Category: Blog

Policy Brief | June 2, 2022

With the looming presence of an authoritarian China and its deepening footprint in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and India are aligning on how they equally value the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Challenges in this maritime region come from a variety of sources, and the two democracies have their connects and disconnects while combating them. What are the key traditional and non-traditional maritime security threats facing the Indo-Pacific? How do Indian and American priorities compare, and what are the prospects for working jointly to secure their interests and objectives bilaterally and otherwise?    

To address these questions, the Rising Powers Initiative (RPI) at the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, George Washington University and the Department of International Studies, Political Science, and History, Christ University in Bangalore, invited a panel of leading experts, including Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director, Asia Program and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Nilanthi Samaranayake, Director, the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA)’s Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, with commentator Gurpreet Singh Khurana, missile warfare specialist of the Indian Navy and author, currently a Visiting Professor at Naval War College (NWC), Goa. In addition, there were brief interventions by two other specialists, P.K. Ghosh, a former Senior Fellow at IDSA and Indian Navy veteran, and Subramanyam Raju, Head of the Center for Maritime Studies at Pondicherry University. Deepa Ollapally, Research Professor of International Affairs and Director of RPI, moderated the event. This Roundtable is the fourth segment in the project that commenced last year on U.S.-India relations between Christ University and George Washington University. See event recording on YouTube. 

The first session of the Roundtable covers traditional military maritime security concerns and responses. The second session concentrates on non-traditional security, which does not get as much attention despite its direct impact on Indo-Pacific populations. It covers human security issues or soft security such as climate change and ocean pollution. The purpose of the Roundtable was to draw out the top priorities of the U.S. and India and consider how they intersect, according to U.S. and Indian experts, respectively. 

Read the full policy brief.

Policy Alert #248 | April 11, 2022

On April 7, after graphic images emerged of civilian killings in the city of Bucha just outside Kyiv, the United Nations General Assembly voted to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council over “gross and systematic violations and abuses of human rights.” Ukraine accused Russia of killing more than 300 civilians in Bucha, leading to an even greater condemnation of Russia from the international community, albeit with varying intensity across non-western rising powers. The resolution to eject Russia passed with 93 countries voting in favor, 24 voting against, and 58 abstaining. Notably, this represented a shift in Russia’s favor since the first UNGA vote to condemn Russia on March 2.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict appears to be entering a new phase: Russia is preparing to launch another offensive, this time concentrating its attacks on the eastern part of Ukraine. Russia’s offensive is now proceeding on two primary fronts, according to Ukrainian officials, after forces shifted initial efforts to take Kyiv: against the southeastern port city of Mariupol and in Ukraine’s far east, especially the contested Luhansk region. 

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have reportedly made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan, according to five people briefed on the talks. The plan would involve Ukraine dropping its aspiration to join NATO and declaring neutrality, in return for a ceasefire and Russia’s army withdrawing. However, in a televised statement, Mykhailo Podolyak, one of Ukraine’s peace negotiators, claimed the tone of peace talks had forever changed after evidence of the mass killings in Bucha. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed he is committed to pressing for peace despite Russian attacks on civilians but he renewed his plea for more weapons ahead of an expected surge in fighting in the country’s east.

Read the full policy alert.

Policy Alert #247 | March 24, 2022

Today marks one month since Russia ordered a “special military operation” and advanced into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. At least ten million Ukrainians have been displaced internally or have fled abroad as refugees. Thousands more people were able to escape cities under attack this week, but many remain trapped as humanitarian corridors keep failing. Intense fighting continues over several key places, including the capital of Kyiv and the strategic southern port city of Mariupol. If Russian troops took control of Mariupol, they would hold most of the stretch between the Donbas region in the east and Crimea in the south.

NATO has rejected Kyiv’s request for a no-fly zone, reasoning that the step would provoke Russia into a waging a larger war that could pit the U.S. and its allies against the nuclear-armed country. In a video posted on social media, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slammed NATO over the decision.

US President Biden arrived in Brussels on March 23 ahead of emergency meetings with NATO allies aimed at presenting a united front against Russia.  The US and its European allies plan to announce new sanctions for Russia and new humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Biden also plans to talk to European partners about China’s ties to Russia. The US is concerned Beijing will provide economic or military aid to Moscow. Biden discussed this concern with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a virtual meeting on March 18. European Union leaders are planning their own summit with Xi on April 1.

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed a proposed deal in full for the first time on March 14. The two sides have made significant progress on a tentative peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed some progress has been made, while the Kremlin stressed the conflict would end when the West took action to address Moscow’s security concerns. President Zelenskyy has raised hopes with recent statements that seem to accept that Ukraine will not be a part of NATO. But even a negotiated cease-fire seems a distant prospect, let alone a lasting peace.

Read the full policy alert.

Policy Alert #246 | February 28, 2022

On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally recognized the independence of the southeastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Known collectively as Donbas, the two territories have been led by pro-Russia separatists for nearly a decade. On February 24, Putin ordered a “special military operation” in Ukraine based on request from the heads of the Donbas regions to carry out what he called “peacekeeping functions.” Putin has invoked the idea of Donbas’s distinctive regional identity as a basis to “defend” its Russian-speaking people from a supposedly intolerant Ukraine. However, Russian forces continued to advance beyond Donbas into some of Ukraine’s largest cities. 

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba declared Putin had “launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.” Russia’s actions have been swiftly condemned by several nations, which have imposed devastating packages of sanctions and other economic measures to punish Moscow. The European Union for the first time will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons, in a show of support for Ukraine. The EU is also banning Russian planes from its airspace. Following pressure from the UK government, British energy giant BP said it would exit its nearly 20% stake in Russian government-controlled oil producer Rosneft. Western governments joined by Japan said they would cut off a number of Russian banks from the SWIFT network, an international payment system. 

Citing “aggressive statements” by NATO and tough financial sanctions, Putin announced that he had put his nuclear deterrence forces into high alert. On February 27, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed Ukraine and Russia would conduct the first diplomatic talks, with delegations from both countries meeting at the Ukrainian border with Belarus. The two countries would meet near the Pripyat River “without preconditions.” 

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Policy Brief | February 15, 2022

When asked to give the top three convergences and top three divergences they see in U.S.-India relations, here is what a group of next generation Indian thought leaders in South India offered.

Workshop and Survey

A survey was conducted following an interactive workshop  on Convergences and Divergences in U.S.-India Perspectives held by The George Washington University (Washington D.C.)  and Christ University (Bangalore) in Fall 2021. Discussions between Indian students/scholars and U.S. based experts at the workshop showed that the younger demographic wants more openness, engagement and cooperation on all fronts of the U.S.- India relationship. These areas include the China question, the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, digital tech and e-commerce. 

Now we look to the results of the rich survey data to gain a more precise understanding of what Indian millennials and Gen-Z think of the relationship and how it compares to the workshop discussion. The survey reflected many of the points discussed during the student-expert exchanges, but also had some surprises.

Read the full policy brief.

Policy Alert #245 | February 11, 2022

In the run-up to the Winter Olympics in Beijing, China had insisted on keeping politics and sports separate. But as the 2022 Olympics are now officially underway, the excitement of the sports is being largely drowned out by political tensions. Much of the criticism surrounding the Beijing Olympics has focused on China’s treatment of its minority Uyghurs. The opening ceremony appeared to meet this criticism head-on. It featured representatives of all 56 officially recognized Chinese ethnic groups, including Uyghurs, standing together and passing the Chinese flag across Beijing’s National Stadium.

Adding to the controversy, only one day before the opening ceremonies began, India joined the U.S.-led diplomatic boycott of the Olympics. This decision was made after China included a PLA soldier who was involved in a deadly border skirmish in 2020 with Indian troops in the torch relay ahead of the opening ceremonies.

In addition, just hours before the opening ceremonies, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who flew to China for the Games. It was the first face-to-face meeting Xi has had with another world leader in nearly two years. In a joint statement after the meeting, China and Russia declared a “no limits” partnership. Beijing supported Russia’s demand that Ukraine should not be admitted into NATO, while Moscow opposed any form of independence for Taiwan. The agreement marked the most detailed and assertive statement of Russian and Chinese resolve to work together. 

Read the full policy alert.

Policy Alert #244 | January 28, 2022

As more than 100,000 Russian troops amass near Ukraine’s borders, tensions between Ukraine and Russia are heightening. Vladimir Putin has defended the troop buildup, calling it a mere “military exercise.” However, in 2014 Russia invaded Crimea, raising fears in the West that Putin’s recent actions are in preparation for another invasion.

On January 21, 2022, US and Russian diplomats met in Geneva to avoid conflict in Ukraine. No major breakthroughs were made but the two sides agreed to continue dialogue. “Based on the conversations we’ve had… I think there are… a means to address some of the mutual concerns that we have about security,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated. But he also warned, “If any Russian military forces move across Ukraine’s border… it will be met with swift, severe and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies.” 

Moscow issued Washington a set of demands, including guarantees that NATO will halt its eastward expansion, rule out membership for Ukraine and other former Soviet countries, and roll back its military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe. The US has delivered the written response Russia requested, in which Blinken confirmed that the US rejected Moscow’s central demand that NATO never admit Ukraine. A follow-up discussion with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected in the coming days now that the document is under review in Moscow.

Read the full policy alert.

Asia Report #57 | January 19, 2022

United Nations Resolution 2758 seating the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at the UN passed its 50th anniversary in 2021. Fifty years on, China continues its campaign to influence the diplomatic relations and international recognition of Taiwan. While the PRC’s UN seat is undisputed, the deleterious impact of Taiwan’s exclusion from multilateral organizations and constraints on its global engagement became more than evident in a pandemic hit world. 

The Sigur Center for Asian Studies dedicated its final Roundtable of 2021 to unpack these concerns and discuss the implications. The discussants included keynote speaker, Liang-Yu Wang, Deputy Representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office-U.S., and panelists Pasha L. Hsieh, Associate Professor and Dean at Singapore Management University Yong Pung How School of Law, and Michael Mazza, Nonresident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The discussion was moderated by Deepa Ollapally, Associate Director of the Sigur Center. 

Read the full report.

Policy Alert #243 | January 13, 2022

The Rising Powers have largely managed to keep the highly contagious Omicron at bay even as the variant rages in other parts of the world, but they are now bracing for what may be an inevitable surge.

Read the full policy alert.

Policy Alert #242 | December 13, 2021

On December 9-10, 2021, US President Joe Biden hosted the virtual Summit for Democracy focused on three pillars: countering authoritarianism, fighting corruption, and promoting respect for human rights. Biden kicked off the two-day gathering with a dire warning that democratic rights and norms are under threat around the world, including in the US. The exclusion of China and Russia drew swift reactions from the countries’ leaders, who rejected the US’ notion of who is a “democratic country” and who is not eligible for such status. The summit comes after the US decision to stage a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing over human rights abuses in Xinjiang. 

US officials have promised action following the gathering, but preparations were overshadowed by questions over some of the invitees’ democratic credentials. The event brought together democracies such as France and Sweden but also countries including the Philippines and Poland, where activists say democracy is under threat. In Asia, some US allies such as Japan and South Korea were invited, while others like Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam were excluded. An invitation was extended to Pakistan, although it did not attend. Hungary was the only EU country not to receive an invitation. An invitation to Taiwan outraged China, although it did not attend as a sovereign state. 

Read the full policy alert.

Asia Report #56 | December 9, 2021

As an unprepared world reeled under the onslaught of the pandemic, Taiwan stood out for its early success in managing the spread of the virus. Taiwan continues to outperform other states in handling Covid-19, and a big reason is the way in which digital technology is being skillfully deployed for public health purposes within a demanding, vibrant democracy. How was Taiwan able to “hack” the pandemic and what does it suggest for the broader international community? 

To take up this question, the Sigur Center for Asian Studies convened a Roundtable featuring Taiwan’s Digital Minister Audrey Tang, and two leading experts, Chelsea Chou, Associate Professor in the Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University and Lorien Abroms, Professor at the Milken Institute School of Public Health, The George Washington University.  The event was moderated by Deepa Ollapally, Associate Director of the Sigur Center. 

Read the full Asia Report. 

Policy Brief | November 2021

Event Report from Convergence and Divergence in U.S.-Indian Perspectives: Towards Bridging the Gap

How do Indian Gen-Z and millennials studying internationals and coming of age in a post-liberalization India perceive India-U.S. ties? Given nearly 15 years of increasingly strong strategic relations between the two countries, we might expect that millennials and G-Z would take close India-U.S. ties almost for granted. Or do they share a more complex view like earlier generations who witnessed a rockier bilateral relationship? Looking ahead, what do these budding IR scholars see as the key issues that bind India and the U.S. and what do they think needs to be done for even stronger bonds? 

A recent Workshop held by George Washington University in Washington, D.C. and Christ University in Bangalore gave graduate and undergraduate university students studying international relations across South India the chance to weigh in with their views and questions on the topic of “Convergence and Divergence in US-India Perspectives: Towards Bridging the Gap.” Nearly four hundred students had the opportunity to engage with several leading U.S. based experts on issues ranging from economics and security to political values and soft power. 

The Workshop sought to elicit student reactions to experts who put forth what they saw as the top three convergences and divergences. Across three panels, a lead U.S. foreign policy speaker was followed by two advanced graduate students who served as respondents. The first panel focused on Economics and Technology, the second on Security and Strategy, with the final one on Political Values and Soft Power. 

What did the experts offer as their top picks for U.S-India convergences and divergences and what did the younger demographic have to say about it? What conclusions can we draw about perspectives on future relations? 

Read the full policy brief.

Policy Alert #241 | November 16, 2021

The 26th session of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) came to an end on November 13, 2021. The main task for COP26 was to finalize the rules and procedures for implementation of the Paris Agreement. After two weeks of intense deliberations, nearly 200 countries adopted The Glasgow Climate Pact.

The most consequential change was arguably language that requests parties to attend COP27 in Egypt next year, with updated plans on how to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The question now is, will countries actually do it? The Pact expressed “deep regrets” over the failure of developed countries to deliver on their $100 billion promise to help developing nations adapt to the climate crisis. The Pact has asked them to arrange this money urgently and in every year until 2025. 

Notably, the Glasgow Climate Pact is the first UN climate deal to explicitly mention the need to move away from coal power and subsidies for fossil fuels. However, in the face of lobbying from top fossil-fuel-producing countries, this language was watered down during the negotiations. China and India successfully pushed for a last-minute change to the crucial phrase, saying they would agree only to “phase-down unabated coal,” rather than “phase out.”

In an unexpected development, the United States and China announced a Joint Declaration on Climate Change. US Climate Envoy John Kerry and Chinese climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua, were seen consulting with each other frequently on the sidelines of the conference. The world’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters cooperated with one another more than expected considering the strained ties between Washington and Beijing.

Many world leaders expressed disappointment with the climate deal that emerged in Glasgow. “We’re all well aware that, collectively, our climate ambition and action to date have fallen short on the promises made in Paris,” proclaimed Alok Sharma, President for COP26, after the last-minute change to the fossil fuels provision. But if governments follow through on commitments made during COP26 and ramp up ambition in the next few years, the goals of the Paris Agreement could be within reach.

In this Policy Alert, we examine the rising powers’ reactions to COP26.

Read the full policy alert.

Policy Alert #240 | November 3, 2021

The Group of Twenty (G20) convened on October 30-31, 2021 for the Rome Summit, ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) on October 31 – November 12, 2021. Leaders of the world’s 20 biggest economies – with the exception of China, Russia, Japan and Mexico – met for the first time in-person since the start of the pandemic. On the first day, health and the economy were top of the agenda, with the subsequent Rome Declaration notably establishing a global minimum tax rate, which will see the profits of large businesses taxed at least 15%. The more difficult climate discussions were saved for the second day but hopes the Rome Summit might pave the way to success in Glasgow have dimmed considerably. The G20 appeared to make few commitments to strong measures necessary to avert the threat of climate change. UN Secretary-General António Guterres summarized his thoughts on the G20 in a tweet: “While I welcome the #G20’s recommitment to global solutions, I leave Rome with my hopes unfulfilled — but at least they are not buried… onwards to #COP26 in Glasgow.”

Read the full policy alert. 

Policy Alert #239 | October 25, 2021

Just as the Rising Powers are gearing up for a post-pandemic economic recovery, China, India and even Japan are finding themselves staring at a huge and unfolding energy crisis, mostly involving coal shortages. Given enormous Chinese demand for coal, authorities are taking extraordinary steps to intervene, ordering coal miners to spare no expense in boosting output. Chinese commentary went on the offensive regarding the country’s predicament, touting how well positioned it was to meet the challenge. China’s willingness to pay whatever it takes for energy supplies is bad news for the rest of Asia and Europe, which will face elevated gas and electricity prices in the winter as they compete with China for supply. On the other hand, some Indian officials sought to downplay the seriousness of the energy crisis as the domestic debate heated up about what went wrong. Further complicating the picture is mounting pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy as world leaders prepare for the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference in November. 

Who’s blaming whom and what’s the prognosis for Rising Powers? 

Read the full policy alert.