competition with the U.S. has assumed center stage. The impact on China’s neighbors, by contrast, and their evolving responses, have received comparatively less attention.
The Realist theory of international relations suggests the rapid accumulation of power by one nation-state will prompt its neighbors and peers to adopt Balancing strategies. They will strive to enhance their internal defense capabilities and forge new external security partnerships to hedge against this potential new threat. Have these predictions rung true? Are key Indo-Pacific capitals Balancing, and drawing closer to the U.S. as insurance against Chinese aggression? Or is China a new breed of rising power, challenging traditional theories of international relations in a newly-globalized, economically interdependent world?
Mischa Hansel, Raphaëlle Khan, and Mélissa Levaillant (Eds)
Description: Examined from a non-Western lens, the standard International Relations (IR) and Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) approaches are ill-adapted because of some Eurocentric and conceptual biases. These biases partly stem from: first, the dearth of analyses focusing on non-Western cases; second, the primacy of Western-born concepts and method in the two disciplines. That is what this book seeks to redress. Theorizing Indian Foreign Policy draws together the study of contemporary Indian foreign policy and the methods and theories used by FPA and IR, while simultaneously contributing to a growing reflection on how to theorise a non-Western case. Its chapters offer a refreshing perspective by combining different sets of theories, empirical analyses, historical perspectives and insights from area studies. Empirically, chapters deal with different issues as well as varied bilateral relations and institutional settings. Conceptually, however, they ask similar questions about what is unique about Indian foreign policy and how to study it. The chapters also compel us to reconsider the meaning and boundary conditions of concepts (e.g. coalition government, strategic culture and sovereignty) in a non-Western context. This book will appeal to both specialists and students of Indian foreign policy and International Relations Theory.
Muni, S.D. and Rahul Mishra
Description: India’s Eastward Engagement: From Antiquity to Act East Policy presents India’s engagement with its extended eastern neighbours from ancient times to the present. It argues that this engagement has been long rooted in India’s geographical location, its civilizational evolution and historical transformations. The book critically examines all the important phases—Nehru and Post-Nehru periods, and Look East and Act East policies. It exposes the widely entertained myths about India’s eastward engagement and also underlines the prospective directions in which the Act East Policy may unfold in the years to come.
