Cross-Strait Relations in Pandemic Times

During the pandemic, China has been ratcheting up military pressure on Taiwan, leading to more cross-strait tension than ever and raising concerns about Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. Against the unsettled backdrop of COVID, the Sigur Center for Asian Studies held a roundtable of panelists to discuss U.S. security support to Taiwan, cross-strait military balance, Taiwanese attitudes toward China, as well as how these issues are influenced by deteriorating U.S.-China relations and November election results.

In this Asia Report, we present the answers to these questions from leading experts, including Elbridge Colby, co-founder of The Marathon Initiative and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, and Shelley Rigger, Brown Professor of Political Science at Davidson College.

Read the full Asia Report here.

How Are Rising Powers Responding to Results of the 2020 U.S. Election?

After four days of vote counting, news organizations on Nov 7 declared Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the winners of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. Although incumbent President Donald Trump refused to concede to Biden and vowed to legally challenge the result of the election, leaders around the world, including French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have congratulated Biden and Harris on their victory.

Given Biden’s track record as Vice President during the Obama administration, world leaders await drastically different U.S. policies compared to President Trump. What are the expectations of the Rising Powers on the upcoming leadership of Biden and Harris? In this Policy Alert, we examine the Rising Powers’ reactions to the results of the 2020 U.S. Election.

Read the full Policy Alert here.

Taiwan’s New Economic Prospects with the U.S. and Beyond

2020 has 2020 has given Taiwan unexpected opportunities for economic expansion and trade relations. A U.S.-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is gaining more momentum than ever. At the same time, the pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains concentrated in China, which is expediting manufacturing migration, reshoring, and “decoupling” to various degrees. How is the bilateral FTA expected to progress? And how is Taiwan shaping up to be an important actor in the current shifting global economic climate?

To answer these questions, the Sigur Center’s Taiwan Roundtable featured Her Excellency Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s Representative to the U.S. at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative’s Office, with a panel of leading experts, including Rupert Hammond-Chambers, President of U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, and Ambassador Kurt Tong, former U.S. Ambassador for APEC and a Partner of The Asia Group, to explore the prospects of the U.S.-Taiwan economic relationship and Taiwan’s future role in the global economy.

Read the full Asia Report covering the panel here.

What Are the Rising Powers’ Expectations as the 2020 U.S. Election Approaches?

After four years of President Donald Trump’s unconventional foreign policies, the 2020 U.S. Election has become the most anticipated political transition closely followed by all major powers around the world. With COVID infections surging in most countries, the results of the Presidential and Congressional election on November 3 not only lead to significant political impacts globally, but also generate serious consequences on the prospect of post-pandemic recovery.

In this RPI Policy Alert, we examine the Rising Powers’ expectations as the election day is around the corner.

Read the full Policy Alert here.

Rising Powers Evaluate the Quad’s Future

In the first week of October, the Quad – a strategic forum that includes Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. – held its second-ever foreign ministers meeting in Japan. Despite the anticipation of the meeting’s potential progress in transforming the Quad into an “Asian NATO,” the ministerial meeting in Tokyo did not lead to any joint statement nor significant deepening of security cooperation, while the U.S. stood out as the only participant who made specific remarks targeting China at the meeting.

Due to President Trump’s COVID diagnosis, Mike Pompeo had to cut visits to Mongolia and South Korea from his Asia trip, but the U.S. Secretary of State took the opportunity in Tokyo to rally support from Washington’s closest allies in the Indo-Pacific for a deeper collaboration against China’s regional influence and to accuse China of covering up and worsening the pandemic. Secretary Pompeo stated that it is “more critical now than ever that we collaborate to protect our people and partners from the Chinese Communist Party’s exploitation, corruption and coercion,” pointing to recent Chinese activities in the East and South China Seas, the Mekong region, the Himalayas, and the Taiwan Strait.

In contrast, Australia, Japan, and India made no specific mention of China or the Communist Party of China by name. Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne emphasized that the Quad “has a positive agenda” and that the region should be “governed by rules, not power.” Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said that the goal of the Quad should be “advancing the security and the economic interests of all countries having legitimate and vital interests in the region.” Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi expressed interest in expanding multilateral cooperation with European countries, stating that it is “important to cooperate with as many nations as possible that share these basic values and common rules.”

In this RPI Policy Alert, we survey the Rising Powers on how they evaluate the Quad’s future role in the Indo-Pacific amid the rising level of geopolitical competition in the region.

Read the full Policy Alert here.

Rising Powers and the Afghan Peace Process: How Do They See the Pros and Cons?

Peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government resumed in the second week of September, signaling the next iteration of complex negotiations against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since assuming office, President Donald Trump has been vocal about his commitment to pulling troops out of Afghanistan and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew to Doha to launch the latest talks. If successful, all American military personnel will leave Afghanistan by spring of 2021.

Challenges to a successful outcome is manifold: turmoil of Afghan domestic politics, intrusion from the broader region, and the inconsistent foreign policy of the United States on Afghanistan. Prior attempts to negotiate a roadmap to peace in Afghanistan include a series of meetings between China, the United States, and Russia in 2019, in which the major world powers notably convened without involving Afghanistan itself.

This year, more attempts were initiated for the peace process, which include the plan signed by the United States and Afghanistan on March 1st, stipulating an immediate cease-fire and a commitment by the Taliban that Afghanistan would not serve as a base for terrorist activities against the United States. Further talks for peace were scheduled to begin on March 10 but were paused over the issue of prisoner exchange. As talks subsequently resumed, however, Afghan Senior Vice President Amrullah Saleh was targeted in a convey bombing in Kabul, presumed to be by the Taliban.

With the consistent level of violence in Afghanistan, there is concern that President Trump’s plan to withdraw American troops will add to the region’s instability. Failure of any agreement brokered by the United States leaves room for other rising powers such as China and Russia to influence future negotiations and outcomes even if the process is now ostensibly intra-Afghan. In this RPI Policy Alert, we ask how the Rising Powers are reacting to the on again, off again peace talks on Afghanistan and how they view their interests being served.

Read the full Policy Alert here.

Multilaterals and Taiwan’s Role: How is Cooperation on Security, Health, and Travel Evolving Amidst a Pandemic?

Taiwan’s success story in the pandemic is bringing it unprecedented international attention. Against the backdrop of the current United Nations General Assembly meetings, the Sigur Center for Asian Studies’ Taiwan Roundtable had an in-depth discussion on how Taiwan’s international role may be played out more broadly in critical areas of international policing, travel, and health – all of which demand multilateral cooperation to be effective. This Asia Report reviews the reasons behind Taiwan’s exclusion from international organizations, explains the need of Taiwan’s international participation in functional organizations, and evaluates the strategy of promoting a greater international role for Taiwan.

Read the full Policy Brief here.

The China-Iran Deal in Broader Perspective: Asian Economic Integration or Geopolitical Maneuvering?

News of a massive increase in Chinese foreign investment in Iran has ricocheted across Asia, threatening to upset the geopolitical status quo and causing pundits to spill much ink over the implications. Details about the deal, which purportedly involves $400 billion in Chinese investments in infrastructure and other sectors in Iran over the next 25 years in return for access to a steady supply of discounted Iranian oil, was leaked by Iran and then neither confirmed nor denied by Beijing. To many, the move represents a failure of the US policy of “maximum pressure” designed to economically isolate Iran. To others, shocked by the brazen scale of the deal, the move suggests that China believes that it has little to lose in its otherwise deepening economic disputes with the US.

For Iran, the deal is an economic lifeline for an economy on the brink. For China, it’s viewed as a triple success: securing long-term access for its needed energy imports, the opportunity to lay more road and rail in the heart of its trans-Eurasian infrastructure development project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), all while directly challenging US efforts to economically isolate Iran.

For Pakistan, it’s a potential bonanza, provided it cooperates with Iran and ultimately serves as a potential thoroughfare for moving Chinese energy imports from the Indian Ocean up to China’s western border in Central Asia through pipelines. This would enable China to avoid the much longer maritime journey through the Strait of Malacca potential chokepoint in Southeast Asian waters.

For India, which is competing with China inside Iran with rivaling infrastructure projects, the deal could be considered a snub by Iran, and a sign of India’s diminished influence. India-Iran relations have deteriorated since India agreed to US demands to cut its imports of Iranian oil.

Port Politics: The Backstory

It is useful to understand the geostrategic significance of three obscure Indian Ocean ports: Gwadar in Pakistan, and Bandar Abbas and Chabahar in Iran. Gwadar is the jewel in the crown of China’s BRI, the promising port at the end of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a system of new roads and railways connecting Pakistan with Central Asia and China. India opposes CPEC because it transits through disputed Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, which India has claimed since partition in 1947.

To counter China’s growing economic clout, India has been working with partners to develop its own ambitious multi-country infrastructure initiatives in the region. The Iranian port of Bandar Abbas serves as the linchpin in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) for bringing Indian goods northward through Iran and Azerbaijan to reach Russia and Europe. And the Iranian port of Chabahar is the focal point of another major Indian initiative to bring Indian goods up through Iran and eastward into Afghanistan and Central Asia, thereby giving Afghanistan an alternative route to the sea so that it no longer has to rely solely on Pakistan.

Both ports could expand India’s engagement in Central Asia, Russia and Europe, and a deal was struck to allow an Indian company to manage the port at Chabahar. While other Indian firms had contracts to build the Chabahar-Zahedan railway connecting the port to Afghanistan, extended project delays frustrated Iran, which recently cancelled the contracts. Iran is now offering Chinese investors greater involvement in the port at Chabahar and possibly connecting it with China’s major port in Gwadar, Pakistan – moves that would extend China’s economic influence in the region and undermine Indian efforts to expand its influence.

Economic Reintegration: The Backstory to the Backstory

Plans for the China-Iran deal have been underway since 2016, when both nations adopted a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, building on decades of deepening economic relations. In this regard, the deal could be seen within the broader context of longstanding China-Iran relations.

China has also adopted Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and has become a major investor throughout the Middle East region. In July, the ninth China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF) was held virtually, at which members adopted plans to deepen cooperation. India, Russia and the European Union have also been deepening their economic ties with the Middle East. Therefore, it might be useful to consider the China-Iran deal within this larger context of economic integration between major economies and the Middle East more generally.

And, in an even broader perspective going beyond the Middle East, China’s BRI and India’s infrastructure initiatives could be viewed as just two parts of a much larger and longer-term processes of Asian economic integration that has been underway for the last few decades. Actually, it’s a process of re-integration because, after about 500 years of economic disintegration, the economies of the region have been rebuilding their trade and investment ties. While the BRI gets a lot of attention, there are in fact a vast number of other bilateral and regional initiatives for new transport and communications infrastructure underway, as well as increased efforts aimed at deepening trade, aid and financial integration throughout the region. From this perspective, Russia, China, India, Japan, Turkey, and even Iran, are all key players in this story, and the China-Iran investment deal could also be seen as just one piece of this bigger-picture process.

Whereas many western policy analysts view Iran in the context of contemporary US-Iran antagonisms, China more likely views Iran as a legitimate regional power and acknowledges the depth of its history as an ancient civilization, thereby making its 25-year investment commitment seem relatively trivial. India’s longstanding outlook on Iran is not much different.

While many view the China-Iran deal as driven by the geopolitical maneuvering of states, others see it as driven by the Asian economic integration process. In fact, it is likely that both dynamics are at play and are interactive – that the contours of geopolitical maneuvering at any moment are both shaped and made possible by the longer-term process of Asian economic integration. From this perspective, viewing the China-Iran deal within the zero-sum game of gains and setbacks by the various actors as they jockey for economic influence risks missing the bigger picture – that the process of Asian economic integration is likely to continue for decades to come, and China, India and Iran are all likely to play important roles in it.

Rick Rowden is Adjunct Professorial Lecturer in the School of International Studies at American University. He holds a Ph.D. from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) in New Delhi. He is the author of India-Africa Economic Relations in the 21st Century: Emerging Connections in South-South Economics” (Routledge, forthcoming 2021).

Views expressed are solely those of the author.

*Edit: There was a mistake on the image credit in the email. We regret the incorrect attribution and apologize for the error.

The China-Iran Deal in Broader Perspective: Asian Economic Integration or Geopolitical Maneuvering?

News of a massive increase in Chinese foreign investment in Iran has ricocheted across Asia, threatening to upset the geopolitical status quo and causing pundits to spill much ink over the implications. Details about the deal, which purportedly involves $400 billion in Chinese investments in infrastructure and other sectors in Iran over the next 25 years in return for access to a steady supply of discounted Iranian oil, was leaked by Iran and then neither confirmed nor denied by Beijing.

To many, the move represents a failure of the US policy of “maximum pressure” designed to economically isolate Iran. To others, shocked by the brazen scale of the deal, the move suggests that China believes that it has little to lose in its otherwise deepening economic disputes with the US.

In this Policy Brief, Dr. Rick Rowden, Adjunct Professorial Lecturer in the School of International Studies at American University and author of the forthcoming book “India-Africa Economic Relations in the 21st Century: Emerging Connections in South-South Economics,” offers his insights on how the China-Iran deal impacts the economic integration and geopolitical balance in the region.

Read the full Policy Brief here.

Policy Alert: How Are Rising Powers Viewing Shinzo Abe’s Legacy?

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, announced that he would resign from the position due to his worsening condition of ulcerative colitis – the same disease Abe has been battling for decades and ended his first stint as PM in 2007. Abe’s abrupt resignation comes at a time when Japan faces various uncertainties at home and abroad.

Domestically, Japan is challenged by an ongoing threat of COVID, the economic downturn caused by COVID, and the task of preparing for the upcoming Tokyo Olympic games. Internationally, there is a rising level of Chinese assertiveness in the region, intensifying geopolitical and economic competitions between the U.S. and China, and the uncertainty of future U.S. policy amid the upcoming Presidential election.

How do the Rising Powers perceive Abe’s political legacy and the absence of his leadership in the future? In this RPI Policy Alert, we survey the Rising Powers’ reactions to Abe’s sudden resignation. Read the full Policy Alert here.

Policy Alert: China’s Growing Pains the Rising Powers

In responding to criticism over its handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, China has adopted a new, more assertive “wolf warrior diplomacy,” but it has also taken a more aggressive stance in its territorial disputes. In this RPI Policy Alert, we take stock of the Rising Powers’ temper amidst the turbulence in the Indo-Pacific. Read the full Policy Alert here.

Policy Alert: Rising Powers Respond to Anti-Racism Protests

On May 25, 2020, George Floyd, an unarmed black man, was killed by police in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The gruesome act was caught on camera and widely shared on social media. Protests against police brutality and racism quickly spread across the United States and across the globe. In this RPI Policy Alert, we survey the Rising Powers’ response to these protests and their take on politics and race in the US, rarely if ever, holding up a mirror. Read the full Policy Alert here.

Policy Alert: Revisiting the World Order under a Pandemic – The Taiwan Factor

In this third installment of RPI’s Revisiting the World Order under a Pandemic Series, we provide an overview of perspectives from China, Taiwan, and the international community on how the pandemic is affecting cross-strait relations and how that dynamic is affecting the two sides’ place in the international community. For more insight on this topic, we encourage our readers to watch the video from the COVID-19 and Taiwan’s International Space Reimagined webinar hosted by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the East Asia National Resource Center. Read the full Policy Alert here.

Policy Alert: Revisiting the World Order under a Pandemic – China’s Prospects

RPI’s Special Series on Revisiting the World Order under a Pandemic continues in this Policy Alert, which focuses on how the COVID-19 pandemic is raising new debates on how to view the world order and power. In this issue, we focus on China’s prospects in a shifting world order with insights from Chinese scholars and international experts. Read the full Policy Alert here.

Policy Alert: Revisiting the World Order under a Pandemic

As the COVID-19 pandemic drags on, debate over the pandemic’s effects on the world order have started to take shape. Will the spread of the pandemic deal a deathblow to the liberal world order by undermining support for globalization? How is the virus affecting states’ sources of material power? Does the states’ ability to respond and contain the virus complicate our understandings of state capacity? Are donations of aid a successful strategy for a soft power blitz? Find out in the full RPI Policy Alert here.